# Dragons v Titans — NRL Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 18 – 38 Titans

_Titans muscle past Dragons._

Half time: 12 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 56% / Titans 44% · St George Venues Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah · Sun, 26 July, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (6' 1st Tipped 🎯), Kyle Flanagan (32'), Jacob Liddle (68') · Titans: Phillip Sami (9' Tipped ⚡), Jaylan De Groot (13'), Jaylan De Groot (26'), Oliver Pascoe (57'), Jayden Campbell (62' Tipped ⚡), Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 56% | Lost |
| Titans | 44% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.7 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 21 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 21 July 2026, 06:59 pm · Last updated: 26 July 2026, 03:46 pm_

Dragons 18–38 Titans in NRL Round 21 at St George Venues Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Some games are won by precision, others by power. The Titans' 38–18 win over the Dragons at St George Venues Jubilee Stadium was a case of both. With a completion rate of 90%, the Titans were the model of efficiency. Meanwhile, they outmuscled the Dragons, posting 1,953 run metres to the home side's 1,585. That discipline with the ball, coupled with an ambition to push hard on the ground, set the platform for victory.

The match began with Dragons' Tyrell Sloan touching down first at the sixth minute mark. However, Phillip Sami and Jaylan De Groot quickly turned the tide for the Titans. By the 25th minute, De Groot had his second try, putting the Titans up 14–6. The Dragons kept close early, with Kyle Flanagan reducing the gap, but the Titans' patience saw them into the half-time sheds with an 18–12 lead.

The second half belonged to the Titans. Oliver Pascoe scored in the 57th minute, and Jayden Campbell followed three minutes later, extending the lead to 30–12. Jacob Liddle's try offered a flicker of resurgence for the Dragons, but Tino Fa'asuamaleaui's late score extinguished it for good.

Possession stats mirrored the match's narrative: Titans had 53% of the ball, turning that slight edge into a decisive one. Their efficiency was underscored by just five errors compared to the Dragons' ten. The Titans also dominated in attack, breaking the Dragons' line eight times to four and racking up 31 tackle breaks to 26. These numbers speak to a more disciplined, structured game plan paying dividends.

Discipline was key. Titans conceded only two penalties to the Dragons' three, a small but telling detail in a game where control mattered. Even their kicking was precise, notching up 738 kick metres to keep their opposition pinned back and stretch their defensive line at will.

Pre-match predictions by Alphr's model were sorely tested. It favoured the Dragons by 0.7, only for the Titans to run away with a 20-point win. Titans' pre-game stats suggested they preferred a forward-heavy approach, with their forwards rated at 805 compared to the Dragons' 702. That depth in the pack translated into 614 post-contact metres, wearing down their opponents over the eighty minutes.

Both teams came into the contest with patchy form, Dragons having won once in their last five games, while the Titans had claimed two victories. Recent form wasn't decisive, but the Titans showed a knack for lifting when it mattered. Wins and misses, all of it, painted a picture of two teams on divergent paths, at least on this day.

In hindsight, the Titans brought clarity where the Dragons had chaos. Titans' balance between a disciplined approach and decisive attacking thrusts was the difference. Their ability to execute a game plan and exploit the Dragons' lapses proved pivotal. As it stands, the Titans' calculated aggression and superior structure triumphed, lending credence to the notion that sometimes, patience and precision can be the sharpest swords.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| Titans | 18 | 20 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **90%** |
| 1,585 | Run metres | **1,953** |
| 526 | Post-contact metres | **614** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 26 | Tackle breaks | **31** |
| 8 | Offloads | 8 |
| **90.6%** | Effective tackle % | 88.3% |
| 31 | Missed tackles | **26** |
| 10 | Errors | **5** |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| 660 | Kick metres | **738** |

**Model Report Card**

Titans defied the model's 56% prediction for Dragons, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.7 but the actual margin was 20 points. Titans led 12–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (114 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 10 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Titans's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Titans have a 42% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 9' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 13' Try — Jaylan De Groot (Titans) — 6-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 25' Try — Jaylan De Groot (Titans) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 32' Try — Kyle Flanagan (Dragons) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 57' Try — Oliver Pascoe (Titans) — 12-24 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 61' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 12-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 68' Try — Jacob Liddle (Dragons) — 16-32 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 77' Try — Tino Fa'asuamaleaui (Titans) — 18-36 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dragons to win @ $1.91 (edge +5.4%) — model probability 55.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons -0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dragons 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dragons are the call at 56%, but Titans stay live at 44%. The ratings say otherwise: Titans sit 105 ELO points clear, 1344 to 1239, so the model is backing Dragons against the ratings gap. Form leans Titans' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Dragons.

On paper Titans shade it, ahead on 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Dragons, which says Venue Advantage carry the most weight. Lean Dragons, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 3-9 at home this year. Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year. Titans have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dragons 17th against Titans 16th.

The market has Dragons favourites, Dragons $1.91 and Titans $1.92, with the line at Dragons -0.5 and the total at 45.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 14.7 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.7 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 5 · Titans 5 |
| Last meeting | Titans 38-18 |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons at home | 3-9 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 17th · Titans 16th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Titans 0% |
| Market | Dragons $1.91 · Titans $1.92 |
| Line | Dragons -0.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 14.7 pens/g · 0.7 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Titans

**Todd Smith** — 114 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 3W–11L | 21% |
| Titans | 5W–7L | 42% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Todd Smith officiates, Titans have won 5 of 12 games (42%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 3 from 14 (21%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Titans get a +1.6 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Dragons's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 16.8pts | Avg Score | 23.0pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Conceded | 27.6pts |
| -5.2pts | Avg Margin | -4.6pts |
| 1590.4m | Run Metres | 1640.6m |
| 3.0 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 371.2 | Tackles | 358.6 |
| 13.0 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | R14 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 W · R20 L | 16.8 |
| Titans | R15 L · R16 W · R17 L · R19 L · R20 W | 23.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dragons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Titans | 22 – 14 | Dragons | Titans 51% ✓ |
| 2025 | R6 | Dragons | 38 – 16 | Titans | not priced |
| 2024 | R24 | Dragons | 32 – 16 | Titans | not priced |
| 2024 | R1 | Titans | 4 – 28 | Dragons | not priced |
| 2023 | R6 | Titans | 20 – 18 | Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.35 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 10th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 11th-ranked left edge attack (1.24 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (2.06 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.35/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.06/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.24/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 0.47/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.59/g (def 8th) | 1.41/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.59/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 0.65/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.53/g (def 16th (weak)) | 0.82/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.65/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 13 | 12 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 156m/g | 197m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.4% | 85.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 59 | 29 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 656m/g | 761m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.6/g | 14.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.1/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 73.8% | 77.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 12 | 11 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 555m/g | 476m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.8% | 89.9% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.68/g (lg 0.41) +66% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.21) +67% · Fullbacks 0.57/g (lg 0.41) +39% · 2nd Rows 0.62/g (lg 0.47) +32%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at St George Venues Jubilee Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/14g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Setu Tu | WG | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 49% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Mathew Feagai | CE | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 1/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 8 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·2·0) | 10/17g | 2/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 7/7g | 1/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 20% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | 5/8 | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 15 | Luciano Leilua | RES | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Halangahu | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Dean Ieremia | WG | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 7 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Jaylan De Groot | CE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 13' 26' |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 11 in 17g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·1·1·1·3·0·0) | 7/13g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 9' |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 8 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 62' |
| 7 | Zane Harrison | HB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Oliver Pascoe | HK | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 11 | Arama Hau | 2R | 6 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Chris Randall | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Patston | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Bai | INT | 2 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Titans hold the ELO advantage (1344 vs 1239), but the market favours Dragons (@1.91). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1239 · Titans 1344 · ELO difference: 105 in favour of Titans

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 702 | 805 | Titans +103 |
| Backs | 767 | 836 | Titans +69 |
| Halves | 715 | 858 | Titans +143 |
| Hooker | 771 | 852 | Titans +81 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Titans |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Titans |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Titans |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Titans |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Titans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 56%** — Dragons predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-dragons-v-titans
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-26 05:46 UTC (latest tip update)