# Cowboys v Broncos — NRL Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Cowboys v Broncos
Sat, 25 July, 07:35 pm AEST · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · Round 21

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.72 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 53.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 2 · Predicted total: 43

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.0pts | Avg Score | 15.4pts |
| 28.8pts | Avg Conceded | 28.0pts |
| -9.8pts | Avg Margin | -12.6pts |
| 1559.4m | Run Metres | 1548.2m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 353.2 | Tackles | 353.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | R14 L · R16 L · R17 W · R19 W · R20 L | 19.0 |
| Broncos | R14 L · R15 L · R17 L · R18 L · R20 W | 15.4 |

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-25 11:30 UTC (latest tip update)