# Bulldogs v Warriors — NRL Round 21 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 18 – 6 Warriors

_Bulldogs let the dogs loose on Warriors._

Half time: 12 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 42% / Warriors 58% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 25 July, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Stephen Crichton (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jacob Preston (12' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Kiraz (47') · Warriors: Chanel Harris-Tavita (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 58% | Lost |
| Bulldogs | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.5 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 21 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 21 July 2026, 06:59 pm · Last updated: 25 July 2026, 07:24 pm_

Bulldogs 18–6 Warriors in NRL Round 21 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warriors had their moments, but the Bulldogs proved too strong, taking an 18–6 win at Accor Stadium. The Warriors couldn't capitalise on their effective tackling, which at 84% slightly edged the Bulldogs' 81.6%. Chanel Harris-Tavita's try in the 74th minute was a rare highlight in an otherwise ineffective attacking performance. Their struggles were clear: only one line break compared to the Bulldogs’ seven. Fifteen errors and a 73% completion rate didn't help their cause.

Possession was nearly even, with the Bulldogs just ahead at 52%. But they made it count. Stephen Crichton set the tone, opening the scoring in the 5th minute. Jacob Preston and Jacob Kiraz added tries in the 11th and 46th minutes, putting the Bulldogs in control. The Warriors' defence had its moments but couldn't stop the Bulldogs when it mattered. Despite having higher-rated forwards and halves, the Warriors couldn't turn that into a win.

The Warriors averaged more points in recent games, scoring 24.4 per match compared to the Bulldogs’ 21, but they fell short here. Their errors compounded their woes, and even conceding fewer penalties couldn't offset their messy handling.

In contrast, the Bulldogs were cleaner, completing 85% of their sets and making just 10 mistakes. Their attacking flair was evident, breaking through the Warriors’ defence seven times. The Bulldogs didn't waste their opportunities, with 587 post-contact metres showing their resilience and intent to outmuscle the Warriors pack.

Kicking metres told a tale of dominance: the Bulldogs kicked 759 metres, well ahead of the Warriors' 599. Their tactical kicking game created a territorial advantage, continuously pushing the Warriors back into their own half. The battle of the boots was decisively won.

Pre-match predictions favoured the Warriors due to a higher overall rating, but the Bulldogs had other plans. The model's expectation of a narrow 2.5-point win for the Warriors underestimated the Bulldogs' ability to seize control. The match's modest 24 points fell well below the predicted 45, as both sides displayed rugged defences.

Despite the Bulldogs coming in with lower positional strength ratings across the board, they showed that grit and execution can outmatch potential. The Bulldogs’ 4/17 run against the model's odds was a notable deviation, not just covering the 4.5-point spread but reversing expectations entirely.

In the end, the Warriors' inability to convert opportunities was their downfall, as the Bulldogs played smart, capitalising on mistakes and key moments.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| Warriors | 0 | 6 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| **1,729** | Run metres | 1,588 |
| **587** | Post-contact metres | 526 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 46 | Tackle breaks | **47** |
| 19 | Offloads | 19 |
| 81.6% | Effective tackle % | **84.0%** |
| 47 | Missed tackles | **46** |
| **10** | Errors | 15 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **6** |
| **759** | Kick metres | 599 |

**Model Report Card**

Bulldogs defied the model's 58% prediction for Warriors, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.5 but the actual margin was 12 points. The game's 24 points came in 21 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 4/17 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (302 career games). The combined score of 24 points was 19 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Bulldogs's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 11' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 46' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 74' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 18-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.53 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 57.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 3 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 58%, but Bulldogs stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 189 ELO points clear, 1614 to 1426. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Warriors.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warriors by 2.5, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Warriors have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Bulldogs took the most recent meeting 18-6 in 2026 Round 21.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 10th against Warriors 2nd.

The market has Warriors favourites, Bulldogs $2.52 and Warriors $1.53, with the line at Bulldogs +4.5 and the total at 43.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 16.4 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 4 · Warriors 6 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 18-6 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 7-5 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 10th · Warriors 2nd |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 0% · Warriors 100% |
| Market | Bulldogs $2.52 · Warriors $1.53 |
| Line | Bulldogs +4.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 16.4 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 302 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 15W–14L | 52% |
| Warriors | 16W–18L | 47% |

Avg total: 42.9 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Bulldogs 15W–14L (52%) and Warriors 16W–18L (47%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.0pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Conceded | 14.8pts |
| 5.8pts | Avg Margin | 9.6pts |
| 1754.6m | Run Metres | 1747.8m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 7.0 |
| 346.8 | Tackles | 342.6 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | R14 W · R16 W · R17 W · R19 L · R20 W | 21.0 |
| Warriors | R15 L · R16 W · R17 L · R19 W · R20 W | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R23 | Bulldogs | 32 – 14 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R25 | Warriors | 18 – 34 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R18 | Bulldogs | 13 – 12 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R11 | Bulldogs | 12 – 24 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R4 | Warriors | 16 – 14 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.41 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 3rd there (0.88 conceded/game). Key man: Kiraz, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.06 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 10th there (1.65 conceded/game). Key man: Clark, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.41/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 9th) | 1.47/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.24/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.65/g (def 10th) | 2.06/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.41/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.06/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.41/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 9 | 12 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 252m/g | 164m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.6% | 85.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 44 | 50 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 816m/g | 664m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.5/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.1% | 78% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 11 | 19 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 479m/g | 595m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 8.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 88.9% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Fullbacks 0.47/g (lg 0.41) +15% · Centres 0.82/g (lg 0.72) +14% · Wingers 1.17/g (lg 1.28) -9%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Wingers 1.35/g (lg 1.28) +5% · 2nd Rows 0.43/g (lg 0.47) -9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 5/30g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 12/38g | 44% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 3 | Matt Burton | CE | 5 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/8g | 18/45g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Enari Tuala | CE | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/11g | 6/18g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Jethro Rinakama | WG | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 1/1g | 6/10g | 37% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Stephen Crichton | 5/8 | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 15/32g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/18g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/45g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/30g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 9/34g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 10/31g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 23% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/37g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Sean O'Sullivan | RES | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Curran | INT | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·2) | 0/2g | 7/29g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/19g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Lipoi Hopoi | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/15g | 3% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 17 in 16g | 10/10g (1·1·1·2·2·0·0·1·1·1) | 8/13g | 6/22g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 65% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 1/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 12 in 11g | 12/10g (0·2·2·2·0·2·1·0·2·1) | 4/5g | 0/1g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.65 AI 81% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 16% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/13g | 1/17g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/12g | 3/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | RES | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | INT | 5 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 34% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1426 · Warriors 1614 · ELO difference: 189 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 945 | 1102 | Warriors +158 |
| Backs | 946 | 1076 | Warriors +130 |
| Halves | 891 | 1135 | Warriors +244 |
| Hooker | 895 | 1083 | Warriors +188 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Warriors predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r21-bulldogs-v-warriors
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-25 09:24 UTC (latest tip update)