# Warriors v Dragons — NRL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 20 – 12 Dragons

_Warriors hit back to march past Dragons._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 75% / Dragons 25% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Sat, 18 July, 05:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Adam Pompey (4' 1st), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (32' Tipped ⚡), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (45' Tipped ⚡) · Dragons: Clinton Gutherson (13'), Hamish Stewart (36')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 75% | Won |
| Dragons | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.4 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 July 2026, 06:43 pm · Last updated: 18 July 2026, 07:27 pm_

Warriors 20–12 Dragons in NRL Round 20 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Warriors dominated the run metres, racking up 1,960 to the Dragons' 1,391. That edge in yardage was crucial in their 20-12 victory over the Dragons at Go Media Stadium. Trailing by two at half-time, the Warriors turned it around in the second half, finding the try line when it mattered.

Adam Pompey kick-started the scoring with a try just three minutes in, putting the Warriors ahead early. The Dragons answered back swiftly with Clinton Gutherson crossing the line at the 13-minute mark, balancing the scoreline. The see-saw battle continued with Alofiana Khan-Pereira and Hamish Stewart trading tries to bring it to 10-all. The Dragons snagged a slim 12-10 advantage at the break, but the Warriors were far from done.

Dallin Watene-Zelezniak's try early in the second half pushed the Warriors in front for good. The Warriors held onto possession for 55% of the match, which made their task easier. The completion rates were close, but it was in those extra metres gained that they found their edge. Six line breaks to four told the same story: the Warriors were more efficient with their time in attack.

However, it wasn't all smooth sailing. The Warriors were far from faultless, missing 31 tackles compared to the Dragons' 21. The Warriors' defensive lapses could have been their downfall if not for their attacking edge. The Dragons were slippery in contact, notching 31 tackle breaks as they tried to claw their way back.

Despite the Dragons' valiant effort, including nine offloads to keep the game alive, their defence couldn't hold the Warriors' determined surges. Strong defensive ratings going in weren't enough to stop the Warriors' attack when it really got rolling.

The Dragons might take some solace in having covered the 14.5-point line that many experts had set prior to the game. Alphr's model had the Warriors as favourites with a predicted margin of 13.4 points, so even though the final score was closer than anticipated, the result was more or less on point. The total points stayed well under the expected 46.5, aligning with the model's under call.

Both sides walked in with two wins from their last five outings, and similar yardage numbers were expected. But it was the Warriors' superior line breaks and knack for capitalising on possession that made the difference. In the end, the Warriors' ability to grind out crucial metres and break defensive lines proved decisive. That's rugby league for you. Moments of brilliance often shine brighter than stats on the board.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 10 | 10 | 20 |
| Dragons | 12 | 0 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 83% |
| **1,960** | Run metres | 1,391 |
| **649** | Post-contact metres | 490 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 21 | Tackle breaks | **31** |
| 2 | Offloads | **9** |
| 86.6% | Effective tackle % | **93.7%** |
| 31 | Missed tackles | **21** |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 645 | Kick metres | **671** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 13.4 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Warriors trailed 10–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 20–12. The model went 5/17 on this match. Dragons covered the 14.5-point line. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 13' Try — Clinton Gutherson (Dragons) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 32' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 35' Try — Hamish Stewart (Dragons) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 44' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 14-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.18 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 75.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 13 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warriors here: 75% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 364 ELO points clear, 1609 to 1245.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warriors by 13.4, with the two sides combining for about 41. Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Warriors have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 20-12 in 2026 Round 20.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Warriors 2nd against Dragons 17th.

The market has Warriors favourites, Warriors $1.18 and Dragons $4.90, with the line at Warriors -14.5 and the total at 46.5.

Dragons come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 6 · Dragons 4 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 20-12 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-4 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 2nd · Dragons 17th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Dragons 0% |
| Market | Warriors $1.18 · Dragons $4.90 |
| Line | Warriors -14.5 · total 46.5 |
| Rest gap | Warriors 7d · Dragons 14d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 23.2pts |
| 7.6pts | Avg Margin | -2.8pts |
| 1683.4m | Run Metres | 1693.8m |
| 6.6 | Line Breaks | 2.8 |
| 353.8 | Tackles | 363.0 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 13.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R13 L · R15 L · R16 W · R17 L · R19 W | 24.0 |
| Dragons | R13 W · R14 L · R16 L · R17 L · R18 W | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Dragons | 12 – 30 | Warriors | Warriors 61% ✓ |
| 2025 | R24 | Warriors | 14 – 10 | Dragons | not priced |
| 2025 | R10 | Dragons | 14 – 15 | Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | R7 | Dragons | 30 – 12 | Warriors | not priced |
| 2023 | R26 | Warriors | 18 – 6 | Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.44 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 16th there (1.56 conceded/game). Key man: Watene-Zelezniak, 16 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 3rd there (0.88 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.44/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.38/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.06/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.19/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.94/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.44/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.69/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 1.44/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.06/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.69/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.56/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 5 | 3 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 164m/g | 158m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 88.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 47 · 33 | 31 · 56 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 654m/g | 660m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.6/g | 13.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78% | 73.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 9 | 6 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 592m/g | 556m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 92.6% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.36/g (lg 0.21) +71% · Fullbacks 0.58/g (lg 0.41) +41% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.47) +34%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.83/g (lg 0.72) +15% · Fullbacks 0.46/g (lg 0.41) +12% · Wingers 1.18/g (lg 1.28) -8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/17g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 16 in 15g | 11/10g (2·1·1·1·2·2·0·0·1·1) | 9/15g | 23/39g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.53 AI 80% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/10g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 9/37g | 24% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (0·0·2·2·2·0·2·1·0·2) | 4/5g | 3/3g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.57 AI 85% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 32' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 15/32g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 3/19g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 0/16g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 2/38g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 4/20g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/15g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/18g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 17% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Leka Halasima | INT | 5 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 10/17g | 34% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 1/4g | 16% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 2 | Setu Tu | WG | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Mathew Feagai | CE | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 2/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 8 in 16g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0·2) | 5/16g | 3/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | 5/8 | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 11% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Halangahu | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1609 · Dragons 1245 · ELO difference: 364 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1146 | 741 | Warriors +405 |
| Backs | 1129 | 730 | Warriors +399 |
| Halves | 1099 | 773 | Warriors +326 |
| Hooker | 1123 | 725 | Warriors +398 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Warriors predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-18 09:27 UTC (latest tip update)