# Titans v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 38 – 32 Sea Eagles

_Titans tower over a gallant Sea Eagles._

Half time: 28 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 40% / Sea Eagles 60% · Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast · Sun, 19 July, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Dean Ieremia (9' Tipped ⚡), Oliver Pascoe (17'), Oliver Pascoe (27'), Jojo Fifita (34' Tipped ⚡), AJ Brimson (39'), Beau Fermor (58'), Jojo Fifita (69' Tipped ⚡) · Sea Eagles: Tom Trbojevic (2' 1st), Jason Saab (5' Tipped ⚡), Jason Saab (23' Tipped ⚡), Haumole Olakau'atu (54' Tipped ⚡), Reuben Garrick (63'), Tolutau Koula (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 60% | Lost |
| Titans | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.2 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 July 2026, 07:55 pm · Last updated: 19 July 2026, 03:54 pm_

Titans 38–32 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 20 at Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Possession and ball security won the day for the Titans in their 38-32 victory over the Sea Eagles at Cbus Super Stadium. Both teams showed they could score, but the Titans' ability to control possession and finish sets made the difference. The Sea Eagles relied on raw metres and powerful runs, but they couldn't match the Titans' calculated approach.

The Sea Eagles started strong. Tom Trbojevic and Jason Saab crossed the try line within the first five minutes, putting them ahead 10-0. The Titans, however, responded with patience. Dean Ieremia and Oliver Pascoe quickly levelled the score. By the 39th minute, AJ Brimson's try capped off a dominant first half for the Titans, who led 28-14 at the break.

The stats highlight the Titans' disciplined strategy. They held 54% of possession and completed 71% of their sets, compared to the Sea Eagles' 65%. Both teams managed seven line breaks, but the Titans made cleaner use of the ball. The Sea Eagles were more error-prone, with 16 errors to the Titans' 13, which proved costly in a close contest.

In terms of yardage, the Sea Eagles were close, with 1,686 run metres, just 10 short of the Titans. However, the Titans excelled in post-contact metres, gaining 562 compared to the Sea Eagles' 463. This extra effort helped keep the Sea Eagles on the back foot during crucial moments.

Despite missing 34 tackles to the Sea Eagles' 28, the Titans maintained enough defensive structure to withstand pressure. Their discipline in conceding only one penalty, compared to the Sea Eagles' four, allowed them to regain momentum and maintain their lead as the Sea Eagles pushed hard late in the game.

Jojo Fifita exemplified the Titans’ opportunistic play, scoring two tries, including a crucial one in the 69th minute to extend their lead to 38-26. The Sea Eagles added tries from Haumole Olakau'atu, Reuben Garrick, and Tolutau Koula, but it wasn't enough to close the gap.

Alphr's model had favoured the Sea Eagles, predicting a win by 5.2 points based on superior team ratings and recent form. The Titans defied expectations, showing that efficiency can trump flair. The total points were also a surprise, with the game producing 70 points, well above the predicted 44.

In the end, it was a clash of styles: the Titans’ composure against the Sea Eagles’ raw power. The Titans' edge with the ball and post-contact proficiency earned them a well-deserved victory. Less flashy, but more effective.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 28 | 10 | 38 |
| Sea Eagles | 14 | 18 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **71%** | Completion rate | 65% |
| **1,696** | Run metres | 1,686 |
| **562** | Post-contact metres | 463 |
| 7 | Line breaks | 7 |
| 28 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| **14** | Offloads | 12 |
| 85.3% | Effective tackle % | **87.6%** |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **28** |
| **13** | Errors | 16 |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **482** | Kick metres | 457 |

**Model Report Card**

Titans defied the model's 60% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 5.2 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 70 points came in 26 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (0 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 70 points above Adam Gee's career average of 0. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 5' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 8' Try — Dean Ieremia (Titans) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 16' Try — Oliver Pascoe (Titans) — 8-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 22' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 10-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 27' Try — Oliver Pascoe (Titans) — 14-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 33' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 20-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 39' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 26-14 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 53' Try — Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) — 28-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 57' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 32-20 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 62' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 34-24 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 67' Sin Bin — Dean Ieremia (Titans) — 34-24 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 68' Sin Bin — Josh Feledy (Sea Eagles) — 34-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 69' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 38-26 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 79' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 38-30 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.58 (edge -0.4%) — model probability 59.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sea Eagles are the call at 60%, but Titans stay live at 40%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 224 ELO points clear, 1530 to 1306.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 5.2, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Sea Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sea Eagles have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Titans took the most recent meeting 38-32 in 2026 Round 20.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Titans have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Titans 16th against Sea Eagles 9th.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Titans $2.39 and Sea Eagles $1.58, with the line at Titans +4.5 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 4 · Sea Eagles 6 |
| Last meeting | Titans 38-32 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 16th · Sea Eagles 9th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Market | Titans $2.39 · Sea Eagles $1.58 |
| Line | Titans +4.5 · total 46.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 0 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 0W–0L | 50% |
| Sea Eagles | 0W–0L | 50% |

Avg total: 0.0 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Titans 0W–0L (50%) and Sea Eagles 0W–0L (50%). Games average just 0.0 pts, below the norm, suggesting tighter officiating. Small sample (0 games for Titans).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Titans get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Sea Eagles's +0.1. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 21.0pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Conceded | 14.6pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | 5.8pts |
| 1661.4m | Run Metres | 1734.0m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 370.0 | Tackles | 320.6 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | R14 W · R15 L · R16 W · R17 L · R19 L | 21.0 |
| Sea Eagles | R14 W · R16 L · R17 W · R18 L · R19 L | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R12 | Sea Eagles | 12 – 10 | Titans | Sea Eagles 63% ✓ |
| 2025 | R15 | Titans | 28 – 8 | Sea Eagles | not priced |
| 2024 | R20 | Sea Eagles | 38 – 8 | Titans | not priced |
| 2024 | R7 | Titans | 30 – 34 | Sea Eagles | not priced |
| 2023 | R9 | Sea Eagles | 10 – 26 | Titans | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the middle: NRL's 14th-ranked middle attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 5th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Campbell, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1.29 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.56 conceded/game). Key man: Saab, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.31/g (def 7th) | 1.65/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.82/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.38/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 10th) | 1.59/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.63/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.56/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.29/g (att 7th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 12 | 9 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 196m/g | 156m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 84.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 47 | 49 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 760m/g | 752m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.4/g | 13.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.4% | 75.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 12 | 16 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 471m/g | 549m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.1/g | 10.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 90.4% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Props 0.19/g (lg 0.16) +19% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14% · 2nd Rows 0.46/g (lg 0.47) -2%
**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.67/g (lg 0.41) +63% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.27) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Cbus Super Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 5/21g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Dean Ieremia | WG | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 14/32g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' 69' |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/11g | 28/69g | 26% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 11 in 16g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·3·0) | 5/10g | 39/69g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 8 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 17/41g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Zane Harrison | HB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/12g | 2/78g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Oliver Pascoe | HK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 9% | — | 🏉 17' 27' |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 7/41g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Arama Hau | 2R | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/11g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 14/49g | 22% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 13 | Chris Randall | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/37g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Patston | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 2/36g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Bai | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 11% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/10g | 7/6g | 44% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 10 in 16g | 9/10g (0·0·3·0·1·2·0·1·0·2) | 7/10g | 3/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 5' 23' |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 2/3g | 52% | — | 🏉 80' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 6 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 12/11g | 8/6g | 30% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 14 in 16g | 9/10g (1·1·1·1·0·1·2·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.65 AI 70% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Joey Walsh | 5/8 | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 4/18g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Simione Laiafi | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 7 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 4/7g | 3/5g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| 12 | Ethan Bullemor | 2R | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 2/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Josh Feledy | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jackson Shereb | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1306 · Sea Eagles 1530 · ELO difference: 224 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 845 | 1069 | Sea Eagles +224 |
| Backs | 769 | 996 | Sea Eagles +227 |
| Halves | 802 | 1016 | Sea Eagles +214 |
| Hooker | 769 | 1019 | Sea Eagles +250 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Titans |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-19 05:54 UTC (latest tip update)