# Raiders v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 34 – 24 Rabbitohs

_Raiders raid Rabbitohs._

Half time: 28 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 55% / Rabbitohs 45% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sat, 18 July, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Owen Pattie (3' 1st), Hudson Young (9' Tipped ⚡), Kaeo Weekes (20' Tipped ⚡), Noah Martin (24'), Kaeo Weekes (28' Tipped ⚡), Jed Stuart (58') · Rabbitohs: Ashton Ward (14'), Alex Johnston (47' Tipped ⚡), Cameron Murray (50'), Cody Walker (65' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 55% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 July 2026, 06:43 pm · Last updated: 18 July 2026, 04:59 pm_

Raiders 34–24 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 20 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-eight points to six at the break, and on paper that should have been game over. It wasn't quite, but it was close enough.

The Raiders scored four tries inside the first 27 minutes and barely looked at the Rabbitohs' line after that. Owen Pattie got things moving in the second minute, Hudson Young followed in the ninth, and then Kaeo Weekes put two of his own together either side of Noah Martin's try to make it 26-6 by the 27th minute. Ashton Ward's try in between was the only thing the Rabbitohs had to show for a first half the Raiders controlled from the opening whistle.

The second half told a different story, just not a different result. Alex Johnston and Cameron Murray crossed either side of the fiftieth minute to drag it back to 28-16, and when Cody Walker scored in the 65th it was 34-22 and suddenly a ten-point game again. Jed Stuart's try for the Raiders in between kept the margin workable, and in the end that first-half buffer was exactly what saved them.

Look at the stat sheet and you'd think the Rabbitohs should have won it. They had 53% of the ball, six line breaks to four, 601 post-contact metres to 451, and 12 offloads to the Raiders' eight. That's a side that moved the footy and made metres after contact all day. The forward pack and back rating edges coming in, 989 to 900 up front and 1040 to 972 in the backs, showed up exactly where you'd expect: in the collisions.

What won it for the Raiders was the stuff that doesn't show up in the highlights package. They completed at 83% to the Rabbitohs' 76%, coughed up just nine errors to twelve, and kicked for 859 metres against 629. That's control, not chaos, and it's how a team with less ball and less go-forward still put 34 on the board. Discipline mattered too, three penalties conceded to four, small edge but it added up over 80 minutes.

Form lines going in had the Rabbitohs the better side on recent output, averaging 26.8 points a game to the Raiders' 19.2, and coming off a WLWLW finish compared to the Raiders' LLLWW. The model had Canberra as the rating underdog, 1435 to 1517, and still picked them at 55% with a expected margin of three. The final margin landed at ten, well clear of that read but still inside the same footprint, and Alphr's model had them covering the 1.5-point line and landing the 1-12 margin band. Six from seventeen on the finer detail isn't a number to brag about, but the shape of the call held up.

Rabbitohs won plenty of the arm wrestle and still lost by ten. That's what happens when you spot a team 28 points before you've found your rhythm. The comeback was real, it just started too far behind to finish the job.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 28 | 6 | 34 |
| Rabbitohs | 6 | 18 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| **83%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| 1,580 | Run metres | **1,824** |
| 451 | Post-contact metres | **601** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 31 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| 8 | Offloads | **12** |
| 87.7% | Effective tackle % | **89.0%** |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **31** |
| **9** | Errors | 12 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **859** | Kick metres | 629 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 55% probability. The predicted margin of 3.0 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The model went 6/17 on this match. Raiders covered the 1.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (53 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 9 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 49. Raiders's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Raiders have a 100% win rate under this referee. Raiders's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Owen Pattie (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 9' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 14' Try — Ashton Ward (Rabbitohs) — 10-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 19' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 24' Try — Noah Martin (Raiders) — 20-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 27' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 46' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 28-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 49' Try — Cameron Murray (Rabbitohs) — 28-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 57' Try — Jed Stuart (Raiders) — 32-18 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 65' Try — Cody Walker (Rabbitohs) — 34-22 · win-prob swing -8 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.82 (edge +2.0%) — model probability 54.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 3 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 55%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 45%. The ratings say otherwise: Rabbitohs sit 82 ELO points clear, 1517 to 1435, so the model is backing Raiders against the ratings gap. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Raiders.

On paper Rabbitohs shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Raiders, which says Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Raiders by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Raiders have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 34-24 in 2026 Round 20.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Raiders 3, Rabbitohs 3.

On the ladder it's Raiders 12th against Rabbitohs 6th.

The market has Raiders favourites, Raiders $1.82 and Rabbitohs $2.02, with the line at Raiders -1.5 and the total at 48.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 13.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game, home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 8 · Rabbitohs 2 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 34-24 |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders at home | 5-7 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 12th · Rabbitohs 6th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 0% · Rabbitohs 100% |
| Market | Raiders $1.82 · Rabbitohs $2.02 |
| Line | Raiders -1.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 13.0 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Wyatt Raymond** — 53 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 5W–0L | 100% |
| Rabbitohs | 3W–3L | 50% |

Avg total: 49.5 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Raiders have won 5 of 5 games (100%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 3 from 6 (50%). Games average 49.5 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.2pts | Avg Score | 26.8pts |
| 23.0pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -3.8pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 1619.0m | Run Metres | 1685.0m |
| 2.2 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 338.8 | Tackles | 316.6 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | R14 L · R15 L · R16 L · R17 W · R19 W | 19.2 |
| Rabbitohs | R14 L · R15 W · R17 W · R18 L · R19 W | 26.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Rabbitohs | 34 – 36 | Raiders | Raiders 53% ✓ |
| 2025 | R14 | Raiders | 36 – 12 | Rabbitohs | not priced |
| 2024 | R21 | Raiders | 32 – 12 | Rabbitohs | not priced |
| 2023 | R13 | Rabbitohs | 26 – 33 | Raiders | not priced |
| 2022 | R11 | Rabbitohs | 12 – 32 | Raiders | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 13th-ranked middle attack (1.35 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 7th there (1.56 conceded/game). Key man: Weekes, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 13th there (1.41 conceded/game). Key man: Graham, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.94/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 6th (strong)) | 2.06/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.35/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.82/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.31/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.56/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.18/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.41/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.75/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 16 | 7 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 181m/g | 156m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.6/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 82.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 34 · 44 | 54 · 38 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 749m/g | 718m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.7/g | 16.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.3% | 77.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 13 | 16 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 530m/g | 595m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 9.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 89.7% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.44/g (lg 0.27) +63% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.13) +54% · Fullbacks 0.53/g (lg 0.41) +29%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Centres 0.93/g (lg 0.72) +29% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.13) +15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 8 in 17g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 15/33g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 20% ✓ Scored | 🏉 20' 28' |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/16g | 15% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 5/24g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 19/57g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1) | 2/3g | 22/36g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 12/29g | 38% | — | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/9g | 9% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | INT | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 6/54g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | HK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/18g | 7% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 10/103g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 26/69g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| 12 | Noah Martin | 2R | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 23% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 13 | Zac Hosking | LK | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 1/4g | 8/24g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Starling | INT | 2 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 8/66g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Ata Mariota | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/41g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/17g | 30/135g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | FB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 2/2g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 15% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 19 in 13g | 15/10g (1·1·1·2·2·3·1·0·4·0) | 11/14g | 5/7g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 25% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| 3 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 8 in 16g | 7/10g (3·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 28/107g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 7 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 2/5g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 7/13g | 3/7g | 24% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| 7 | Ashton Ward | HB | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 3/6g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/14g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 18% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 14 | Jye Gray | RES | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Le Blanc | RES | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jamie Humphreys | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Rabbitohs hold the ELO advantage (1517 vs 1435), but the market favours Raiders (@1.82). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1435 · Rabbitohs 1517 · ELO difference: 82 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 900 | 989 | Rabbitohs +90 |
| Backs | 972 | 1040 | Rabbitohs +69 |
| Halves | 963 | 1020 | Rabbitohs +57 |
| Hooker | 941 | 993 | Rabbitohs +53 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Raiders predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-18 06:59 UTC (latest tip update)