# Dolphins v Cowboys — NRL Round 20 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 36 – 16 Cowboys

_Dolphins outswim Cowboys._

Half time: 12 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 57% / Cowboys 43% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 19 July, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Jamayne Isaako (31' Tipped ⚡), Felise Kaufusi (37'), Jamayne Isaako (44' Tipped ⚡), Tom Gilbert (47'), Max Plath (76'), Connelly Lemuelu (78') · Cowboys: Tom Dearden (5' 1st), Jeremiah Nanai (13'), Scott Drinkwater (70' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 57% | Won |
| Cowboys | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.0 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 20 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 July 2026, 06:43 pm · Last updated: 19 July 2026, 06:02 pm_

Dolphins 36–16 Cowboys in NRL Round 20 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dolphins beat the Cowboys 36-16 at Suncorp Stadium, and on the full-time margin it reads like a hiding. It wasn't, not for most of the night. At half-time it was 12-10, Dolphins by two, and Tom Dearden had the Cowboys in front inside four minutes. The 20-point gap all arrived in the back half of the match.

The Cowboys actually led twice early. Dearden opened the scoring in the 4th, Jeremiah Nanai stretched it to 0-10 by the 13th, and for a stretch there Suncorp had a genuine upset on its mind. Then Jamayne Isaako crossed in the 30th to get Dolphins on the board, Felise Kaufusi levelled it at 10-10 in the 36th, and Isaako's second just after the break put Dolphins in front for good at 16-10. From there Tom Gilbert, Max Plath and Connelly Lemuelu all crossed late, the last two in the final quarter, and what was a two-score arm wrestle turned into a laugher by full time.

The number that explains it best isn't on the scoreboard at all. Missed tackles: Dolphins 23, Cowboys 55. More than double. You can score three tries on the back of an early kick chase and a bit of luck, but you can't keep missing that many and expect to stay in it, and the Cowboys didn't. Dolphins backed that up with 55 tackle breaks to 23 and 10 line breaks to 2, so it wasn't just the Cowboys folding, it was Dolphins running through the gaps their own defence kept handing over.

Field position told the same story from the other direction. Dolphins had 56% of the ball, completed at 82% against the Cowboys' 76%, and made 13 fewer errors across the match, 10 to 13. Add 621 post-contact metres and 11 offloads to keep the ball alive in traffic, and it's a side that was harder to stop and better at holding onto the footy once it got moving.

None of this should have been a shock on paper. Dolphins came in rated stronger in every positional battle, forwards, backs, halves and hooker, and their form line backed it up too, three wins from five against two for the Cowboys, and a healthier average margin heading in. The Cowboys' form arc actually bent the other way, three straight losses before two wins, which is a side building something rather than one already there.

Alphr's model backed Dolphins at 57% and had them winning by 6 on a combined total of 42. It got the winner right and covered the 3.5-point line, but the margin read was well off, out by 14 points on a night that finished with a bonus-point gap. Fair to say the model saw a contest. What actually played out was a tight first half that cracked wide open once the Cowboys' tackle count kept climbing and Dolphins kept finding the same soft edges again and again.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 12 | 24 | 36 |
| Cowboys | 10 | 6 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **1,868** | Run metres | 1,521 |
| **621** | Post-contact metres | 498 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **55** | Tackle breaks | 23 |
| **11** | Offloads | 3 |
| **92.5%** | Effective tackle % | 83.4% |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 55 |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **554** | Kick metres | 521 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.0 but the actual margin was 20 points. Dolphins led 12–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 4/17 on this match. Dolphins covered the 3.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (326 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 9 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Dolphins's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Dolphins have a 50% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Tom Dearden (Cowboys) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 13' Try — Jeremiah Nanai (Cowboys) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 30' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 36' Try — Felise Kaufusi (Dolphins) — 10-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 43' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 47' Try — Tom Gilbert (Dolphins) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 69' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 24-14 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 76' Try — Max Plath (Dolphins) — 28-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 78' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 34-16 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.62 (edge -1.8%) — model probability 56.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 6 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 57%, but Cowboys stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 41 ELO points clear, 1556 to 1515. Form leans Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Cowboys.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Dolphins by 6.0, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 6 of the last 8 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 36-16 in 2026 Round 20.

Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Dolphins 5, Cowboys 3.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 7th against Cowboys 8th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dolphins $1.62 and Cowboys $2.30, with the line at Dolphins -3.5 and the total at 50.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 17.8 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Dolphins 6 · Cowboys 2 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 36-16 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-5 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWLL · 100 for, 118 against |
| Cowboys away | 6-7 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 7th · Cowboys 8th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Dolphins $1.62 · Cowboys $2.30 |
| Line | Dolphins -3.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 17.8 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Grant Atkins** — 326 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 6W–6L | 50% |
| Cowboys | 15W–19L | 44% |

Avg total: 43.3 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Dolphins hold a 6-point edge: 6W–6L (50%) vs Cowboys's 15W–19L (44%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Cowboys get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dolphins's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.4pts | Avg Score | 18.2pts |
| 27.0pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| -2.6pts | Avg Margin | -8.6pts |
| 1721.4m | Run Metres | 1620.8m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 379.4 | Tackles | 342.8 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 L · R19 L | 24.4 |
| Cowboys | R13 L · R14 L · R16 L · R17 W · R19 W | 18.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R14 | Cowboys | 14 – 40 | Dolphins | Dolphins 58% ✓ |
| 2025 | R20 | Dolphins | 43 – 24 | Cowboys | not priced |
| 2025 | R15 | Cowboys | 4 – 58 | Dolphins | not priced |
| 2024 | R9 | Cowboys | 26 – 28 | Dolphins | not priced |
| 2024 | R1 | Dolphins | 18 – 43 | Cowboys | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.41 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 15th there (1.76 conceded/game). Key man: Cobbo, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.53 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 7th there (1.35 conceded/game). Key man: Taulagi, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.41/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.35/g (def 7th) | 1.53/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.76/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.47/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.41/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.47/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.59/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.53/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 9th) | 1.29/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.18/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 12 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 189m/g | 205m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 5.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.4% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 56 · 43 | 46 · 50 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 869m/g | 764m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.9/g | 16.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.9% | 77.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 13 | 14 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 486m/g | 522m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 8.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.2% | 89.4% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.28/g (lg 0.16) +75% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.27) +37% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.13) +23%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.21) +24% · Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 8 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/5g | 28/36g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 15 in 17g | 10/10g (1·3·0·1·1·0·1·2·1·0) | 13/16g | 39/82g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 68% ✓ Scored | 🏉 31' 44' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 8 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 28/69g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | CE | 10 in 12g | 10/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·2·1·2·2) | 4/7g | 34/55g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 83% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 4/21g | 25/88g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Bradley Schneider | HB | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 4/62g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 5/34g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/23g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 3 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 8/35g | 24% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 1/22g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Max Plath | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/18g | 16% | — | 🏉 76' |
| 16 | Tom Gilbert | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/23g | 6% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 17 | Felise Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 2/45g | 6% | — | 🏉 37' |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 8 in 17g | 5/10g (1·2·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 8/15g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 40% ✓ Scored | 🏉 70' |
| 2 | Braidon Burns | WG | 12 in 13g | 11/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·2·2·0·2) | 1/3g | 4/8g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 82% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Zac Laybutt | CE | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 5/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Tom Chester | CE | 7 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 1/2g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 11 in 12g | 9/10g (2·1·1·0·3·0·1·0·1·0) | 6/5g | 8/15g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jaxon Purdue | 5/8 | 6 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/5g | 36% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Clifford | RES | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/9g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Griffin Neame | PR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/15g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/23g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Heilum Luki | 2R | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/9g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 3/3g | 8/9g | 38% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 2/14g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Soni Luke | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Matthew Lodge | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/41g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/16g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1556 · Cowboys 1515 · ELO difference: 41 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1058 | 1053 | Dolphins +5 |
| Backs | 1064 | 1031 | Dolphins +33 |
| Halves | 1026 | 983 | Dolphins +43 |
| Hooker | 1076 | 1034 | Dolphins +42 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-19 08:02 UTC (latest tip update)