Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.3 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 60 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 17 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
62%
Cowboys
38%
AI Match Overview
Wests Tigers hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 38%. Cowboys are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Wests Tigers counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 5.3 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.54
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.3%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wests Tigers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | R2025-R22W R2025-R24W R2025-R25L R2025-R26L R2025-R27L older → newer | 24.0 |
Cowboys | R2025-R23L R2025-R24W R2025-R25W R2025-R26L R2026-R1L | 27.6 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Wests Tigers
23.4
Cowboys
Avg Margin
0.0
Wests Tigers
4.2
Cowboys
Run Metres
1527
Wests Tigers
1786
Cowboys
Line Breaks
4.0
Wests Tigers
3.4
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
BalancedGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Wests Tigers 12W–17L (41%) and Cowboys 14W–18L (44%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Cowboys get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Wests Tigers's -0.8.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Cowboys hold the ELO advantage (1408 vs 1399), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.54).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +5.3
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