Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
62%
Cowboys
38%
AI Match Overview
Wests Tigers hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 38%. Cowboys are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Wests Tigers counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. The margin model predicts Wests Tigers by 5.3 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Wests Tigers to Win @1.54
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.3%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers -4.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Wests Tigers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | WWLLL | 18.8 |
Cowboys | WWLLL | 26.4 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Wests Tigers
24.2
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-5.2
Wests Tigers
2.2
Cowboys
Run Metres
1538
Wests Tigers
1685
Cowboys
Line Breaks
3.6
Wests Tigers
3.2
Cowboys
Each team's win rate when Grant Atkins refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Grant Atkins officiates — Wests Tigers 11W–16L (41%) and Cowboys 14W–17L (45%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 42.9 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
42.9 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
ELO–Market Disagreement
Cowboys hold the ELO advantage (1408 vs 1399), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.54).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Wests Tigers predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +5.3
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