# Wests Tigers v Cowboys — NRL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 44 – 16 Cowboys

_Wests Tigers pounce on Cowboys._

Half time: 28 – 2 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 62% / Cowboys 38% · Leichhardt Oval, Sydney · Sat, 14 Mar, 03:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Samuela Fainu (11' 1st), Adam Doueihi (17'), Kai Pearce-Paul (26'), Kai Pearce-Paul (35'), Luke Laulilii (39'), Jarome Luai (52'), Luke Laulilii (64'), Jeral Skelton (71') · Cowboys: Braidon Burns (46'), Jaxon Purdue (56'), Tom Chester (60')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 62% | Won |
| Cowboys | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.3 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Mar 2026, 09:57 am · Last updated: 14 Mar 2026, 05:37 pm_

Wests Tigers 44–16 Cowboys in NRL Round 2 at Leichhardt Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten minutes in, Kai O'Donnell was sent to the sin bin, and by the time he sat down Wests Tigers already had the ball over the line through Samuela Fainu. That's the passage that decided this one. A one-man disadvantage turned into an avalanche, and Cowboys never got out from under it.

By half-time it was 28-2. Fainu's opener was followed by Adam Doueihi, a double from Kai Pearce-Paul and Luke Laulilii getting his first, and Cowboys had nothing to answer with beyond a single penalty goal. Wests Tigers scored five tries in that opening period alone. Cowboys managed one converted try to Braidon Burns right on the resumption, but the deficit was already too big to be anything other than pride.

The final scoreline read 44-16, and the second half was mostly Cowboys treading water while Wests Tigers kept the foot down. Jarome Luai, Jaxon Purdue, Tom Chester, another Laulilii four-pointer and Jeral Skelton all crossed after the break, but the shape of the game was set in that first forty.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Wests Tigers ran 1,958 metres to 1,523, and it was the extra work after contact, 693 post-contact metres against 495, that did the damage. Eight line breaks to four, 46 tackle busts to 32, 21 offloads to 9: that's not a team scraping across for four points here and there, that's a side running through arm tackles all night. Cowboys missed 46 tackles to Wests Tigers' 32, and against a team that kept the ball alive like that, those misses turned into points.

Wests Tigers also controlled the ball, 57% possession, and were the tidier side with it, completing at 76% to 67%. Add in 410 kick metres to 289 and they had Cowboys pinned in their own end for long stretches. Cowboys gave away six penalties to three, which never helps when you're already chasing field position.

On paper this was supposed to be closer. Cowboys came in rated stronger in the forwards, 902 to 884, and stronger again in the halves, 909 to 882, and Alphr's model had Wests Tigers as the tighter favourite by 5.3 points on a combined total of 44. The 62% win probability landed fine. The margin did not: Wests Tigers won by 28, not five, and the total ran 16 points hot at 60. Two from four on this one, and a reminder that a forward-pack edge on the stat sheet counts for nothing if the other side spends the first quarter with fourteen men.

Cowboys had shown some form coming in, level with Wests Tigers on wins across the last five, and actually ahead on running metres per game, 1,785.6 to 1,527.2. None of that showed up here. Once the sin bin flipped the contest, Wests Tigers' completion rate and go-forward did the rest, and Cowboys spent the night chasing a game that had already gotten away from them by half-time.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 28 | 16 | 44 |
| Cowboys | 2 | 14 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| **57%** | Possession | 43% |
| **76%** | Completion rate | 67% |
| **1,958** | Run metres | 1,523 |
| **693** | Post-contact metres | 495 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **46** | Tackle breaks | 32 |
| **21** | Offloads | 9 |
| **84.7%** | Effective tackle % | 82.9% |
| **32** | Missed tackles | 46 |
| 13 | Errors | 13 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **410** | Kick metres | 289 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.3 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 60 points came in 16 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 2/4 on this match. Wests Tigers covered the 4.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 17 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Sin Bin — Kai O'Donnell (Cowboys) — 0-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 10' Try — Samuela Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 16' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 10-2 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 25' Try — Kai Pearce-Paul (Wests Tigers) — 16-2 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 34' Try — Kai Pearce-Paul (Wests Tigers) — 20-2 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 38' Try — Luke Laulilii (Wests Tigers) — 26-2 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 45' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 28-6 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 51' Try — Jarome Luai (Wests Tigers) — 32-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 55' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 34-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 59' Try — Tom Chester (Cowboys) — 34-14 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 63' Try — Luke Laulilii (Wests Tigers) — 38-16 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 70' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 44-16 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.54 (edge -0.3%) — model probability 61.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wests Tigers are the call at 62%, but Cowboys stay live at 38%.

On paper Cowboys shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Wests Tigers, which says Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 5.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Wests Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Cowboys have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 24-10 in 2026 Round 26.

Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 9th against Cowboys 13th.

The market has Wests Tigers favourites, Wests Tigers $1.54 and Cowboys $2.49, with the line at Wests Tigers -4.5.

Wests Tigers come in fresher, 188 days between games against 13.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 2 · Cowboys 8 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 24-10 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWLL · 100 for, 118 against |
| Cowboys away | 6-7 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 9th · Cowboys 13th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Cowboys 100% |
| Market | Wests Tigers $1.54 · Cowboys $2.49 |
| Line | Wests Tigers -4.5 |
| Rest gap | Wests Tigers 188d · Cowboys 13d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 12W–19L | 39% |
| Cowboys | 16W–21L | 43% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Wests Tigers 12W–19L (39%) and Cowboys 16W–21L (43%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Cowboys get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Wests Tigers's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 27.6pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 23.4pts |
| 0.0pts | Avg Margin | 4.2pts |
| 1527.2m | Run Metres | 1785.6m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 3.4 |
| 322.6 | Tackles | 329.2 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | R22 W · R24 W · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L | 24.0 |
| Cowboys | R23 L · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R1 L | 27.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Cowboys | 24 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R25 | Wests Tigers | 28 – 34 | Cowboys |
| 2025 | R13 | Cowboys | 32 – 28 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R22 | Wests Tigers | 30 – 48 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R12 | Cowboys | 42 – 28 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 11th-ranked left edge attack (1.13 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 16th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Fainu, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 13th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Purdue, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.13/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.08/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.04/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.21/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.96/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 18 | 17 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 229m/g | 225m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.9/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.8% | 86.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 55 · 58 | 63 · 68 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 668m/g | 750m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.8/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.4/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.3% | 75.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 21 | 12 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 509m/g | 463m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.1/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.8% | 88.8% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.16) +56% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.27) +26% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.22) +23%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Fullbacks 0.55/g (lg 0.42) +31% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leichhardt Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | no games | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 6/6g | 7/7g | 42% | — | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 3 | Taylan May | CE | no games | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 3/3g | 3/2g | 40% | — | — |
| 4 | Heamasi Makasini | CE | no games | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 5 | Luke Laulilii | WG | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | 🏉 39' 64' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 1/3g | 12% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/9g | 4/14g | 26% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/15g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 4/7g | 18% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 26' 35' |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/22g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Jock Madden | RES | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Sione Fainu | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 11% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 16 | Royce Hunt | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/14g | 16% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 3/5g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Braidon Burns | WG | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 42% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 41% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 4 | Tom Chester | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 2 in 1g | 9/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·2·2) | 10/8g | 5/4g | 54% | — | — |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 6/9g | 2/3g | 34% | — | — |
| 8 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 1/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Heilum Luki | 2R | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Sam McIntyre | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Soni Luke | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Kai O'Donnell | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Matthew Lodge | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Cowboys hold the ELO advantage (1408 vs 1399), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.54). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1399 · Cowboys 1408 · ELO difference: 9 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 884 | 902 | Cowboys +18 |
| Backs | 871 | 872 | Cowboys +1 |
| Halves | 882 | 909 | Cowboys +28 |
| Hooker | 903 | 903 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Cowboys |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-14 06:37 UTC (latest tip update)