NRL | Round 2

alphr.com.au

NZL
Warriors
VS
CAN
Raiders
GO MEDIA STADIUM, AUCKLAND • FRIDAY 13 MAR, 6:00 PM

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

57%WarriorsFavourite

Warriors

57%

Raiders

43%

✨

AI Match Overview

Warriors hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Raiders are far from out of this at 43%. Raiders are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Warriors counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Raiders carry a 42-point ELO rating advantage (1547 vs 1505).

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warriors to Win @1.81

Winner ✓

Edge

+3.9%

✓

Line / Spread

Raiders +1.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Warriors 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 46.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Warriors
WWLLL
20.4
Raiders
WWLLL
21.6

Avg Conceded

21.0

Warriors

29.8

Raiders

Avg Margin

-0.6

Warriors

-8.2

Raiders

Run Metres

1743

Warriors

1596

Raiders

Line Breaks

4.4

Warriors

4.2

Raiders

Referee IndicatorAI
Balanced record
Peter Gough176 games since 2016

Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

NZL
50%11W 11L
CAN
50%8W 8L

Both sides have a similar record when Peter Gough officiates — Warriors 11W–11L (50%) and Raiders 8W–8L (50%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 44.2 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

44.2 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Raiders lead 3-2
May 2025NZL 10 - 16 CAN
Mar 2025NZL 8 - 30 CAN
Jul 2024NZL 18 - 20 CAN
Mar 2024NZL 18 - 10 CAN
Aug 2023NZL 21 - 20 CAN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model
⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1547 vs 1505), but the market favours Warriors (@1.81).

The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

NZL
1505Overall1547
CAN
ELO difference: -42 in favour of Raiders

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1013Forwards1074
CAN +60
1034Backs1033
Even
976Halves1037
CAN +61
1042Hooker1014
NZL +28

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NZL
Stat
CAN
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
20.4pts
Avg Score
21.6pts
21.0pts
Avg Conceded
29.8pts
-0.6pts
Avg Margin
-8.2pts
1743.4m
Run Metres
1596.2m
4.4
Line Breaks
4.2
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Raiders
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Raiders
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Raiders
4
Halves Control9.0%
Raiders
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
—
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Warriors
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Warriors

Model Confidence

57%

Warriors predicted to win by 0 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +0.2

2/4 match predictions correct
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