# Warriors v Raiders — NRL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 40 – 6 Raiders

_Warriors run riot over Raiders._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 57% / Raiders 43% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Fri, 13 Mar, 06:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (14'), Ali Leiataua (42'), Leka Halasima (48'), Jackson Ford (63'), Leka Halasima (68'), Tanah Boyd (74'), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (78') · Raiders: Kaeo Weekes (5' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 57% | Won |
| Raiders | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.2 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Mar 2026, 09:57 am · Last updated: 13 Mar 2026, 09:49 pm_

Warriors 40–6 Raiders in NRL Round 2 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warriors wanted the ball in hand and the errors off the sheet. Raiders wanted to throw it round and hope the line breaks added up to something. Only one of those plans survives a full 80 minutes, and the 40-6 scoreline at Go Media Stadium tells you which.

It didn't look that way early. Kaeo Weekes crossed inside four minutes to put the Raiders up 4-0, and when Dallin Watene-Zelezniak hit back seven minutes later the sides went to the break locked at 6-6. Raiders were doing exactly what a team with 13 offloads to 2 sets out to do: keep the ball alive, ask questions, back the ambition over the structure. It worked for 40 minutes.

Then it stopped working. Ali Leiataua crossed a minute after the resumption to break the deadlock, and from there the Warriors simply didn't stop scoring. Leka Halasima went over twice, Jackson Ford and Tanah Boyd added one each, Watene-Zelezniak grabbed his second, and by full time the Raiders' four line breaks and 13 offloads had produced one try to the Warriors' seven.

The stat sheet explains why patience beat ambition. Warriors held 55% of possession and completed at 86% to the Raiders' 78%, which in practice means more sets, more chances, fewer gifted turnovers. Nine errors to twelve doesn't sound like a chasm, but stacked across 80 minutes it's the difference between building pressure and handing it back. Warriors also ran for 1,809 metres to 1,553 and banked 644 post-contact metres, grinding rather than sparkling, and broke 41 tackles to the Raiders' 29. That's a forward pack asserting itself physically, which lines up with the raw metres even though the Raiders actually rated stronger up front pre-match at 1074 to 1013.

Where the Warriors really won it was on both sides of the ball. Their kicking game, 840 metres to 533, kept field position one-sided all night, and their defence held up when it mattered, missing 29 tackles against the Raiders' 41 at an effective rate of 87.2%. The Raiders' 90.0% effective tackle rate reads well in isolation, but 41 missed tackles is a lot of doors left open for a team that came in defending at 350.4 tackles a game across their last five, more volume than the Warriors' 332.2. Volume without connection just means more work for nothing.

Form lines said this one was close to a coin flip. Both sides arrived 2-2 in their last five with identical WLLLW runs, and Alphr's ratings had Raiders narrowly on top, 1547 to 1505, with an expected margin of just 0.2 points either way. The model still leaned Warriors at 57% to win, and that call landed. The margin read didn't: a combined total of 44 was within two of the actual 46, but nobody had a 34-point gap in mind at kick-off. Two from four on the night, with the under on 46.5 the pick that actually cashed.

Raiders leave with the shape of a team that can still open you up, four line breaks and that early try prove as much, but a defence conceding 41 missed tackles was never going to hold a side content to grind out 644 post-contact metres and let the scoreboard do the arguing.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 6 | 34 | 40 |
| Raiders | 6 | 0 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **1,809** | Run metres | 1,553 |
| **644** | Post-contact metres | 514 |
| 3 | Line breaks | **4** |
| **41** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| 2 | Offloads | **13** |
| 87.2% | Effective tackle % | **90.0%** |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 41 |
| **9** | Errors | 12 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **840** | Kick metres | 533 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.2 but the actual margin was 34 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 46, within 2 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 13' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 41' Try — Ali Leiataua (Warriors) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 48' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 62' Try — Jackson Ford (Warriors) — 22-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 67' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 28-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 74' Try — Tanah Boyd (Warriors) — 34-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 77' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 38-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.81 (edge +3.9%) — model probability 56.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 0 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 57%, but Raiders stay live at 43%. The ratings say otherwise: Raiders sit 42 ELO points clear, 1547 to 1505, so the model is backing Warriors against the ratings gap.

On paper Raiders shade it, ahead on 3 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The model still sides with Warriors, which says Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 4th against Raiders 7th.

The market has Warriors favourites, Warriors $1.81 and Raiders $2.04, with the line at Warriors -1.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 5 · Raiders 5 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 40-6 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-4 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 4th · Raiders 7th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Raiders 0% |
| Market | Warriors $1.81 · Raiders $2.04 |
| Line | Warriors -1.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 12W–11L | 52% |
| Raiders | 9W–9L | 50% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Peter Gough, Warriors 12W–11L (52%) and Raiders 9W–9L (50%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Raiders get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Warriors's +0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 23.4pts |
| 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 32.2pts |
| 3.4pts | Avg Margin | -8.8pts |
| 1717.8m | Run Metres | 1528.0m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 332.2 | Tackles | 350.4 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R25 W · R26 L · R27 L · FW1 L · R1 W | 26.0 |
| Raiders | R26 W · R27 L · FW1 L · SF L · R1 W | 23.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R12 | Warriors | 10 – 16 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R1 | Raiders | 30 – 8 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R20 | Raiders | 20 – 18 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R3 | Warriors | 18 – 10 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R21 | Warriors | 21 – 20 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.16 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (1.77 conceded/game). Key man: Tuivasa-Sheck, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 15th there (1.52 conceded/game). Key man: Savage, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.16/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.52/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.42/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.77/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.48/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.16/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.12/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.04/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 11 | 20 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 162m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.8% | 86.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 45 · 60 | 57 · 65 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 683m/g | 662m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.4/g | 17.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.6% | 76.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 33 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 528m/g | 597m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 10.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Centres 0.87/g (lg 0.71) +23% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.71) -3% · Fullbacks 0.4/g (lg 0.42) -5% · Wingers 1.16/g (lg 1.27) -9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/4g | 7/29g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 9/18g | 20/35g | 38% | — | 🏉 14' 78' |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/7g | 26% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 9/34g | 36% | — | — |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 8/18g | 15/57g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 2 in 1g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/8g | 14/28g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 2/10g | 10% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/13g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 2/34g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/29g | 12% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 4/19g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/14g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 17% | — | — |
| 15 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/15g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 8/14g | 48% | — | 🏉 48' 68' |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (3·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 38% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/9g | 0/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 2 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·2) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 48% | — | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (1·0·1·0·0·3·1·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 1 in 1g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Morgan Smithies | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/10g | 1/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 12 | Noah Martin | 2R | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Zac Hosking | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Matthew Timoko | INT | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1547 vs 1505), but the market favours Warriors (@1.81). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1505 · Raiders 1547 · ELO difference: 42 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1013 | 1074 | Raiders +60 |
| Backs | 1034 | 1033 | Warriors +1 |
| Halves | 976 | 1037 | Raiders +61 |
| Hooker | 1042 | 1014 | Warriors +28 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Warriors favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-13 10:49 UTC (latest tip update)