Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.2 but the actual margin was 34 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 46, within 2 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
57%
Raiders
43%
AI Match Overview
Warriors hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Raiders are far from out of this at 43%. Raiders are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Warriors counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Raiders carry a 42-point ELO rating advantage (1547 vs 1505).
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Warriors to Win @1.81
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.9%
Line / Spread
Raiders +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Warriors 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | R2025-R25W R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2025-R28L R2026-R1W older → newer | 26.0 |
Raiders | R2025-R26W R2025-R27L R2025-R28L R2025-R29L R2026-R1W | 23.4 |
Avg Conceded
22.6
Warriors
32.2
Raiders
Avg Margin
3.4
Warriors
-8.8
Raiders
Run Metres
1718
Warriors
1528
Raiders
Line Breaks
5.2
Warriors
4.4
Raiders
Referee Indicator
BalancedPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Peter Gough, Warriors 12W–11L (52%) and Raiders 9W–9L (50%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Raiders get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Warriors's +0.1.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1547 vs 1505), but the market favours Warriors (@1.81).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Warriors predicted to win by 0 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +0.2
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.