Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
61%
Knights
39%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 74-point ELO rating advantage (1469 vs 1395). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Knights. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 6.3 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.57
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.5%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Sea Eagles 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | WWWLL | 29.8 |
Knights | WLLLL | 13.6 |
Avg Conceded
26.8
Sea Eagles
42.0
Knights
Avg Margin
3.0
Sea Eagles
-28.4
Knights
Run Metres
1765
Sea Eagles
1349
Knights
Line Breaks
5.8
Sea Eagles
4.0
Knights
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Todd Smith officiates, Sea Eagles have won 7 of 11 games (64%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Knights's 0 from 6 (0%). That's a 64‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.9 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Sea Eagles an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 6 games for Knights — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
45.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +6.3
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.