Win Probability
AI Game Review
Knights defied the model's 61% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.3 but the actual margin was 20 points. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 6 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Knights bucked the trend, Sea Eagles historically win 58% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
61%
Knights
39%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Knights are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 74-point ELO rating advantage (1469 vs 1395). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Knights. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 6.3 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.57
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.5%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Sea Eagles 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 47.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | R2025-R24L R2025-R25W R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2026-R1L older → newer | 33.0 |
Knights | R2025-R24L R2025-R25L R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2026-R1W | 14.0 |
Avg Conceded
27.0
Sea Eagles
41.6
Knights
Avg Margin
6.0
Sea Eagles
-27.6
Knights
Run Metres
1741
Sea Eagles
1428
Knights
Line Breaks
6.0
Sea Eagles
4.0
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours Sea EaglesTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Sea Eagles have won 7 of 12 games (58%), significantly stronger than Knights's 2 from 8 (25%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Sea Eagles get a +1.5 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Knights's +1.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +6.3
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