# Sea Eagles v Knights — NRL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 16 – 36 Knights

_Knights lay siege to Sea Eagles._

Half time: 10 – 30 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 61% / Knights 39% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sun, 15 Mar, 04:05 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Jamal Fogarty (15'), Tom Trbojevic (20'), Haumole Olakau'atu (43') · Knights: Greg Marzhew (1' 1st), Dominic Young (12'), Kalyn Ponga (25'), Fletcher Hunt (36'), Tyson Frizell (38'), Dominic Young (46')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 61% | Lost |
| Knights | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.3 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sea Eagles vs Knights Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 2, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Mar 2026, 09:57 am · Last updated: 16 Mar 2026, 09:22 am_

Sea Eagles 16–36 Knights in NRL Round 2 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Newcastle led inside a minute and never really let go. Greg Marzhew crossed in the first, and by the 11th minute Dominic Young had made it 10-0. The Sea Eagles spent the rest of the night playing catch-up on a scoreboard that kept moving away from them, and it finished Knights 36, Sea Eagles 16 at Brookvale Oval.

There was a stretch where it looked like Manly might wrestle it back. Jamal Fogarty scored in the 14th to get within two, and six minutes later Tom Trbojevic had them up 10-12. That was as close as it got. Kalyn Ponga answered straight back in the 25th, then Fletcher Hunt and Tyson Frizell either side of the 35th and 38th minute marks turned a manageable gap into a rout, 10-28 before the home side could draw breath. Haumole Olakau'atu got one back just after the break, but Young's second try in the 46th put it at 16-34 and the contest was effectively done. Newcastle led 30-10 at half-time and simply defended that buffer from there.

The gap on the scoreboard matched the gap in the stat sheet. Newcastle ran 1,807 metres to 1,406, and post-contact they found another 502 to Manly's 433. That extra go-forward showed up everywhere else: 42 tackle breaks to 19, 13 offloads to 8, five line breaks to four. Manly simply couldn't get the ball to move once the Knights forwards had it.

Defensively it was one-way traffic too. The Sea Eagles missed 42 tackles at an effective rate of 84.4%, while Newcastle held their line at 89.1% and missed only 19. Add in 15 errors for Manly against 10 for the Knights, and five penalties conceded to three, and it's a fairly clean explanation for a 20-point margin: the side with the ball looked after it, and the side without it couldn't shut anything down.

None of this fits the ledger coming in. Manly's positional ratings had them ahead everywhere, forwards, backs, halves and hooker, and their recent form read three wins from five at an average margin of plus-6. Newcastle arrived on one win in five, conceding an average of 41.6 points a game. On paper this was Manly's game to lose. On the day, Newcastle simply played like the better side, out-completing them 82% to 71% and winning the collision battle that their own form line said they shouldn't have.

Alphr's model had Manly favourites at 61%, expecting them to win by 6.3 points on a combined total near 43. Instead the Knights won by 20, and every one of the model's four picks on this one missed. Fair to call it an upset, and a heavy one at that, the sort of result that doesn't care what the ratings said in the week before kickoff.

Wins and misses, all of it. This was a miss, and a clear one. Manly will look at the tackle count and wonder how a top-rated defence bled 36 points, while Newcastle will simply enjoy having their forward pack turn up when it mattered most.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 10 | 6 | 16 |
| Knights | 30 | 6 | 36 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 44% | Possession | **56%** |
| 71% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| 1,406 | Run metres | **1,807** |
| 433 | Post-contact metres | **502** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 19 | Tackle breaks | **42** |
| 8 | Offloads | **13** |
| 84.4% | Effective tackle % | **89.1%** |
| 42 | Missed tackles | **19** |
| 15 | Errors | **10** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 547 | Kick metres | **579** |

**Model Report Card**

Knights defied the model's 61% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.3 but the actual margin was 20 points. A tough result for the model, all 4 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 5 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47. Knights bucked the trend, Sea Eagles historically win 54% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 11' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 14' Try — Jamal Fogarty (Sea Eagles) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 20' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 25' Try — Kalyn Ponga (Knights) — 10-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 35' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 10-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 38' Try — Tyson Frizell (Knights) — 10-28 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 43' Try — Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) — 14-30 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 46' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 16-34 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 76' Sin Bin — Kobe Hetherington (Sea Eagles) — 16-34 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.57 (edge +0.5%) — model probability 61.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 6 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sea Eagles are the call at 61%, but Knights stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 74 ELO points clear, 1469 to 1395. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Knights.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 6.3, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Sea Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Knights have won 5 of the last 10 between these two, and Sea Eagles took the most recent meeting 44-24 in 2026 Round 25.

Knights have put up 122 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 10th against Knights 6th.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Sea Eagles $1.57 and Knights $2.41, with the line at Sea Eagles -5.5.

Knights come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 4 · Knights 5 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 44-24 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 6-6 this season |
| Knights last 4 | WWLL · 122 for, 140 against |
| Knights away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 10th · Knights 6th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Knights 100% |
| Market | Sea Eagles $1.57 · Knights $2.41 |
| Line | Sea Eagles -5.5 |
| Rest gap | Sea Eagles 7d · Knights 14d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 7W–6L | 54% |
| Knights | 2W–6L | 25% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Sea Eagles have won 7 of 13 games (54%), significantly stronger than Knights's 2 from 8 (25%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 33.0pts | Avg Score | 14.0pts |
| 27.0pts | Avg Conceded | 41.6pts |
| 6.0pts | Avg Margin | -27.6pts |
| 1740.8m | Run Metres | 1428.4m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 330.2 | Tackles | 355.8 |
| 13.0 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | R24 L · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · R1 L | 33.0 |
| Knights | R24 L · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · R1 W | 14.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Knights | 24 – 44 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R14 | Knights | 26 – 22 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R19 | Sea Eagles | 44 – 6 | Knights |
| 2023 | R13 | Knights | 28 – 18 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R5 | Sea Eagles | 32 – 32 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 11th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Garrick, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the middle: NRL's 17th-ranked middle attack (0.92 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 12th there (1.79 conceded/game). Key man: Croker, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.42/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.92/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 1.17/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.79/g (def 12th) | 0.92/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2.25/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.29/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 8th) | 0.63/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 18 | 11 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 192m/g | 179m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.4% | 87.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 60 · 51 | 34 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 716m/g | 753m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.9/g | 22.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.2% | 74.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 15 | 10 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 498m/g | 509m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Fullbacks 0.45/g (lg 0.42) +7%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Wingers 1.35/g (lg 1.27) +6% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.42) +5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 41/61g | 44% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 22/39g | 46% | — | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·1·1) | 2/3g | 23/36g | 60% | — | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·2·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 40/59g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2·0) | 2/2g | 10/19g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 5/17g | 8/30g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 1/3g | 8% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/48g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 2/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Kobe Hetherington | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 5/7g | 19/40g | 36% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 10/35g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 17/97g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Joey Walsh | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 2/23g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 6/38g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Paul Bryan | INT | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 2/4g | 18% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 8/7g | 1/2g | 50% | — | 🏉 12' 46' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 1/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 6/7g | 0/2g | 36% | — | 🏉 1' |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/12g | 1/6g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/5g | 8% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 14 | Thomas Cant | RES | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Francis Manuleleua | RES | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1469 · Knights 1395 · ELO difference: 74 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 962 | 896 | Sea Eagles +66 |
| Backs | 989 | 860 | Sea Eagles +130 |
| Halves | 1001 | 861 | Sea Eagles +139 |
| Hooker | 990 | 894 | Sea Eagles +95 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-15 22:22 UTC (latest tip update)