Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 55% probability. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Roosters have a 65% win rate under this referee. Roosters's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
55%
Rabbitohs
45%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 63-point ELO rating advantage (1521 vs 1458). Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Roosters by 2.3 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.83
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Line / Spread
Roosters -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Roosters 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | R2025-R25L R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2025-R28L R2026-R1L older → newer | 22.8 |
Rabbitohs | R2025-R23W R2025-R24W R2025-R25W R2025-R27L R2026-R1W | 25.2 |
Avg Conceded
21.6
Roosters
20.0
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
1.2
Roosters
5.2
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1566
Roosters
1694
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
6.0
Roosters
5.2
Rabbitohs
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 26 of 40 games (65%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 15 from 33 (45%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Rabbitohs get a +-0.9 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Roosters's -1.4. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Roosters predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +2.3
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