# Roosters v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 26 – 18 Rabbitohs

_Roosters strut past Rabbitohs._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 55% / Rabbitohs 45% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 13 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Daly Cherry-Evans (17' 1st), Daniel Tupou (26'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (52'), James Tedesco (79') · Rabbitohs: Alex Johnston (31'), Alex Johnston (41'), Campbell Graham (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 55% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Mar 2026, 09:57 am · Last updated: 13 Mar 2026, 10:46 pm_

Roosters 26–18 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 2 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

South Sydney did most things you'd want from a side chasing a win. They completed at 80%, they held the ball for 51% of it, and they gave away only 11 errors to the Roosters' 14. On paper, that's the tidier team. It just wasn't the better one where it counted.

The Rabbitohs actually led the second half of the arm-wrestle at times, clawing back from 12-4 down to 12-10 through Alex Johnston's second try right on half-time. Campbell Graham got them within four at 20-16 with twenty to go. Twice they had it in range. Twice the Roosters had an answer ready.

That's the story of this one: Souths were the more careful side, the Roosters were the more dangerous one. Four line breaks to two tells you where the middle went. So does 575 post-contact metres to 463, a gap of over a hundred metres made after the tackle started, which is exactly the sort of stat that shows up when a forward pack rated at 1036 is leaning on one rated at 974. The Roosters' hooker edge, 1044 to 918, matters too when you're talking about who controls the ruck speed that creates those extra metres.

Where it really got away from the Rabbitohs was territory. The Roosters kicked for 633 metres to Souths' 513, and 89.4% effective tackling against 87.8% isn't a chasm, but it's enough. Add the penalty count, five to seven against the Rabbitohs, and you've got a side spending more time in its own end and giving away cheap field position on top of it.

Daly Cherry-Evans set the tone early, scoring himself in the 16th minute to open it up, then Daniel Tupou made it 10-0 before Souths found any rhythm. Johnston's double kept them level on the scoreboard through the middle of the game, and Graham's try with eleven minutes left had Allianz Stadium thinking upset. James Tedesco closed it out in the 79th, and Mark Nawaqanitawase's try in between, the one that made it 16-12, was the score that mattered most because it meant Souths were always chasing, never level, from the 51st minute on.

Souths' form line coming in was the better one, four wins from five against the Roosters' two, and they'd been averaging more points and a healthier margin over that stretch. None of that showed up here. The Roosters' halves and forward pack ratings, both comfortably ahead of Souths' equivalents, did the talking instead.

Alphr's model had the Roosters at 55% and picked them by 2.3 points before kick-off. They won by eight, so the head was right, even if the margin was conservative. The total of 44 points predicted matched the final combined score exactly. All four picks landed, which won't happen every week, but it's the kind of week you write down.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 12 | 14 | 26 |
| Rabbitohs | 6 | 12 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 74% | Completion rate | **80%** |
| **1,664** | Run metres | 1,515 |
| **575** | Post-contact metres | 463 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **35** | Tackle breaks | 32 |
| 7 | Offloads | 7 |
| **89.4%** | Effective tackle % | 87.8% |
| **32** | Missed tackles | 35 |
| 14 | Errors | **11** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **633** | Kick metres | 513 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 55% probability. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 44, within 0 points. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Roosters have a 67% win rate under this referee. Roosters's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 16' Try — Daly Cherry-Evans (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 26' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 30' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 40' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 51' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 69' Try — Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs) — 20-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 79' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 24-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.83 (edge +2.6%) — model probability 55.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 2 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 55%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 63 ELO points clear, 1521 to 1458. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Roosters.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 50-20 in 2026 Round 27.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Roosters 5, Rabbitohs 3.

On the ladder it's Roosters 14th against Rabbitohs 5th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.83 and Rabbitohs $2.01, with the line at Roosters -1.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 7 · Rabbitohs 3 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 50-20 |
| Roosters last 4 | LLWW · 114 for, 99 against |
| Roosters at home | 9-4 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 14th · Rabbitohs 5th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Roosters $1.83 · Rabbitohs $2.01 |
| Line | Roosters -1.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 30W–15L | 67% |
| Rabbitohs | 16W–20L | 44% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 30 of 45 games (67%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 16 from 36 (44%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +-0.4 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Roosters's -0.8. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | 5.2pts |
| 1566.4m | Run Metres | 1693.6m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 329.0 | Tackles | 309.2 |
| 14.6 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R25 L · R26 W · R27 W · FW1 L · R1 L | 22.8 |
| Rabbitohs | R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R27 L · R1 W | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Rabbitohs | 50 – 20 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R27 | Roosters | 36 – 6 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R5 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 14 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R27 | Rabbitohs | 28 – 36 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R3 | Roosters | 48 – 6 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.76 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 16th there (2.13 conceded/game). Key man: Tedesco, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.46 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 1st there (0.72 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.6/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 8th) | 0.63/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.76/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.72/g (def 10th) | 1.08/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.13/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.16/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.72/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.46/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 18 | 7 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 159m/g | 152m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.5% | 85.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 75 · 51 | 48 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 719m/g | 647m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.9/g | 12.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.9% | 77.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 16 | 17 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 494m/g | 498m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 89.4% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.23/g (lg 0.14) +64% · Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Wingers 1.34/g (lg 1.27) +6%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.31/g (lg 0.27) +15% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.22) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 18/29g | 25/48g | 46% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 0 in 1g | 11/10g (2·1·2·0·2·3·0·1·0·0) | 12/25g | 72/98g | 56% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 3/9g | 30% | — | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/9g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 0 in 1g | 11/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·4·3·1·0) | 4/2g | 10/10g | 50% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/25g | 3/22g | 22% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 7/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/24g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Benaiah Ioelu | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 4/30g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 3/14g | 8/29g | 36% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Egan Butcher | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/19g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/13g | 7/42g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Blake Steep | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/11g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/13g | 3/27g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/3g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0·1) | 18/24g | 9/19g | 50% | — | 🏉 31' 41' |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | CE | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/9g | 23/40g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/19g | 2/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 2 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/12g | 1/5g | 26% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 9/22g | 2/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Sullivan | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/17g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 1/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Peter Mamouzelos | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Tallis Duncan | INT | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (2·2·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 16 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Sean Keppie | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1521 · Rabbitohs 1458 · ELO difference: 63 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1036 | 974 | Roosters +62 |
| Backs | 1003 | 975 | Roosters +28 |
| Halves | 1002 | 942 | Roosters +60 |
| Hooker | 1044 | 918 | Roosters +126 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Roosters predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-13 11:46 UTC (latest tip update)