# Panthers v Sharks — NRL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 26 – 6 Sharks

_Panthers pounce on Sharks._

Half time: 18 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 73% / Sharks 27% · Carrington Park, Bathurst · Sat, 14 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Brian To'o (6' 1st), Thomas Jenkins (34'), Nathan Cleary (39'), Thomas Jenkins (44') · Sharks: Sione Katoa (57')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 73% | Won |
| Sharks | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Mar 2026, 09:57 am · Last updated: 15 Mar 2026, 12:15 am_

Panthers 26–6 Sharks in NRL Round 2 at Carrington Park, Bathurst. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Sharks won the tackle-breaks count, 31 to 30. They forced 30 missed tackles out of the Panthers line. On paper, that's a side doing plenty right. It wasn't enough, because none of it showed up on the scoreboard until the game was already gone.

Panthers beat them 26-6 at Carrington Park, and the Sharks' problem wasn't effort, it was execution. Thirteen errors to the Panthers' 11 doesn't sound like a chasm, but every one of them landed at the wrong time. Five penalties conceded to three kept handing Penrith field position they didn't need. A completion rate of 74% against Penrith's 82% meant the Sharks simply had the ball in their hands less often, and when they did, they made less of it.

The forward pack numbers tell an odd story too. Cronulla's forwards rated stronger going in, 1131 to 1077, and their hooker and halves were rated above Penrith's as well. None of it translated into go-forward. Penrith ran for 1,649 metres to the Sharks' 1,380, a gap of nearly 270 metres that no rating system predicts on paper but showed up all night on the ground.

Brian To'o set the tone early, scoring in the 6th minute to make it 4-0, and from there the Sharks were chasing a scoreboard that kept moving away from them. Thomas Jenkins crossed in the 34th minute, Nathan Cleary followed four minutes later right on the stroke of half-time, and by the break it was 18-0. Two tries in five minutes either side of the interval is the kind of stretch that buries a team, and it buried this one.

Jenkins added his second in the 43rd minute to make it 22-0, and by then the contest was academic. Sione Katoa gave the Sharks something to show for their afternoon in the 57th minute, finishing it out at 24-4 before the last score rounded things out to 26-6. Katoa's try was the only points the visitors managed all day, and it came too late to mean anything beyond the numbers.

Penrith's discipline and territory game did the damage. They kicked for 765 metres to the Sharks' 597, controlled 52% of possession, and turned six line breaks into scoreboard pressure while Cronulla managed only two. Post-contact metres, 488 to 424, backed up the completion numbers: Penrith simply kept the ball longer and made more of every carry.

The formlines going in had these two sides level, both 4-2 across their last five, with the Sharks actually shading Penrith in a couple of markers, average score and error count among them. Alphr's model still had Penrith favourites at 73%, rating them 1603 to 1602 and pegging the margin at 9.7. The final gap was 20, so the model had the right side of the ledger but undersold how comfortable it would get. It went 3 from 4 on this one, correctly picking the winner, covering the 8.5-point line, and nailing the under on a total of 42.5. Reasonable numbers, beaten by an even more one-sided game.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 18 | 8 | 26 |
| Sharks | 0 | 6 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 74% |
| **1,649** | Run metres | 1,380 |
| **488** | Post-contact metres | 424 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **31** |
| **10** | Offloads | 9 |
| **89.0%** | Effective tackle % | 88.4% |
| 31 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| **11** | Errors | 13 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **765** | Kick metres | 597 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 9.7 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. The model went 3/4 on this match. Panthers covered the 8.5-point line. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 11 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Panthers's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Panthers have a 52% win rate under this referee. Panthers's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 34' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 38' Try — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 43' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 57' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 24-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.33 (edge +1.4%) — model probability 73.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 10 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 73% to see off Sharks.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Panthers by 9.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 26-6 in 2026 Round 2.

Panthers are 11-3 at home this year. Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Panthers 3rd against Sharks 2nd.

The market has Panthers favourites, Panthers $1.33 and Sharks $3.36, with the line at Panthers -8.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 9 · Sharks 1 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 26-6 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 95 for, 54 against |
| Panthers at home | 11-3 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks away | 6-7 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 3rd · Sharks 2nd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Panthers $1.33 · Sharks $3.36 |
| Line | Panthers -8.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 30W–28L | 52% |
| Sharks | 26W–34L | 43% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Panthers hold a 9-point edge: 30W–28L (52%) vs Sharks's 26W–34L (43%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 30.0pts | Avg Score | 28.0pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 12.0pts |
| 16.0pts | Avg Margin | 16.0pts |
| 1812.0m | Run Metres | 1617.8m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 338.2 | Tackles | 351.0 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | R27 W · FW1 W · SF W · PF L · R1 W | 30.0 |
| Sharks | R27 W · FW1 W · SF W · PF L · R1 W | 28.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R1 | Panthers | 28 – 22 | Sharks |
| 2024 | PF | Panthers | 26 – 6 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R12 | Sharks | 0 – 42 | Panthers |
| 2023 | R22 | Panthers | 28 – 0 | Sharks |
| 2022 | R19 | Panthers | 20 – 10 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.48 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 2nd there (1.04 conceded/game). Key man: McLean, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.59 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 3rd there (1.07 conceded/game). Key man: Iro, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.48/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.59/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.15/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.78/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.26/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.04/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 10th) | 0.85/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 14 | 19 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 203m/g | 180m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.7% | 87.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 68 · 49 | 62 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 800m/g | 736m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.8/g | 17.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.1% | 80.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 16 · 20 | 26 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 493m/g | 510m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 89.9% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.22) +9%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.42/g (lg 0.46) -9% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.42) -21% · Hookers 0.11/g (lg 0.14) -21%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Carrington Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/12g | 1/6g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 2 in 1g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 47% | — | 🏉 34' 44' |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·3·2·0) | 4/5g | 1/2g | 42% | — | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 1 in 1g | 9/10g (1·1·2·0·2·1·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 51% | — | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/3g | 38% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/4g | 30% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Luke Garner | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/18g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Cogger | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Billy Phillips | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Kalani Leuluai-Going | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 44% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 5/11g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 5 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 41% | — | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 2 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Thomas Hazelton | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Billy Burns | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Jesse Colquhoun | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Toby Rudolf | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | RES | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1603 · Sharks 1602 · ELO difference: 1 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1077 | 1131 | Sharks +55 |
| Backs | 1121 | 1087 | Panthers +34 |
| Halves | 1068 | 1104 | Sharks +36 |
| Hooker | 1066 | 1115 | Sharks +49 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Panthers predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-14 13:15 UTC (latest tip update)