Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 9.7 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 42.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 12 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Panthers's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Panthers have a 51% win rate under this referee. Panthers's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Panthers
73%
Sharks
27%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sharks. The model sees Panthers ahead on 2 of 7 key factors including Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. The margin model predicts Panthers by 9.7 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.4%
Line / Spread
Panthers -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Panthers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 42.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Panthers | R2025-R27W R2025-R28W R2025-R29W R2025-R30L R2026-R1W older → newer | 30.0 |
Sharks | R2025-R27W R2025-R28W R2025-R29W R2025-R30L R2026-R1W | 28.0 |
Avg Conceded
14.0
Panthers
12.0
Sharks
Avg Margin
16.0
Panthers
16.0
Sharks
Run Metres
1812
Panthers
1618
Sharks
Line Breaks
4.8
Panthers
4.2
Sharks
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Panthers hold a 7-point edge: 29W–28L (51%) vs Sharks's 25W–32L (44%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Sharks get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Panthers's +0.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Panthers predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +9.7
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