Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Panthers
73%
Sharks
27%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Sharks. The model sees Panthers ahead on 2 of 7 key factors including Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. Recent form favours Sharks with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Panthers. The margin model predicts Panthers by 9.7 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.33
Winner ✓
Edge
+1.4%
Line / Spread
Panthers -8.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Panthers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 42.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Panthers | WWWLL | 25.6 |
Sharks | WWWWL | 26.0 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Panthers
13.2
Sharks
Avg Margin
6.0
Panthers
12.8
Sharks
Run Metres
1676
Panthers
1617
Sharks
Line Breaks
5.2
Panthers
4.2
Sharks
Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Ashley Klein officiates — Panthers 27W–28L (49%) and Sharks 25W–31L (45%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Panthers an additional edge at home.
Avg Total
43.4 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Panthers predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: +9.7
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