Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.3 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 66 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 49. Storm led 14–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 2/4 on this match. The over 46.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 24 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Storm's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Storm have a 73% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Storm prevailed. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
41%
Storm
59%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 59% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 41%. The model sees Storm ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 281-point ELO rating advantage (1645 vs 1364). Recent form favours Storm with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Storm by 4.3 points with a combined total of 49.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
-10.3%
Line / Spread
Dragons +8.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Storm 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | R2025-R24L R2025-R25L R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2026-R1L older → newer | 13.6 |
Storm | R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2025-R28W R2025-R30W R2026-R1W | 24.8 |
Avg Conceded
29.8
Dragons
21.2
Storm
Avg Margin
-16.2
Dragons
3.6
Storm
Run Metres
1608
Dragons
1680
Storm
Line Breaks
3.0
Dragons
5.8
Storm
Referee Indicator
Favours StormGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Storm have won 48 of 66 games (73%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 11 from 34 (32%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Dragons get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Storm's +0.7. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
59%
Storm predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 49 · Line: -4.3
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