# Dragons v Storm — NRL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 20 – 46 Storm

_Storm put Dragons to the sword._

Half time: 14 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 41% / Storm 59% · WIN Stadium, Wollongong · Sat, 14 Mar, 05:30 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Christian Tuipulotu (19'), Valentine Holmes (29'), Clinton Gutherson (35'), Valentine Holmes (51') · Storm: Will Warbrick (12' 1st), Jack Howarth (15'), Harry Grant (40'), Sualauvi Faalogo (62'), Sualauvi Faalogo (65'), Jahrome Hughes (69'), Sualauvi Faalogo (75'), Moses Leo (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 59% | Won |
| Dragons | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.3 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Mar 2026, 09:57 am · Last updated: 14 Mar 2026, 07:31 pm_

Dragons 20–46 Storm in NRL Round 2 at WIN Stadium, Wollongong. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-four tackle breaks to twenty-seven. That's the number that explains how Storm walked out of WIN Stadium with a 46-20 win over the Dragons, because every time St George Illawarra needed a shoulder to hold, Melbourne found a way through it.

The ledger was tight enough early on. Warbrick and Howarth had Storm out 12-0 inside 15 minutes, but the Dragons hit back through Tuipulotu, Holmes and Gutherson to level things at 12-12 by the 35th minute. Grant's try just before the break nudged Storm back in front, 14-18 at half-time, and Holmes drew the Dragons level again at 18-18 early in the second half. At that point it was anyone's game.

Then Faalogo happened. Three times. His hat-trick either side of the hour, sandwiched around Jahrome Hughes crossing at the 69th, turned an 18-18 contest into a 20-38 rout inside twelve minutes. Moses Leo's try in the 79th was just the formality that closes the ledger.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard did late. Storm completed at 87% to the Dragons's 76%, coughed the ball up only 7 times against 11 Dragons errors, and cracked the line 8 times to 5. None of that is an accident against a Dragons forward pack and halves pairing rated well below Storm's going in, 891 to 1153 up front and 895 to 1161 in the halves. When your platform is that far behind, you spend the day chasing shape, not setting it.

The missed tackles number tells the rest of it. Forty-four missed by the Dragons against 27 by Storm, with an effective tackle rate of 86.6% against 89.0%. That gap is exactly why Storm's 44 tackle busts turned into points rather than just metres. Melbourne also shaded the kicking game, 658 metres to 536, which kept field position on their terms for long stretches.

Valentine Holmes was arguably the shining light for a Dragons side that had lost five straight coming in, scoring twice and giving them something to build a comeback around at 18-18. But the form line told the story before kick-off: Dragons averaging 13.6 points and shipping 29.8 across their last five, Storm coming off three straight wins averaging 24.8 scored and only 21.2 conceded. A side that leaky in defence was always going to struggle once Storm found their groove, and find it they did.

Alphr's model had Storm favourites at 59% and pegged the margin at 4.3, with a combined total of 49. The winner was right, the size of it wasn't close, the actual margin blew out to 26 and the total finished at 66, seventeen points over. Two from four on this one. The over on 46.5 landed, and once Faalogo got going in that second-half stretch, that particular projection was never really in doubt.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 14 | 6 | 20 |
| Storm | 18 | 28 | 46 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 76% | Completion rate | **87%** |
| 1,667 | Run metres | **1,718** |
| **579** | Post-contact metres | 561 |
| 5 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 27 | Tackle breaks | **44** |
| 7 | Offloads | **8** |
| 86.6% | Effective tackle % | **89.0%** |
| 44 | Missed tackles | **27** |
| 11 | Errors | **7** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| 536 | Kick metres | **658** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.3 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 66 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 49. Storm led 14–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 2/4 on this match. The over 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 24 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Storm's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Storm have a 69% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Storm prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 12' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 0-6 · win-prob swing -9 pts
- 15' Try — Jack Howarth (Storm) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 19' Try — Christian Tuipulotu (Dragons) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 28' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 8-12 · win-prob swing +17 pts
- 35' Try — Clinton Gutherson (Dragons) — 12-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 39' Try — Harry Grant (Storm) — 14-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 50' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 18-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 62' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 20-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 65' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 20-28 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 69' Try — Jahrome Hughes (Storm) — 20-32 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 74' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 20-38 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 79' Try — Moses Leo (Storm) — 20-44 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.38 (edge -10.3%) — model probability 59.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 4 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 59%, but Dragons stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 281 ELO points clear, 1645 to 1364. Form leans Storm's way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Dragons.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Storm by 4.3, with the two sides combining for about 49. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 46-20 in 2026 Round 2.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 3-9 at home this year. Storm have put up 126 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Dragons 11th against Storm 1st.

The market has Storm favourites, Dragons $3.16 and Storm $1.38, with the line at Dragons +8.5.

Dragons come in fresher, 13 days between games against 8.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 4 · Storm 6 |
| Last meeting | Storm 46-20 |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons at home | 3-9 this season |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 11th · Storm 1st |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Storm 0% |
| Market | Dragons $3.16 · Storm $1.38 |
| Line | Dragons +8.5 |
| Rest gap | Dragons 13d · Storm 8d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 11W–24L | 31% |
| Storm | 42W–19L | 69% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Storm have won 42 of 61 games (69%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 11 from 35 (31%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 13.6pts | Avg Score | 24.8pts |
| 29.8pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| -16.2pts | Avg Margin | 3.6pts |
| 1607.6m | Run Metres | 1679.8m |
| 3.0 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 409.6 | Tackles | 324.8 |
| 8.4 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | R24 L · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · R1 L | 13.6 |
| Storm | R26 L · R27 L · FW1 W · PF W · R1 W | 24.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R4 | Dragons | 14 – 8 | Storm |
| 2024 | R22 | Storm | 16 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R25 | Dragons | 28 – 38 | Storm |
| 2022 | R9 | Storm | 42 – 6 | Dragons |
| 2021 | R10 | Storm | 44 – 18 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 6th there (1.11 conceded/game). Key man: Tuipulotu, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.04 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 15th there (2.04 conceded/game). Key man: Hughes, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.21/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 9th) | 1.37/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.33/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.04/g (def 15th (weak)) | 2.04/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.79/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 12th) | 1.22/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 19 | 17 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 155m/g | 234m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 5.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.2% | 86% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 55 · 61 | 72 · 66 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 723m/g | 701m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.7/g | 14.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.4% | 79.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 16 | 26 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 483m/g | 529m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.9% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.35/g (lg 1.27) +6% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.71) -3% · Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.1) -10%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36% · 2nd Rows 0.61/g (lg 0.46) +33% · Fullbacks 0.55/g (lg 0.42) +31%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at WIN Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 2/8g | 22% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 2 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (3·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 6/7g | 40% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 3/24g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 7/16g | 4/5g | 40% | — | 🏉 29' 51' |
| 5 | Setu Tu | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 6/11g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Daniel Atkinson | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 6/23g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 3/18g | 32% | — | — |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Hame Sele | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Lawrie | RES | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/36g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ryan Couchman | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 2 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | — | 🏉 62' 65' 75' |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 1 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 3/3g | 3/1g | 54% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 19% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 4 | Moses Leo | CE | 1 in 1g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | 🏉 80' |
| 5 | Nick Meaney | WG | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 6/7g | 3/3g | 36% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 2 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 34% | — | 🏉 40' |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Chan | 2R | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 12 | Ativalu Lisati | 2R | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |
| 13 | Tui Kamikamica | LK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Clarke | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Hetherington | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Davvy Moale | RES | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1364 · Storm 1645 · ELO difference: 281 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 891 | 1153 | Storm +262 |
| Backs | 846 | 1153 | Storm +307 |
| Halves | 895 | 1161 | Storm +266 |
| Hooker | 828 | 1138 | Storm +310 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Storm |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Storm predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-14 08:31 UTC (latest tip update)