Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dolphins by 7.7 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Dolphins trailed 0–8 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–14. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 15 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
64%
Titans
36%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Dolphins carry a 141-point ELO rating advantage (1477 vs 1336). Recent form favours Dolphins with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 7.7 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.37
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.0%
Line / Spread
Titans +9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Dolphins 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 55.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | R2025-R24L R2025-R25L R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2026-R1L older → newer | 37.2 |
Titans | R2025-R24L R2025-R25L R2025-R26L R2025-R27W R2026-R1L | 23.2 |
Avg Conceded
38.0
Dolphins
40.0
Titans
Avg Margin
-0.8
Dolphins
-16.8
Titans
Run Metres
1695
Dolphins
1522
Titans
Line Breaks
8.0
Dolphins
4.6
Titans
Referee Indicator
BalancedLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Liam Kennedy, Dolphins 1W–4L (20%) and Titans 3W–11L (21%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (5 games for Dolphins).
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Titans get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Dolphins's -0.4.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Dolphins predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +7.7
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