Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
64%
Titans
36%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Dolphins carry a 141-point ELO rating advantage (1477 vs 1336). Recent form favours Dolphins with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 7.7 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.37
Winner ✓
Edge
-5.0%
Line / Spread
Titans +9.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Dolphins 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 55.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | WWLLL | 33.6 |
Titans | WLLLL | 24.8 |
Avg Conceded
42.8
Dolphins
34.0
Titans
Avg Margin
-9.2
Dolphins
-9.2
Titans
Run Metres
1612
Dolphins
1635
Titans
Line Breaks
7.6
Dolphins
5.2
Titans
Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Titans have won 3 of 13 games (23%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dolphins's 0 from 3 (0%). That's a 23‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.5 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Dolphins — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
45.5 pts
Home Win %
51%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
64%
Dolphins predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +7.7
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