# Dolphins v Titans — NRL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 18 – 14 Titans

_Dolphins rally to ride the wave past Titans from 8 down._

Half time: 0 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 64% / Titans 36% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 15 Mar, 06:15 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (53'), Jake Averillo (67'), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (72') · Titans: Jojo Fifita (34' 1st), Cooper Bai (45')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 64% | Won |
| Titans | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 2 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Mar 2026, 09:57 am · Last updated: 15 Mar 2026, 08:01 pm_

Dolphins 18–14 Titans in NRL Round 2 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nothing about the second half suggested it was coming, and then it just did. Dolphins went to the sheds at Suncorp Stadium down 0-8, having done precisely nothing with the ball that mattered, and came out the other end to win 18-14. That's a 12-point swing after the break, and it's the whole story of the match.

The Titans had the first half won on script. Jojo Fifita crossed in the 33rd minute, Cooper Bai added another in the 44th, and at 0-12 the Dolphins looked like a side whose form line (LLWWL) was about to read LLWWL-L. Then Kulikefu Finefeuiaki scored in the 52nd to get the board moving, Jake Averillo went over in the 67th to put Dolphins in front for the first time, and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow finished it off in the 72nd. Three tries in twenty minutes, and the Titans had no answer for any of them.

What's odd is the Titans were the tidier side all game. They completed at 80% to the Dolphins' 76%, and gave up just 11 errors to the Dolphins' 14. On paper that's the side that should be controlling things. But rugby league doesn't hand out points for neat handling, it hands them out for metres and missed tackles, and that's where this one was actually decided.

Dolphins ran for 1,885 metres to the Titans' 1,577, and backed it up with 569 post-contact metres to 521. That's a team getting over the advantage line and then dragging defenders another metre or two every carry, week after week, until the line finally cracks. The tackle-break count tells the same story: 32 to 25, with 10 offloads to the Titans' 7. That's a forward pack living up to its pre-match rating of 957 against 846, and a spine, with the Dolphins' hooker rated 1006 against the Titans' 804, that kept feeding it.

Where it really came apart for the Titans was in defence. They missed 32 tackles to the Dolphins' 25, and their effective tackle rate sagged to 87.8% against 91.7%. Missing that many tackles against a pack that's already winning the collision is asking for exactly what happened in that final quarter.

The Titans did have one string to their bow. They kicked for 815 metres to the Dolphins' 550, which is a real territorial edge, but territory without go-forward is just a longer walk to the same result. Their recent form had them at minus 16.8 points average margin over their last five, and for a half they looked like they might buck that. In the end the trend held.

Alphr's model had Dolphins winning at 64% and predicted the margin at 7.7 points against an actual 4. Given the scoreline sat at 0-8 with 33 minutes gone, that's a read that stood up to a fair bit of pressure before it came good. All four picks for this match landed. The Dolphins didn't get here by being careful with the footy, they got here by being harder to stop with it, and in the end that was worth more than a clean sheet on errors.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 0 | 18 | 18 |
| Titans | 8 | 6 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 76% | Completion rate | **80%** |
| **1,885** | Run metres | 1,577 |
| **569** | Post-contact metres | 521 |
| 2 | Line breaks | 2 |
| **32** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| **10** | Offloads | 7 |
| **91.7%** | Effective tackle % | 87.8% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 32 |
| 14 | Errors | **11** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 550 | Kick metres | **815** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 64% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dolphins by 7.7 vs the actual margin of 4 points. Dolphins trailed 0–8 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–14. A clean sweep, all 4 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 15 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 33' Try — Jojo Fifita (Titans) — 0-6 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 44' Try — Cooper Bai (Titans) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 52' Try — Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (Dolphins) — 4-14 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 67' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 10-14 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 72' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 16-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.37 (edge -5.0%) — model probability 64.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 8 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 64%, but Titans stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 141 ELO points clear, 1477 to 1336. Form leans Dolphins' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 7 of the last 8 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 24-20 in 2026 Round 27.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Dolphins 5, Titans 3.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 12th against Titans 16th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dolphins $1.37 and Titans $3.11, with the line at Dolphins -9.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Dolphins 7 · Titans 1 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 24-20 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-5 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 12th · Titans 16th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 100% · Titans 0% |
| Market | Dolphins $1.37 · Titans $3.11 |
| Line | Dolphins -9.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 1W–4L | 20% |
| Titans | 3W–13L | 19% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Liam Kennedy, Dolphins 1W–4L (20%) and Titans 3W–13L (19%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (5 games for Dolphins).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 37.2pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 38.0pts | Avg Conceded | 40.0pts |
| -0.8pts | Avg Margin | -16.8pts |
| 1694.8m | Run Metres | 1522.2m |
| 8.0 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 323.2 | Tackles | 340.0 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R24 L · R25 L · R26 W · R27 W · R1 L | 37.2 |
| Titans | R24 L · R25 L · R26 L · R27 W · R1 L | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Titans | 20 – 24 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R26 | Dolphins | 36 – 30 | Titans |
| 2025 | R5 | Titans | 10 – 36 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R21 | Dolphins | 14 – 21 | Titans |
| 2024 | R4 | Titans | 14 – 30 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 13th there (1.96 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.46 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 14th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Fermor, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) | 1.13/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 11th) | 1.21/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.96/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.13/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.46/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.58/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 16 | 16 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 222m/g | 189m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.1% | 85.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 72 · 63 | 56 · 75 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 769m/g | 679m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.1/g | 12.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.2% | 76.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 17 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 488m/g | 551m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 91% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.16) +69% · Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.42) +50% · 2nd Rows 0.61/g (lg 0.46) +33%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.28/g (lg 0.22) +27% · Centres 0.87/g (lg 0.71) +23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 1 in 1g | 13/10g (1·4·2·0·0·1·0·1·3·1) | 6/8g | 26/30g | 60% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/13g | 32/75g | 38% | — | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 1 in 1g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 1/9g | 13/26g | 42% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 1 in 1g | 8/10g (1·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 5/10g | 25/62g | 50% | — | — |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 28/49g | 24% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 9/18g | 23/82g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/28g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/17g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 4/56g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/8g | 7/28g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 1 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/15g | 12% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Max Plath | HK | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/12g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Oryn Keeley | INT | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/14g | 17% | — | — |
| 16 | Felise Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 2/38g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Ray Stone | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 2/27g | 8% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 2 | Siale Faeamani | WG | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 36% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 4 | Max Feagai | CE | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 0 in 1g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·2·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 6/14g | 42% | — | — |
| 6 | AJ Brimson | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/4g | 6/13g | 34% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/19g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 1 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 4/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Arama Hau | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 5/11g | 34% | — | — |
| 13 | Chris Randall | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/12g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Tukimihia Simpkins | RES | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Bai | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 45' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1477 · Titans 1336 · ELO difference: 141 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 957 | 846 | Dolphins +111 |
| Backs | 949 | 821 | Dolphins +128 |
| Halves | 949 | 808 | Dolphins +141 |
| Hooker | 1006 | 804 | Dolphins +202 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-15 09:01 UTC (latest tip update)