NRL | Round 2

alphr.com.au

DOL
Dolphins
VS
GLD
Titans
SUNCORP STADIUM, BRISBANE • SUNDAY 15 MAR, 6:15 PM

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

64%DolphinsFavourite

Dolphins

64%

Titans

36%

AI Match Overview

Dolphins hold the advantage at 64% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 36%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Dolphins carry a 141-point ELO rating advantage (1477 vs 1336). Recent form favours Dolphins with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 7.7 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Dolphins to Win @1.37

Winner ✓

Edge

-5.0%

Line / Spread

Titans +9.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Dolphins 1-12 @2.55

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 55.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Dolphins
WWLLL
33.6
Titans
WLLLL
24.8

Avg Conceded

42.8

Dolphins

34.0

Titans

Avg Margin

-9.2

Dolphins

-9.2

Titans

Run Metres

1612

Dolphins

1635

Titans

Line Breaks

7.6

Dolphins

5.2

Titans

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Titans
Liam Kennedy59 games since 2018

Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

DOL
0%0W 3L
GLD
23%3W 10L

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Titans have won 3 of 13 games (23%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Dolphins's 0 from 3 (0%). That's a 23‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 45.5 pts, sitting close to the league average. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Dolphins — interpret with caution.

Avg Total

45.5 pts

Home Win %

51%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Dolphins lead 4-1
Sep 2025DOL 36 - 30 GLD
Apr 2025DOL 36 - 10 GLD
Aug 2024DOL 14 - 21 GLD
Mar 2024DOL 30 - 14 GLD
Jul 2023DOL 23 - 21 GLD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

DOL
1477Overall1336
GLD
ELO difference: +141 in favour of Dolphins

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

957Forwards846
DOL +111
949Backs821
DOL +128
949Halves808
DOL +141
1006Hooker804
DOL +202

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

DOL
Stat
GLD
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
1.0
33.6pts
Avg Score
24.8pts
42.8pts
Avg Conceded
34.0pts
-9.2pts
Avg Margin
-9.2pts
1611.8m
Run Metres
1634.6m
7.6
Line Breaks
5.2
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Dolphins
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Dolphins
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Dolphins
4
Halves Control9.0%
Dolphins
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Dolphins
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Dolphins
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Dolphins

Model Confidence

64%

Dolphins predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +7.7

4/4 match predictions correct
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