Win Probability
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 67% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.3 but the actual margin was 8 points. The game's 72 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 72 points was 22 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Eels bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 60% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Eels prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
67%
Eels
33%
AI Match Overview
Broncos are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Broncos ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Broncos carry a 98-point ELO rating advantage (1545 vs 1447). Recent form favours Broncos with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Eels. The margin model predicts Broncos by 7.3 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.26
Lost ✗
Edge
-8.6%
Line / Spread
Eels +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Broncos 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2025-R28W R2025-R30W R2026-R1L older → newer | 22.6 |
Eels | R2025-R24L R2025-R25W R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2026-R1L | 28.4 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Broncos
22.8
Eels
Avg Margin
0.2
Broncos
5.6
Eels
Run Metres
1662
Broncos
1638
Eels
Line Breaks
4.6
Broncos
5.6
Eels
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Broncos have won 3 of 5 games (60%), significantly stronger than Eels's 4 from 9 (44%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Broncos).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Eels get a +1.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Broncos's -0.4.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Broncos predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +7.3
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