# Broncos v Eels — NRL Round 2 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 32 – 40 Eels

_Eels slither past Broncos._

Half time: 20 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 67% / Eels 33% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Thu, 12 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Reece Walsh (4' 1st), Kotoni Staggs (10'), Payne Haas (25'), Kotoni Staggs (46'), Reece Walsh (61' 1st) · Eels: Kelma Tuilagi (17'), Ryley Smith (30'), Kelma Tuilagi (33'), Isaiah Iongi (36'), Isaiah Iongi (42'), Sean Russell (67'), Jonah Pezet (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 67% | Lost |
| Eels | 33% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 7.3 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Broncos vs Eels Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 2, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Mar 2026, 09:57 am · Last updated: 12 Mar 2026, 10:40 pm_

Broncos 32–40 Eels in NRL Round 2 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve errors to five. That's the number that sunk the Broncos, and it's how the Eels left Suncorp Stadium with a 40-32 win despite spending less time with the ball.

Reece Walsh had the home side flying early, opening the scoring in the 4th minute and adding a second inside the first ten as the Broncos raced to a 10-0 lead. Kotoni Staggs and Payne Haas kept the scoreboard ticking their way and by the 25th minute it was 18-6. On the balance of chances created, the Broncos were the better side in patches. On the balance of chances taken care of, they weren't close.

The Eels chipped away through Kelma Tuilagi, who crossed twice, and Ryley Smith, before Isaiah Iongi scored either side of the 35th minute to flip a 20-6 deficit into a 20-26 lead heading toward the break. Brisbane hit back through Staggs to make it 24-26, but the Eels went to the sheds up 22-20, having scored 22 unanswered points across that stretch while the Broncos were busy giving the ball away.

That completion rate tells the story on its own: 88% for the Eels against 75% for the Broncos. Five errors compared to twelve is the kind of gap that no amount of enterprise with ball in hand papers over, and Brisbane had plenty of enterprise, out-gaining the Eels 1,617 run metres to 1,525 and leading tackle breaks 32-28 with seven offloads to five. None of it mattered enough when the Eels simply held onto the footy more often than not.

Discipline compounded it. Eight penalties conceded to three is a lot of extra ball and extra field position to hand a side that scored 40 points, and Brisbane's defence cracked for 32 missed tackles against the Eels' 28. Reece Walsh crossed for his second in the 60th minute to push Brisbane back in front at 30-28, but Sean Russell levelled it at 32-all in the 67th, and Jonah Pezet's try in the 78th minute was the one that mattered, sealing it 40-32.

The pre-match numbers had Brisbane's spine well on top: 1,084 to 911 in the halves, 1,064 to 910 at hooker, ratings that had the Broncos favourites by 7.3 points and 67% to win. On paper, this was theirs. The Eels' last five form (three wins from five, averaging 28.4 points scored) suggested a side that could put points on you even when the underlying numbers didn't scream favourite, and that's exactly what played out.

Alphr's model got the shape of a shootout right, just not who'd win it. It picked a 44-point total for a game that produced 72, and had Brisbane covering a margin the Eels ended up covering themselves, at 8 points instead of the predicted 7.3 the wrong way. One from four on this one. Wins and misses, all of it, and this was a miss worth remembering: when a side wins the ball security battle by that much, the ledger tends to follow.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 20 | 12 | 32 |
| Eels | 22 | 18 | 40 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **88%** |
| **1,617** | Run metres | 1,525 |
| 446 | Post-contact metres | **472** |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| **32** | Tackle breaks | 28 |
| **7** | Offloads | 5 |
| **89.5%** | Effective tackle % | 86.3% |
| **28** | Missed tackles | 32 |
| 12 | Errors | **5** |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| **610** | Kick metres | 601 |

**Model Report Card**

Eels defied the model's 67% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.3 but the actual margin was 8 points. The game's 72 points came in 28 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 1/4 on this match. Eels covered the 12.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 72 points was 22 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Eels prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 10' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 17' Try — Kelma Tuilagi (Eels) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 25' Try — Payne Haas (Broncos) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 30' Try — Ryley Smith (Eels) — 20-10 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 33' Try — Kelma Tuilagi (Eels) — 20-16 · win-prob swing -16 pts
- 35' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 20-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 42' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 20-26 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 45' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 24-26 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 60' Try — Reece Walsh (Broncos) — 30-28 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 67' Try — Sean Russell (Eels) — 32-32 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 78' Try — Jonah Pezet (Eels) — 32-38 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.26 (edge -8.6%) — model probability 67.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 7 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Broncos here: 67% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 98 ELO points clear, 1545 to 1447. Form leans Broncos' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Eels.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Broncos by 7.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four; Broncos are 2-10 at home this year. Eels are 3-9 on the road this year. Broncos have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Broncos 15th against Eels 17th.

The market has Broncos favourites, Broncos $1.26 and Eels $3.90, with the line at Broncos -12.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 5 · Eels 5 |
| Last meeting | Eels 40-32 |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos at home | 2-10 this season |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 15th · Eels 17th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 0% · Eels 0% |
| Market | Broncos $1.26 · Eels $3.90 |
| Line | Broncos -12.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 3W–5L | 38% |
| Eels | 4W–6L | 40% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Wyatt Raymond, Broncos 3W–5L (38%) and Eels 4W–6L (40%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Eels get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Broncos's +0.0.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.6pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 22.8pts |
| 0.2pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 1662.4m | Run Metres | 1637.6m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 358.8 | Tackles | 335.4 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | R26 W · R27 W · FW1 W · PF W · R1 L | 22.6 |
| Eels | R24 L · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · R1 L | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R21 | Broncos | 20 – 22 | Eels |
| 2024 | R25 | Broncos | 30 – 24 | Eels |
| 2024 | R10 | Eels | 14 – 30 | Broncos |
| 2023 | R24 | Broncos | 54 – 10 | Eels |
| 2023 | R8 | Eels | 16 – 26 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.59 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 13th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Shibasaki, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 12th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 10th there (1.11 conceded/game). Key man: Penisini, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.59/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.15/g (def 10th) | 1.08/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.81/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.37/g (def 7th) | 1.58/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.19/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 10th) | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 13 | 16 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 118m/g | 167m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.8% | 86.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 85 · 63 | 50 · 58 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 720m/g | 734m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21.3/g | 16.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.3% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 17 | 13 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 584m/g | 482m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.1/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Centres 0.93/g (lg 0.71) +31%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10% · Centres 0.77/g (lg 0.71) +8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·1·2·1·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 20/37g | 64% | — | 🏉 4' 61' |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/16g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 0 in 1g | 8/10g (2·0·2·1·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/13g | 43/81g | 42% | — | 🏉 10' 46' |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 0 in 1g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 11/21g | 40% | — | — |
| 5 | Deine Mariner | WG | 0 in 1g | 9/10g (2·0·1·2·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 4/4g | 10/28g | 48% | — | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 19/37g | 40% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/20g | 9/61g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Jensen | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/53g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 5/43g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 8/82g | 14% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 11 | Jack Gosiewski | 2R | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/18g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 13/68g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 2/68g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Ben Hunt | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/22g | 26/114g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Xavier Willison | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/31g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Ben Talty | INT | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 29% | — | — |
| 17 | Aublix Tawha | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 36' 42' |
| 2 | Bailey Simonsson | WG | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/7g | 34% | — | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 2/8g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 1 in 1g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 1/4g | 28% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | no games | 11/10g (1·0·0·1·1·2·0·2·1·3) | 14/14g | 23/22g | 56% | — | — |
| 6 | Jonah Pezet | 5/8 | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 0 in 1g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0) | 4/17g | 3/16g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/14g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/20g | 1/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 17' 33' |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/15g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Doorey | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1545 · Eels 1447 · ELO difference: 98 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1051 | 925 | Broncos +126 |
| Backs | 1083 | 918 | Broncos +166 |
| Halves | 1084 | 911 | Broncos +173 |
| Hooker | 1064 | 910 | Broncos +154 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Eels |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Broncos predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-12 11:40 UTC (latest tip update)