Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Broncos
67%
Eels
33%
AI Match Overview
Broncos are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Broncos ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Broncos carry a 98-point ELO rating advantage (1545 vs 1447). Recent form favours Broncos with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Eels. The margin model predicts Broncos by 7.3 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.26
Lost ✗
Edge
-8.6%
Line / Spread
Eels +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Broncos 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | WWWWW | 31.8 |
Eels | WWWWL | 31.4 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Broncos
16.0
Eels
Avg Margin
12.2
Broncos
15.4
Eels
Run Metres
1796
Broncos
1694
Eels
Line Breaks
7.2
Broncos
5.4
Eels
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Broncos have won 2 of 3 games (67%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Eels's 3 from 8 (38%). That's a 29‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 49.6 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Broncos an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 3 games for Broncos — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
49.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Broncos predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +7.3
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