# Wests Tigers v Warriors — NRL Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 6 – 32 Warriors

_Warriors run riot over Wests Tigers._

Half time: 6 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 28% / Warriors 72% · Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 10 July, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Samuela Fainu (26') · Warriors: James Fisher-Harris (3' 1st), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (14' Tipped ⚡), Ali Leiataua (16' Tipped ⚡), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (50' Tipped ⚡), Wayde Egan (52'), Sam Healey (74')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 72% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.7 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 July 2026, 05:50 pm · Last updated: 10 July 2026, 09:55 pm_

Wests Tigers 6–32 Warriors in NRL Round 19 at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers wanted the ball in hand and the arm wrestle in the right ballpark. Warriors wanted metres, line breaks and pace off every ruck. Both sides got exactly what they were chasing, and only one of those approaches actually scores points.

Final score: Wests Tigers 6, Warriors 32, at Campbelltown Sports Stadium. The gap between the two says plenty about which style wins out when it matters.

Wests Tigers were the tidier side by most measures. They held 51% of the ball, completed at 84% to the Warriors' 74%, and coughed up just 10 errors to 16. They kicked for more metres too, 664 to 456, working field position the patient way. None of it counted for much against a Warriors side that ran for 1,878 metres to Wests Tigers' 1,374 and cut the line open 12 times to 2.

The game was shaped early. James Fisher-Harris scored inside two minutes, and Wests Tigers were down 0-14 by the 16th, with Alofiana Khan-Pereira and Ali Leiataua both crossing either side of a Bunty Afoa sin bin at the 12th minute. Samuela Fainu got one back in the 26th to make it 4-14, and the sides went to the break at 6-14, Warriors well on top.

The second half added to the margin rather than changing the picture. Khan-Pereira grabbed his second in the 49th, Wayde Egan followed three minutes later, and Sam Healey finished it off in the 74th. Three more tries, all Warriors, and the final margin blew out to 26 points.

The positional ratings explain a lot of this before a ball was even kicked. Warriors went in rated higher everywhere that counts: forwards 1064 to 864, backs 1095 to 875, halves 1055 to 859, hooker 1096 to 853. That's not a marginal edge, it's a gulf, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect, in go-forward and line breaks. Wests Tigers' possession and completion numbers were genuinely good footy, but good footy without go-forward just means being patient on the way to a loss.

Alphr's model had this one largely right. It gave Warriors a 72% chance of winning and picked them by 8.7 points on a combined total of 48. The head-to-head call landed, but the margin model undershot badly, missing by more than 17 points as Warriors won by 26 instead. Warriors also covered the 8.5-point line with room to spare.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Warriors | 14 | 18 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 74% |
| 1,374 | Run metres | **1,878** |
| **503** | Post-contact metres | 469 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **12** |
| 38 | Tackle breaks | **41** |
| **16** | Offloads | 5 |
| **87.6%** | Effective tackle % | 85.5% |
| 41 | Missed tackles | **38** |
| **10** | Errors | 16 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **664** | Kick metres | 456 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 72% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.7 but the actual margin was 26 points. Warriors led 6–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 4/17 on this match. Warriors covered the 8.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (0 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 38 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 0.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — James Fisher-Harris (Warriors) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 12' Sin Bin — Bunty Afoa (Wests Tigers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 13' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 16' Try — Ali Leiataua (Warriors) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 26' Try — Samuela Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 4-14 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 49' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 6-18 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 52' Try — Wayde Egan (Warriors) — 6-24 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 74' Try — Sam Healey (Warriors) — 6-30 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.34 (edge +0.6%) — model probability 71.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 9 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warriors here: 72% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 255 ELO points clear, 1594 to 1339. Form leans Warriors' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Wests Tigers.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warriors by 8.7, with the two sides combining for about 48. Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Warriors have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 32-6 in 2026 Round 19.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 12th against Warriors 2nd.

The market has Warriors favourites, Wests Tigers $3.28 and Warriors $1.34, with the line at Wests Tigers +8.5 and the total at 45.5.

Warriors come in fresher, 13 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 1 · Warriors 9 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 32-6 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 12th · Warriors 2nd |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Warriors 100% |
| Market | Wests Tigers $3.28 · Warriors $1.34 |
| Line | Wests Tigers +8.5 · total 45.5 |
| Rest gap | Wests Tigers 6d · Warriors 13d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Wyatt Raymond** — 0 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 0W–0L | 50% |
| Warriors | 0W–0L | 50% |

Avg total: 0.0 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Wyatt Raymond, Wests Tigers 0W–0L (50%) and Warriors 0W–0L (50%). Games average just 0.0 pts, below the norm, suggesting tighter officiating. Small sample (0 games for Wests Tigers).

Wests Tigers get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Warriors's +0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 14.8pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 33.6pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -18.8pts | Avg Margin | 6.0pts |
| 1579.8m | Run Metres | 1665.8m |
| 2.2 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 361.2 | Tackles | 360.8 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | R14 L · R15 W · R16 L · R17 L · R18 L | 14.8 |
| Warriors | R12 W · R13 L · R15 L · R16 W · R17 L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4 | Warriors | 14 – 32 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R19 | Warriors | 34 – 14 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R4 | Wests Tigers | 24 – 26 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R21 | Warriors | 28 – 16 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R24 | Wests Tigers | 22 – 30 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1.25 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 11th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Skelton, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.13 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 14th there (1.94 conceded/game). Key man: Clark, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.94/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.4/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.87/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.56/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.94/g (def 14th (weak)) | 2.13/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.25/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.47/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 11 | 11 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 233m/g | 164m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 85.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 31 · 47 | 44 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 700m/g | 646m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.6/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.6% | 77.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 15 | 18 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 527m/g | 586m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.7/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 89.4% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.84/g (lg 0.72) +17% · Fullbacks 0.47/g (lg 0.41) +15% · Wingers 1.2/g (lg 1.28) -6%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.59/g (lg 0.41) +44% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.27) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Campbelltown Sports Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (1·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 5/12g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 22% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 4 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 3/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 3 | Heamasi Makasini | CE | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 4/10g | 24% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 4/11g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·2) | 3/8g | 3/12g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 59% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Josese Lanyon | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Bunty Afoa | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/11g | 20% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 12 | Sione Fainu | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/10g | 8% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/26g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Latu Fainu | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/7g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Fonua Pole | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/20g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Tony Sukkar | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 5% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | WG | 8 in 8g | 9/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·4·1) | 5/7g | 0/4g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.69 AI 66% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 3 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 15% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 2/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·0·0·2·2·2·0·2·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' 50' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/16g | 0/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 10 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 5 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 15 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Marata Niukore | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1339 · Warriors 1594 · ELO difference: 255 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 864 | 1064 | Warriors +200 |
| Backs | 875 | 1095 | Warriors +221 |
| Halves | 859 | 1055 | Warriors +196 |
| Hooker | 853 | 1096 | Warriors +244 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Warriors predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-10 11:55 UTC (latest tip update)