# Roosters v Eels — NRL Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 28 – 12 Eels

_Roosters crow over Eels._

Half time: 4 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 80% / Eels 20% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 11 July, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Robert Toia (15' 1st Tipped ⚡), Daniel Tupou (51' Tipped ⚡), Billy Smith (61' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Tupou (66' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Tupou (72' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Joash Papalii (42'), Araz Nanva (80' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 80% | Won |
| Eels | 20% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.5 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 July 2026, 05:50 pm · Last updated: 11 July 2026, 09:29 pm_

Roosters 28–12 Eels in NRL Round 19 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Daniel Tupou's second-half hat-trick was the turning point in the Roosters' 28–12 win over the Eels at Allianz Stadium. His three tries in 22 minutes broke open a match that had been tight until then. The Roosters led 4–0 at half-time, thanks to Robert Toia's early try, but it was Tupou's scoring burst that put the game beyond doubt.

The Eels briefly levelled the score at 4–4 with Joash Papalii's try right after the break. However, the Roosters quickly regained control. Tupou's first try of the half came in the 50th minute, followed by Billy Smith's try, which further extended their lead. Tupou added two more tries, sealing the Roosters' dominance.

The Roosters' pre-match ratings suggested they had the edge in both the forwards and backs, and this played out on the field. They controlled 58% of possession and ran for 1,790 metres, consistently pushing the Eels back. Tupou's hat-trick highlighted the Roosters' attacking sharpness, as they broke the line four times compared to the Eels' three.

The Eels struggled to keep up, with a completion rate of just 69% and 18 errors. These mistakes were costly against a Roosters side that completed at 75% and made fewer errors. The Roosters' ability to maintain possession and convert opportunities was key to their victory.

Physically, the Roosters were superior. They gained 713 post-contact metres and broke 40 tackles, showcasing their strength in contact. The Eels missed 40 tackles, highlighting their defensive struggles against the Roosters' relentless attack.

Territory was another area where the Roosters excelled. They kicked for 563 metres, keeping the Eels pinned in their own half and limiting their attacking opportunities. The Roosters' forwards and backs worked together seamlessly, transitioning from defence to attack with ease.

Alphr's model predicted an 80% probability of a Roosters win, with a margin of 11.5 points. The Roosters' 16-point victory was well within these expectations. The model also anticipated a total score of 44 points, close to the actual 40, demonstrating its accuracy.

In summary, the Roosters capitalised on their strengths when it mattered most. Tupou's timely scoring, combined with the pack's physicality, ensured a convincing win. The Eels, on the other hand, need to address their defensive issues and reduce errors to turn close games into victories.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 4 | 24 | 28 |
| Eels | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| **58%** | Possession | 42% |
| **75%** | Completion rate | 69% |
| **1,790** | Run metres | 1,231 |
| **713** | Post-contact metres | 436 |
| **4** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **40** | Tackle breaks | 24 |
| **10** | Offloads | 9 |
| 86.0% | Effective tackle % | **87.9%** |
| **24** | Missed tackles | 40 |
| **12** | Errors | 18 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **563** | Kick metres | 430 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 80% probability. The predicted margin of 11.5 was reasonable against the actual 16-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. Roosters led 4–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 6/17 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (0 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 40 points above Adam Gee's career average of 0. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 15' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 41' Try — Joash Papalii (Eels) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 50' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 60' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 66' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 20-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 72' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 79' Try — Araz Nanva (Eels) — 28-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.23 (edge +2.7%) — model probability 80.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 12 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Roosters here: 80% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 208 ELO points clear, 1587 to 1379. Form leans Roosters' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 11.5, with the two sides combining for about 44. Roosters to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 28-12 in 2026 Round 19.

Eels are 3-9 on the road this year. Roosters have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Roosters 3rd against Eels 14th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.23 and Eels $4.20, with the line at Roosters -13.5 and the total at 47.5.

Roosters come in fresher, 14 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 7 · Eels 3 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 28-12 |
| Roosters last 4 | LLWW · 114 for, 99 against |
| Roosters at home | 9-4 this season |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 3rd · Eels 14th |
| Finals odds | Roosters 100% · Eels 0% |
| Market | Roosters $1.23 · Eels $4.20 |
| Line | Roosters -13.5 · total 47.5 |
| Rest gap | Roosters 14d · Eels 6d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 0 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 0W–0L | 50% |
| Eels | 0W–0L | 50% |

Avg total: 0.0 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Roosters 0W–0L (50%) and Eels 0W–0L (50%). Games average just 0.0 pts, below the norm, suggesting tighter officiating. Small sample (0 games for Roosters).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.2pts | Avg Score | 16.8pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| -0.2pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 1685.0m | Run Metres | 1626.0m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 363.6 | Tackles | 327.4 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 14.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R13 L · R14 W · R15 L · R16 W · R17 W | 18.2 |
| Eels | R13 L · R14 L · R15 W · R17 L · R18 W | 16.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R25 | Eels | 30 – 10 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R24 | Roosters | 38 – 14 | Eels |
| 2024 | R15 | Eels | 18 – 28 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R25 | Eels | 12 – 34 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R5 | Roosters | 28 – 20 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 7th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.88 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 8th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.93/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 7th) | 0.88/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.94/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.6/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 8th) | 1.88/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.73/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.88/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 8 | 11 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 148m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.8% | 82.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 47 · 35 | 29 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 2.4/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 742m/g | 696m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.9/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.7% | 77.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 9 | 9 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 542m/g | 472m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 88.4% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46% · Centres 1.05/g (lg 0.72) +46%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.16) +13% · Fullbacks 0.46/g (lg 0.41) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·2·1·1·0) | 14/18g | 76/103g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.64 AI 75% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' 66' 72' |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 0/3g | 4/10g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 8 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 5/15g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 12 in 11g | 12/10g (1·0·2·0·2·2·0·3·2·0) | 0/1g | 17/16g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.36 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 4 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/26g | 5/28g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Hugo Savala | HB | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/12g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/30g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 1 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 7/48g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/20g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 7/45g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Benaiah Ioelu | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Taylor Losalu | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/23g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | De La Salle Va'a | RES | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 0/5g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Araz Nanva | CE | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 20% ✓ Scored | 🏉 80' |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 6 in 15g | 3/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 14/15g | 0/2g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Ronald Volkman | 5/8 | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 8 | Sam Tuivaiti | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | HK | 6 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/21g | 1/16g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 6/20g | 7/14g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Toni Mataele | RES | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Teancum Brown | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1587 · Eels 1379 · ELO difference: 208 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1073 | 851 | Roosters +222 |
| Backs | 1088 | 901 | Roosters +187 |
| Halves | 1081 | 913 | Roosters +167 |
| Hooker | 1122 | 841 | Roosters +282 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Roosters predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-11 11:29 UTC (latest tip update)