# Rabbitohs v Knights — NRL Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 26 – 24 Knights

_Rabbitohs hold off a fast-finishing Knights._

Half time: 20 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 49% / Knights 51% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 12 July, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Campbell Graham (10' 1st Tipped 🎯), Tevita Tatola (17'), David Fifita (28' Tipped ⚡), Tallis Duncan (40' Tipped ⚡), Jye Gray (64') · Knights: Dominic Young (33'), Kalyn Ponga (68'), Kalyn Ponga (70'), Harrison Graham (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 51% | Lost |
| Rabbitohs | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 July 2026, 05:50 pm · Last updated: 12 July 2026, 03:59 pm_

Rabbitohs 26–24 Knights in NRL Round 19 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had this one as a coin toss with a lean, Knights to win at 51%, the margin sitting at Rabbitohs by 0.9 and the total at 44. The scoreline that actually landed was Rabbitohs 26, Knights 24, a two-point margin. Close enough on paper. The way it played out was anything but a coin toss.

Souths were out to 14-0 by the 28th minute, Campbell Graham opening it up in the 9th, Tevita Tatola following at 17, David Fifita at 28. Newcastle got one back through Dominic Young in the 33rd, but Tallis Duncan restored the three-score buffer just before the break. Rabbitohs 20, Knights 6 at half-time. That's not a game that reads as a 0.9-point model, that's a team playing like the ratings had it backwards.

The back half told a different story. Jye Gray's try in the 63rd stretched it to 24-6 and looked like game over. Then Kalyn Ponga went to work, two tries in the space of a minute at the 68th and 69th, and Harrison Graham got the Knights within four at 26-22 in the 75th. Suddenly a laugher was a genuine arm-wrestle, and the final margin of two points ended up matching the model's pre-match lean almost to the point.

Look at the stat sheet and you can see both halves of the story. Rabbitohs completed at 83% to the Knights' 70%, made only 10 errors to 14, and controlled the ball at 51%. That's the discipline that built the 20-6 lead. But the raw physicality numbers tell you why Newcastle came storming back: 1,799 run metres to 1,670, 47 tackle breaks to 41, and 18 offloads to just 6. The Knights were the side doing more with the footy in hand, they just did too much of it too late.

Defensively, Souths were the shakier outfit all night, missing 47 tackles against the Knights' 41 and completing only 79.3% of tackles to Newcastle's 88.9%. That gap is exactly how a 20-6 lead becomes a 26-22 scare. Souths made up for it with territory, banking 646 kicking metres to 429 and grinding out 588 post-contact metres, the sort of relentless carry-and-kick game that let them bank first-half points and then hang on.

The pre-match numbers had the Knights favoured on both packs and the spine, forwards 1021 to 954, backs 1009 to 965, hooker 1057 to 1023, and their recent form backed it up with four wins from five against Souths' two. None of that showed up until the last quarter. For fifty-odd minutes Souths played like the higher-rated side, then the Knights' form and physical edge finally found the scoreboard.

Alphr's model finished 6 from 17 on this one, missing the winner but landing the margin band and the total within six points. The Rabbitohs covered the 1.5-point line. Wins and misses, all of it, and this was a match that made the model look both right and wrong inside the same 80 minutes.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 20 | 6 | 26 |
| Knights | 6 | 18 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **83%** | Completion rate | 70% |
| 1,670 | Run metres | **1,799** |
| **588** | Post-contact metres | 520 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 5 |
| 41 | Tackle breaks | **47** |
| 6 | Offloads | **18** |
| 79.3% | Effective tackle % | **88.9%** |
| 47 | Missed tackles | **41** |
| **10** | Errors | 14 |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **646** | Kick metres | 429 |

**Model Report Card**

Rabbitohs defied the model's 51% prediction for Knights, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Rabbitohs by 0.9 vs the actual margin of 2 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 50, within 6 points. The model went 6/17 on this match. Rabbitohs covered the 1.5-point line. The Draw margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (0 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 50 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 0. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 17' Try — Tevita Tatola (Rabbitohs) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 28' Try — David Fifita (Rabbitohs) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 33' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 39' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 63' Try — Jye Gray (Rabbitohs) — 24-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 68' Try — Kalyn Ponga (Knights) — 26-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 69' Try — Kalyn Ponga (Knights) — 26-16 · win-prob swing -13 pts
- 75' Try — Harrison Graham (Knights) — 26-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.85 (edge -0.4%) — model probability 51.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs Draw @ $8.00 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Rabbitohs and Knights. The model can't split them, landing on Knights at 51%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Knights sit 38 ELO points clear, 1531 to 1494. Form leans Knights' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Rabbitohs.

Knights own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 20-10 in 2026 Round 28.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Knights have won 3 straight. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 8th against Knights 4th.

The market has Knights favourites, Rabbitohs $1.98 and Knights $1.85, with the line at Rabbitohs +1.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 4 · Knights 6 |
| Last meeting | Knights 20-10 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LWWW · 86 for, 80 against |
| Knights away | 9-6 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 8th · Knights 4th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Rabbitohs $1.98 · Knights $1.85 |
| Line | Rabbitohs +1.5 · total 48.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 0 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 0W–0L | 50% |
| Knights | 0W–0L | 50% |

Avg total: 0.0 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Rabbitohs 0W–0L (50%) and Knights 0W–0L (50%). Games average just 0.0 pts, below the norm, suggesting tighter officiating. Small sample (0 games for Rabbitohs).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Knights's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 21.0pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| 2.8pts | Avg Margin | 2.6pts |
| 1722.0m | Run Metres | 1733.2m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 330.8 | Tackles | 368.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | R12 L · R14 L · R15 W · R17 W · R18 L | 25.2 |
| Knights | R13 W · R14 L · R16 W · R17 W · R18 W | 21.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FW1 | Rabbitohs | 10 – 20 | Knights |
| 2026 | R9 | Knights | 42 – 38 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R9 | Rabbitohs | 4 – 30 | Knights |
| 2024 | R25 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 36 | Knights |
| 2023 | R25 | Knights | 29 – 10 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.73 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 7th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Graham, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.94 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 11th there (1.47 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.13/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.47/g (def 11th) | 1.94/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.27/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.47/g (def 7th) | 1.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 2.06/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.73/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.87/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.06/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 7 | 8 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 158m/g | 214m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84% | 85.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 52 · 35 | 45 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 721m/g | 759m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.5/g | 21/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.2% | 75% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 12 | 16 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 595m/g | 491m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.1/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.9% | 90% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.32/g (lg 0.22) +45% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.44/g (lg 0.27) +63% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.13) +62% · Fullbacks 0.51/g (lg 0.41) +24%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | FB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/13g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 18% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Dayne Jennings | WG | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | — | — |
| 3 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 7 in 15g | 6/10g (0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/4g | 5/24g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 40' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/21g | 6/22g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (2·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 26/57g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 10' |
| 6 | Jayden Sullivan | 5/8 | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| 7 | Ashton Ward | HB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 5/66g | 4% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 11/51g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 7/9g | 3/7g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 20% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| 12 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/13g | 6/21g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 17/69g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Jamie Humphreys | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/10g | 15% | — | — |
| 16 | John Radel | RES | 1 in 3g | 1/3g (1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/6g | 14% | — | 🏉 68' 70' |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 14 in 16g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 5/5g | 38% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 15/40g | 10% | — | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 15 in 15g | 10/10g (0·0·3·5·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/6g | 1/5g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | CE | 7 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·0·0) | 4/3g | 1/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/12g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 5 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 9 in 13g | 9/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·2·1·1·1) | 3/3g | 3/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 7/23g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Lachlan Crouch | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1494 · Knights 1531 · ELO difference: 38 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 954 | 1021 | Knights +68 |
| Backs | 965 | 1009 | Knights +44 |
| Halves | 1013 | 1000 | Rabbitohs +13 |
| Hooker | 1023 | 1057 | Knights +35 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Knights |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Knights predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-12 05:59 UTC (latest tip update)