# Dolphins v Sharks — NRL Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 0 – 66 Sharks

_Sharks put Dolphins to the sword._

Half time: 0 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 63% / Sharks 37% · Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe · Sat, 11 July, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: none · Sharks: Oregon Kaufusi (16' 1st), KL Iro (22' Tipped ⚡), Sione Katoa (27' Tipped ⚡), Ronaldo Mulitalo (31' Tipped ⚡), KL Iro (48' Tipped ⚡), Jesse Ramien (51'), Nicho Hynes (58'), Sione Katoa (62' Tipped ⚡), Thomas Hazelton (70'), Nicho Hynes (74'), Jesse Ramien (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 63% | Lost |
| Sharks | 37% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.3 predicted → 66 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 July 2026, 05:50 pm · Last updated: 11 July 2026, 04:54 pm_

Dolphins 0–66 Sharks in NRL Round 19 at Kayo Stadium, Redcliffe. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dolphins were left searching for answers after a 66–0 thrashing by Sharks at Kayo Stadium. Despite winning four of their last five matches and having a stronger lineup on paper, Dolphins faltered where it mattered. With only 41% possession and a poor completion rate of 69%, they couldn't keep the ball long enough to mount a serious challenge. Their forward pack, rated higher on the positional strength charts, couldn't convert that potential into on-ground dominance.

The Dolphins' defensive efforts were commendable in some areas, with an effective tackle rate of 87.3%. However, the 36 missed tackles told another story. They couldn't maintain their efforts against a relentless Sharks attack. The penalty count favoured them slightly, with only four conceded. Yet, discipline alone doesn't win matches when you're chasing shadows all game.

Possession was firmly with Sharks, who owned 59% of it and put it to good use. The Dolphins were under constant pressure, forced into errors that never allowed them to settle. A striking 16 errors handed Sharks easy chances, and Sharks took them with zeal. Sharks demonstrated surgical precision, completing 91% of their sets. An attacking clinic was on show, finding 11 line breaks to the Dolphins' two.

Oregon Kaufusi set the tone by opening the scoring at 16 minutes. From there, it was a Sharks procession. KL Iro, Sione Katoa, Ronaldo Mulitalo, Jesse Ramien, Nicho Hynes, and Thomas Hazelton all took turns crossing the line, demonstrating the Sharks' wealth of attacking options. The Dolphins had no answers for the onslaught, which saw Sharks pile on unanswered points, leading 24–0 by halftime.

Territory was practically gifted to Sharks, and they capitalised by kicking for 675 metres. Comparatively, the Dolphins managed just 327 metres with the boot, constantly on the back foot. Dolphins' post-contact metres were also lacking, unable to match up to the 632 metres Sharks ground out. This physical edge only emphasised their dominance.

Alphr’s model had picked the Dolphins, with a 63% prediction for a win by 9.3 points, a read turned entirely on its head by the match’s end. The Sharks' excellent ball handling and ruthless efficiency led to a jaw-dropping 66-point margin.

The Dolphins head back to the drawing board, with the Sharks proving that statistics and predictions only tell half the story. A game is won on the field, not on paper.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sharks | 24 | 42 | 66 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 41% | Possession | **59%** |
| 69% | Completion rate | **91%** |
| 1,230 | Run metres | **1,927** |
| 359 | Post-contact metres | **632** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **11** |
| 33 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| 6 | Offloads | **12** |
| **87.3%** | Effective tackle % | 85.1% |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **33** |
| 16 | Errors | **6** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 327 | Kick metres | **675** |

**Model Report Card**

Sharks defied the model's 63% prediction for Dolphins, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.3 but the actual margin was 66 points. The game's 66 points came in 22 points higher than the predicted 44. Sharks led 0–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 66. The model went 3/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (0 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 66 points above Todd Smith's career average of 0.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 16' Try — Oregon Kaufusi (Sharks) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 22' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 26' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 31' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 48' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 0-28 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 51' Try — Jesse Ramien (Sharks) — 0-34 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 57' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 0-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 61' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 0-46 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 70' Try — Thomas Hazelton (Sharks) — 0-52 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 73' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 0-58 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 78' Try — Jesse Ramien (Sharks) — 0-64 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.56 (edge +2.1%) — model probability 63.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 9 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 63%, but Sharks stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 73 ELO points clear, 1640 to 1567.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 9.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 3 of the last 5 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 66-0 in 2026 Round 19.

Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four. Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 5th against Sharks 6th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dolphins $1.56 and Sharks $2.44, with the line at Dolphins -4.5 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 5) | Dolphins 3 · Sharks 2 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 66-0 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-5 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks away | 6-7 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 5th · Sharks 6th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Dolphins $1.56 · Sharks $2.44 |
| Line | Dolphins -4.5 · total 49.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Todd Smith** — 0 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 0W–0L | 50% |
| Sharks | 0W–0L | 50% |

Avg total: 0.0 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Dolphins 0W–0L (50%) and Sharks 0W–0L (50%). Games average just 0.0 pts, below the norm, suggesting tighter officiating. Small sample (0 games for Dolphins).

Dolphins get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Sharks's +0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 32.4pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 16.6pts | Avg Conceded | 17.0pts |
| 15.8pts | Avg Margin | 4.6pts |
| 1885.4m | Run Metres | 1653.4m |
| 6.8 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 361.6 | Tackles | 363.2 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 10.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R14 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W · R18 L | 32.4 |
| Sharks | R13 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 L · R18 W | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Dolphins lead 3-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3 | Sharks | 10 – 38 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R19 | Sharks | 24 – 12 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R15 | Sharks | 28 – 30 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R10 | Sharks | 16 – 36 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 12th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 5th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Katoa, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.4/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.56/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.93/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.63/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 5 | 15 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 2.9/g |
| Run Metres | 195m/g | 177m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 88.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 56 · 36 | 38 · 39 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 878m/g | 734m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.6/g | 15.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.9% | 79.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 11 | 14 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 501m/g | 467m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 6.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 90.8% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.09) +78% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.72) -1%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.22) +5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Kayo Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trai Fuller | FB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 27% | — | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 15 in 16g | 12/10g (2·1·3·0·1·1·0·1·2·1) | 1/10g | 4/9g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 78% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 6 in 8g | 8/10g (0·2·1·1·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 5/10g | 6/8g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/9g | 3/6g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 59% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | WG | 3 in 9g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/17g | 4/10g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Bradley Schneider | HB | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Felise Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/7g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 3 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Gilbert | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Sebastian Su'a | RES | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 7 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 6 in 9g | 8/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·3) | 2/4g | 3/2g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' 62' |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 18% | — | 🏉 51' 79' |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 9 in 14g | 8/10g (1·0·3·3·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' 48' |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 5 in 6g | 8/10g (0·2·1·0·2·0·2·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 3/2g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 8 in 15g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 58' 74' |
| 8 | Thomas Hazelton | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 9 | Jayden Berrell | RES | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Billy Burns | 2R | 4 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·3·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Hohepa Puru | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 17 | Tuku Hau Tapuha | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1640 · Sharks 1567 · ELO difference: 73 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1134 | 1031 | Dolphins +103 |
| Backs | 1139 | 1091 | Dolphins +48 |
| Halves | 1169 | 1102 | Dolphins +67 |
| Hooker | 1173 | 1060 | Dolphins +113 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-11 06:54 UTC (latest tip update)