# Bulldogs v Raiders — NRL Round 19 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 16 – 40 Raiders

_Raiders pillage Bulldogs._

Half time: 0 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 75% / Raiders 25% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 11 July, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Jethro Rinakama (43' Tipped ⚡), Matt Burton (71'), Connor Tracey (80') · Raiders: Xavier Savage (8' 1st Tipped 🎯), Noah Martin (17'), Zac Hosking (21'), Zac Hosking (51'), Zac Hosking (54'), Simi Sasagi (65' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 75% | Lost |
| Raiders | 25% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 6.2 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 19 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 July 2026, 05:50 pm · Last updated: 11 July 2026, 07:31 pm_

Bulldogs 16–40 Raiders in NRL Round 19 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

607 kick metres. That’s how the Raiders set up their 40-16 win over the Bulldogs at Accor Stadium. Nearly doubling the Bulldogs' kick metres, the Raiders kept them pinned back, forcing them to grind out territory. It was a tactical edge that shaped the victory.

The Raiders led 22-0 at half-time, built on efficient possession and clinical finishing. The Bulldogs struggled with 14 handling errors to the Raiders' 10. Hard to mount a comeback when errors keep you pinned in your own half.

Zac Hosking was a standout, scoring three tries at the 21st, 51st, and 53rd minutes. Xavier Savage and Noah Martin also crossed the line, helping the Raiders build momentum.

The Bulldogs didn’t go quietly. Jethro Rinakama, Matt Burton, and Connor Tracey managed tries, showing some bite in attack. They outstripped the Raiders with four line breaks to three. But it was too late, and the tries only added respectability to the scoreline.

The Raiders' 55% possession might not seem much, but it showed their control. With a 77% completion rate, they made every pass and kick count. Their effective tackle percentage was slightly better, but they made key tackles when it mattered.

The Bulldogs came in with strong form, winning four of their last five matches and averaging 20.6 points. Yet, their defence was fragile, conceding 15.6 points on average. The Raiders exploited this with relentless attack.

Alphr's model favoured the Bulldogs with a 75% chance of victory, predicting a win by 6.2 points. That prediction was off as the Raiders' game plan unfolded. The model missed, with the Raiders winning by 24 points. Sometimes numbers don’t tell the whole story.

In the end, it was about the metres. The Raiders' 563 post-contact metres, fewer penalties, and fewer errors showed a disciplined side exploiting the Bulldogs' weaknesses. They conceded just three penalties to the Bulldogs’ six. A commanding performance that surprised many.

That's rugby league. Sometimes numbers light the way; other times, they tell a cautionary tale.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 0 | 16 | 16 |
| Raiders | 22 | 18 | 40 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 72% | Completion rate | **77%** |
| 1,301 | Run metres | **1,562** |
| 468 | Post-contact metres | **563** |
| **4** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **28** |
| 7 | Offloads | **13** |
| 87.5% | Effective tackle % | **88.7%** |
| 28 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| 14 | Errors | **10** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 326 | Kick metres | **607** |

**Model Report Card**

Raiders defied the model's 75% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.2 but the actual margin was 24 points. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (0 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 56 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 0. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 16' Try — Noah Martin (Raiders) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 21' Try — Zac Hosking (Raiders) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 43' Try — Jethro Rinakama (Bulldogs) — 4-22 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 51' Try — Zac Hosking (Raiders) — 4-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 53' Try — Zac Hosking (Raiders) — 4-32 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 64' Try — Simi Sasagi (Raiders) — 4-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 70' Try — Matt Burton (Bulldogs) — 8-40 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 79' Try — Connor Tracey (Bulldogs) — 14-40 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.58 (edge +15.1%) — model probability 75.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 6 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 75% to see off Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 45 ELO points clear, 1436 to 1391. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Raiders.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Bulldogs by 6.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Raiders have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 40-16 in 2026 Round 19.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 10th against Raiders 13th.

The market has Bulldogs favourites, Bulldogs $1.58 and Raiders $2.39, with the line at Bulldogs -4.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 3 · Raiders 7 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 40-16 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 7-5 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 10th · Raiders 13th |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 0% · Raiders 0% |
| Market | Bulldogs $1.58 · Raiders $2.39 |
| Line | Bulldogs -4.5 · total 45.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Gerard Sutton** — 0 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 0W–0L | 50% |
| Raiders | 0W–0L | 50% |

Avg total: 0.0 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Bulldogs 0W–0L (50%) and Raiders 0W–0L (50%). Games average just 0.0 pts, below the norm, suggesting tighter officiating. Small sample (0 games for Bulldogs).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Raiders get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Bulldogs's -0.5. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.6pts | Avg Score | 16.4pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.2pts |
| 5.0pts | Avg Margin | -5.8pts |
| 1896.8m | Run Metres | 1705.6m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 3.0 |
| 352.8 | Tackles | 342.2 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | R12 W · R13 L · R14 W · R16 W · R17 W | 20.6 |
| Raiders | R13 W · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L · R17 W | 16.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R3 | Raiders | 10 – 14 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R10 | Raiders | 20 – 32 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R22 | Bulldogs | 22 – 18 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R11 | Raiders | 24 – 20 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R25 | Raiders | 36 – 24 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.4 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 6th there (1.31 conceded/game). Key man: Kiraz, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 10th-ranked right edge attack (1.13 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 7th there (1.07 conceded/game). Key man: Sasagi, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.4/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.47/g (def 10th) | 0.94/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.2/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 8th) | 1.25/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.33/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 7th) | 1.13/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 9th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 9 | 10 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 261m/g | 182m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 84.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 42 | 32 · 41 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 825m/g | 756m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.6/g | 19.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.8% | 77.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 7 | 11 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 476m/g | 530m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Centres 0.92/g (lg 0.72) +28% · Five-Eighths 0.32/g (lg 0.27) +19%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Wingers 1.38/g (lg 1.28) +8% · Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.09) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.42/g (lg 0.47) -11%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 4/28g | 14% | — | 🏉 80' |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 12/36g | 48% | — | — |
| 3 | Matt Burton | CE | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 16/43g | 20% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 5 | Jethro Rinakama | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 4/8g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Stephen Crichton | 5/8 | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 10/9g | 15/31g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 7/16g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 1/43g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/28g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Josh Curran | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/10g | 5/27g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaeman Salmon | 2R | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 2/35g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Harry Hayes | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | HK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 8/36g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Alekolasimi Jones | RES | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Underhill | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Lipoi Hopoi | RES | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/13g | 3% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 8 in 16g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/8g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 7 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 16% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | INT | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | INT | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 0/1g | 30% | — | — |
| 12 | Noah Martin | 2R | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 13 | Zac Hosking | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 21' 51' 54' |
| 14 | Tom Starling | INT | 2 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 1/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Ata Mariota | 2R | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | 5/8 | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 2/7g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1436 · Raiders 1391 · ELO difference: 45 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 900 | 877 | Bulldogs +23 |
| Backs | 920 | 855 | Bulldogs +65 |
| Halves | 906 | 886 | Bulldogs +21 |
| Hooker | 972 | 881 | Bulldogs +91 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-11 09:31 UTC (latest tip update)