# Panthers v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 36 – 14 Rabbitohs

_Panthers maul Rabbitohs._

Half time: 12 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 75% / Rabbitohs 25% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 03 July, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Dylan Edwards (3' 1st Tipped ⚡), Liam Henry (12'), Thomas Jenkins (48' Tipped ⚡), Thomas Jenkins (57' Tipped ⚡), Billy Phillips (67'), Thomas Jenkins (70' Tipped ⚡) · Rabbitohs: Edward Kosi (25' Tipped ⚡), Dayne Jennings (40'), Latrell Siegwalt (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 75% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.3 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 July 2026, 08:08 am · Last updated: 3 July 2026, 10:04 pm_

Panthers 36–14 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 18 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve minutes into the second half, this looked like exactly the kind of arm wrestle the ladder gap should have produced. Panthers led 12-10 at the break, Dylan Edwards opening the scoring in the second minute before Liam Henry's try made it 10-0, and Rabbitohs claw back through Edward Kosi and Dayne Jennings to trail by just two at half-time. Cody Walker had gone to the sin bin in the tenth minute, and for a while it barely mattered.

Then the second half turned into a different contest entirely. Thomas Jenkins crossed in the 48th, 57th and 70th minutes, Billy Phillips added one in between, and by the time Latrell Siegwalt got a late consolation in the 76th, Panthers had put 24 unanswered points on the board across that stretch. Jack Cogger's sin bin at 75 minutes was academic by then. Final score: Panthers 36, Rabbitohs 14, a 22-point margin from a two-point game at the break.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard did in the second half. Panthers completed at 86% to Rabbitohs' 77%, and coughed up the ball just 11 times to 13. That's the platform for everything else: more sets, more field position, more chances to hurt a tiring defence.

And hurt it they did. Panthers ran for 1,967 metres to 1,615, with 648 of that coming after contact, evidence of a forward pack (rated 1149 to 997 pre-match) that just kept getting over the advantage line. Fourteen offloads to six kept the ball alive when Rabbitohs thought they had a man wrapped up, and 44 tackle breaks to 32 tells you how often that wasn't a clean stop anyway.

Rabbitohs' defence had the harder night of it. Their effective tackle rate sat at 86.1% against Panthers' 89.8%, and they missed 44 tackles to Panthers' 32, the kind of gap that turns line breaks (6 to 5, close on paper) into repeat sets and eventually four-try bursts. Kosi, Jennings and Siegwalt all found the line, so the attack had moments, but with 13 errors and a leaking edge, there was no way to hold the concessions down after the break.

The ratings had this picked as a home win, with the Panthers' halves edge (1189 to 991) and hooker edge (1158 to 982) always likely to tell late. Alphr's model had Panthers at 75% to win and got the result right, but the margin call of 8.3 points undersold it badly against an actual gap of 22. Panthers covered the 3.5-point line with plenty to spare, and the model finished 5 from 16 on this one.

Form lines told part of the story too: Panthers arrived on a 29.2-point scoring average and conceding just 13.8, Rabbitohs on the wrong end of a 2.8-point average margin. On this evidence, that gap didn't close, it widened.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 12 | 24 | 36 |
| Rabbitohs | 10 | 4 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 77% |
| **1,967** | Run metres | 1,615 |
| **648** | Post-contact metres | 590 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **44** | Tackle breaks | 32 |
| **14** | Offloads | 6 |
| **89.8%** | Effective tackle % | 86.1% |
| **32** | Missed tackles | 44 |
| **11** | Errors | 13 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **653** | Kick metres | 588 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 75% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.3 but the actual margin was 22 points. Panthers led 12–10 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 5/16 on this match. Panthers covered the 3.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (299 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Panthers's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Panthers have a 70% win rate under this referee. Panthers's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 10' Sin Bin — Cody Walker (Rabbitohs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 12' Try — Liam Henry (Panthers) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 24' Try — Edward Kosi (Rabbitohs) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 39' Try — Dayne Jennings (Rabbitohs) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 48' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 57' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 67' Try — Billy Phillips (Panthers) — 28-10 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 70' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 34-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 75' Sin Bin — Jack Cogger (Panthers) — 34-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 76' Try — Latrell Siegwalt (Rabbitohs) — 36-14 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.63 (edge +16.3%) — model probability 74.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 8 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 75% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 153 ELO points clear, 1669 to 1516. Form leans Panthers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Rabbitohs.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 8.3, with the two sides combining for about 41. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 36-14 in 2026 Round 18.

Panthers have won 4 straight; Panthers are 11-2 at home this year. Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Panthers 1st against Rabbitohs 7th.

The market has Panthers favourites, Panthers $1.63 and Rabbitohs $2.27, with the line at Panthers -3.5 and the total at 46.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 17.1 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 8 · Rabbitohs 2 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 36-14 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWW · 103 for, 46 against |
| Panthers at home | 11-2 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 1st · Rabbitohs 7th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Panthers $1.63 · Rabbitohs $2.27 |
| Line | Panthers -3.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 17.1 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Adam Gee** — 299 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 28W–12L | 70% |
| Rabbitohs | 15W–19L | 44% |

Avg total: 42.8 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Panthers have won 28 of 40 games (70%), significantly stronger than Rabbitohs's 15 from 34 (44%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Panthers get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Rabbitohs's -0.4. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 29.2pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 13.8pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| 15.4pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 1949.2m | Run Metres | 1735.8m |
| 6.4 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 359.0 | Tackles | 321.0 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | R11 W · R13 W · R14 W · R16 L · R17 L | 29.2 |
| Rabbitohs | R11 L · R12 L · R14 L · R15 W · R17 W | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R20 | Panthers | 30 – 10 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R4 | Rabbitohs | 28 – 18 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R26 | Panthers | 34 – 12 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R9 | Rabbitohs | 12 – 42 | Panthers |
| 2023 | R8 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 18 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (2.07 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 9th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 22 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.21 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 1st there (0.8 conceded/game). Key man: Fifita, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.07/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 1st (strong)) | 2.21/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 2.27/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.87/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.36/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.93/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.71/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.93/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 4 | 7 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 210m/g | 157m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 2.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.3% | 84.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 51 · 21 | 49 · 31 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 878m/g | 721m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.2/g | 16.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 4.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 78.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 8 | 14 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 530m/g | 598m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 89.8% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.45/g (lg 0.27) +67% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.13) +62% · Fullbacks 0.5/g (lg 0.41) +22%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.47) +4% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.41) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 9 in 15g | 5/10g (1·1·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 8/21g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 20% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 22 in 15g | 10/10g (2·2·0·0·0·2·0·2·0·2) | 0/2g | 12/14g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 68% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 24% ✗ Not first | 🏉 48' 57' 70' |
| 3 | Izack Tago | INT | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/10g | 9/19g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 8/14g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 9 in 13g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·1·2·0) | 5/14g | 9/19g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 8/25g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 2/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/24g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Freddy Lussick | HK | 4 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Henry | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/10g | 8% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Lindsay Smith | LK | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 4/18g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Scott | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Kalani Leuluai-Going | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Billy Phillips | 2R | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 8% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 17 | Luron Patea | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 3% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Dayne Jennings | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 40' |
| 3 | Latrell Siegwalt | CE | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/22g | 2/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Edward Kosi | WG | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 2/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 6 in 14g | 6/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 9/20g | 9/14g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Ashton Ward | HB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 2/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 7 in 14g | 6/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/5g | 2/4g | 26% | 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Lachlan Hubner | LK | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Jamie Humphreys | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Euan Aitken | INT | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 3/10g | 24% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | John Radel | RES | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1669 · Rabbitohs 1516 · ELO difference: 153 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1149 | 997 | Panthers +152 |
| Backs | 1169 | 1035 | Panthers +134 |
| Halves | 1189 | 991 | Panthers +198 |
| Hooker | 1158 | 982 | Panthers +177 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Panthers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Panthers predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-03 12:04 UTC (latest tip update)