# Knights v Dolphins — NRL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 13 – 12 Dolphins

_A point the difference as Knights deny Dolphins._

Half time: 12 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 55% / Dolphins 45% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sun, 05 July, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Dylan Lucas (16' 1st Tipped 🎯), Fletcher Hunt (36') · Dolphins: Jamayne Isaako (50' Tipped ⚡), Kurt Donoghoe (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 55% | Won |
| Dolphins | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.3 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 July 2026, 08:08 am · Last updated: 5 July 2026, 05:54 pm_

Knights 13–12 Dolphins in NRL Round 18 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Knights edged out the Dolphins 13–12 at McDonald Jones Stadium, a match defined by scoreboard pressure rather than free-flowing play. The first half belonged to the Knights. They built a 12–0 lead and held firm. Dylan Lucas got them started, crossing early on, while Fletcher Hunt added another before the break. The Dolphins were left with work to do.

The early advantage put the Knights in the driver's seat. Dolphins played catch-up in the second half. A try from Jamayne Isaako clawed some ground back, and Kurt Donoghoe kept the pressure on by adding another soon after. But the Knights responded. Dylan Brown snapped a field goal late on, pushing the lead to 13–12. Pressure turned into points. That one-point margin proved critical in a tight finish.

Knights controlled 53% of possession, a crucial factor when the game is this close. However, the Dolphins didn’t go down without a fight, showing glimpses of sharpness in attack. They broke the line three times compared to the Knights' two. Yet, it wasn’t enough to break through the defensive wall the Knights put up.

The numbers told a mixed story. Dolphins completed 75% of their sets, a tad cleaner than the Knights' 72%. But they couldn't convert possession into points, a glaring issue on the night. Errors also played a part, the Knights committing 15 to the Dolphins' 13. In a match this close, every mistake counted.

Yardage was where the Knights shone. They outgained the Dolphins with 618 post-contact metres, proving harder to tackle. Tackle breaks saw them bust through 41 times to 30. The Knights' aggressive approach in contact set the platform. In contrast, the Dolphins missed 41 tackles, issues that contributed to their downfall.

The Dolphins had a stronger kicking game, booting for 710 metres compared to the Knights' 541. But territorial dominance from the boot didn't translate into the scoreboard pressure they needed. The Knights' defence held. Their effective tackle rate of 88.7% versus the Dolphins' 87.6% might seem marginal, but it was enough on this occasion.

Pre-match numbers had tipped the Dolphins by a hair's breadth, with Alphr's model showing the Knights at a 55% chance of winning. The prediction was spot on, though the margin model expected the Dolphins by 0.3 points. It came within a whisker of the actual one-point difference.

Ultimately, it’s about moments. Dylan Brown’s field goal sealed the outcome. A tight contest, decided by small margins and one smart punt that hit its mark when it mattered. In a game of numbers and attrition, the Knights held their nerve, and that made all the difference.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 12 | 1 | 13 |
| Dolphins | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| 72% | Completion rate | **75%** |
| **1,848** | Run metres | 1,739 |
| **618** | Post-contact metres | 539 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **3** |
| **41** | Tackle breaks | 30 |
| 8 | Offloads | **11** |
| **88.7%** | Effective tackle % | 87.6% |
| **30** | Missed tackles | 41 |
| 15 | Errors | **13** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 3 |
| 541 | Kick metres | **710** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 55% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dolphins by 0.3 vs the actual margin of 1 points. The game's 25 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 6/17 on this match. Knights covered the 1.5-point line. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (51 career games). The combined score of 25 points was 25 points below Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Knights bucked the trend, Dolphins historically win 80% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Knights's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 15' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 36' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 50' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 58' Try — Kurt Donoghoe (Dolphins) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 75' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Dylan Brown (Knights) — 13-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.96 (edge +5.7%) — model probability 54.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 0 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Knights are the call at 55%, but Dolphins stay live at 45%. The ratings say otherwise: Dolphins sit 168 ELO points clear, 1670 to 1502, so the model is backing Knights against the ratings gap. Form leans Dolphins' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Knights.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Knights, which says Venue Advantage carry the most weight. Lean Knights, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Knights have won 6 of the last 7 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 13-12 in 2026 Round 18.

Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Knights 5th against Dolphins 3rd.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Knights $1.96 and Dolphins $1.87, with the line at Knights +1.5 and the total at 50.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 17.3 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game, home sides win 61% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Knights 6 · Dolphins 1 |
| Last meeting | Knights 13-12 |
| Knights last 4 | LLWW · 88 for, 110 against |
| Knights at home | 8-4 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 5th · Dolphins 3rd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Knights $1.96 · Dolphins $1.87 |
| Line | Knights +1.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 17.3 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Wyatt Raymond** — 51 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 2W–5L | 29% |
| Dolphins | 4W–1L | 80% |

Avg total: 50.2 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Dolphins have won 4 of 5 games (80%), significantly stronger than Knights's 2 from 7 (29%). Games average 50.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Dolphins).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 36.0pts |
| 18.4pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| 7.2pts | Avg Margin | 17.6pts |
| 1763.6m | Run Metres | 1903.0m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 7.6 |
| 361.6 | Tackles | 351.0 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | R11 W · R13 W · R14 L · R16 W · R17 W | 25.6 |
| Dolphins | R12 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 W · R17 W | 36.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R16 | Dolphins | 20 – 26 | Knights |
| 2025 | R2 | Knights | 26 – 12 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R27 | Knights | 14 – 6 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R8 | Dolphins | 14 – 18 | Knights |
| 2023 | R23 | Dolphins | 28 – 30 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.93 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 5th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 10th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 14 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.93/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.6/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.2/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.73/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 2.13/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.6/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.13/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 10th) | 1.67/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 14 | 8 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 215m/g | 199m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 87.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 44 · 35 | 55 · 35 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 754m/g | 879m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21.1/g | 20.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 4.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.1% | 83.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 14 | 8 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 493m/g | 504m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.9% | 91.3% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.22) +9% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%
**Who scores on Knights** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.09) +56% · Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.22) +50% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fletcher Sharpe | FB | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·2·0) | 1/3g | 16/17g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 14 in 15g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·2·3·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 28/37g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 57% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 26/115g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Fletcher Hunt | CE | 7 in 15g | 5/10g (1·3·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/14g | 35% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 15 in 14g | 12/10g (2·0·0·3·5·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 28/37g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 3/10g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/85g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 8/61g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 8 in 12g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·2·1·1) | 1/6g | 10/31g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 18% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 16' |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/15g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/50g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 10/60g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/24g | 0% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trai Fuller | FB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 14 in 15g | 11/10g (0·2·1·3·0·1·1·0·1·2) | 7/11g | 2/6g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.72 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 6 in 7g | 8/10g (0·0·2·1·1·2·1·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 1/6g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 8 in 14g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 3/8g | 1/3g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 68% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | WG | 3 in 8g | 7/10g (2·2·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.82 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/15g | 1/9g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Bradley Schneider | HB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 58' |
| 15 | Tom Gilbert | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Brian Pouniu | RES | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1670 vs 1502), but the market favours Knights (@1.96). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1502 · Dolphins 1670 · ELO difference: 168 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1033 | 1193 | Dolphins +160 |
| Backs | 1000 | 1196 | Dolphins +196 |
| Halves | 1035 | 1172 | Dolphins +138 |
| Hooker | 1039 | 1181 | Dolphins +141 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Knights favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-05 07:54 UTC (latest tip update)