# Eels v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 23 – 14 Sea Eagles

_Eels hit back to wriggle past Sea Eagles._

Half time: 6 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 30% / Sea Eagles 70% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 05 July, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Ronald Volkman (25' 1st), Kelma Tuilagi (42'), Isaiah Iongi (52' Tipped ⚡), Jonah Pezet (70') · Sea Eagles: Lehi Hopoate (35' Tipped ⚡), Joey Walsh (45')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 70% | Lost |
| Eels | 30% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.7 predicted → 9 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 July 2026, 08:08 am · Last updated: 5 July 2026, 03:54 pm_

Eels 23–14 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 18 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two different game plans sat inside the same 80 minutes at CommBank Stadium. The Eels wanted the ball in hand and the errors low. The Sea Eagles wanted territory, distance and the collision. On the day, patience beat ambition, and the Eels won 23-14.

The scoreboard didn't agree with that plan straight away. Ronald Volkman opened the scoring in the 25th minute, but Lehi Hopoate hit back ten minutes later to level it, and the Sea Eagles led 8-6 at the break. Whatever was said at half-time worked. Kelma Tuilagi crossed in the 42nd to nudge the Eels back in front, Joey Walsh answered two minutes later to put the Sea Eagles up 12-10, and Isaiah Iongi levelled it again at 14-14 in the 52nd. From there it went the Eels' way: Jonah Pezet scored in the 70th to make it 20-14, then slotted a field goal in the 79th to close it out at 23-14.

The stat sheet explains why the Eels were the ones still finding answers late. They completed at 76 percent against the Sea Eagles' 65, coughed the ball up 14 times to 17, and held 53 percent of possession. That's the gap between a side that kept the ball long enough to find the seams and one that kept handing it back.

And find the seams they did. Six line breaks to five, 45 tackle breaks to 31, 13 offloads to 10. On paper the Eels went in as the weaker unit across the park, rated behind in forwards, backs, halves and hooker. On the field they played like the sharper attacking side for long stretches.

Defensively it was just as lopsided. The Eels tackled at 86.9 percent effective and missed only 31, while the Sea Eagles missed 45. That gap in the middle is a fair chunk of why a tight first half turned into a comfortable second.

The Sea Eagles weren't without their moments. They out-kicked the Eels for territory, 641 metres to 548, and shaded the post-contact numbers, 506 to 502. Hopoate and Walsh both scored and both looked dangerous doing it. But territory and go-forward count for less when the other side is holding the ball and completing at 76 percent.

Pre-match, the model had this one wrong. The Sea Eagles were rated 1600 to the Eels' 1335, tipped to win by 8.7 points with a 70 percent chance, backed by form that had them winning three of their last five to the Eels' one. What actually happened was an Eels win by nine, a result that flipped both the favourite and the margin. Alphr's model finished 3 from 17 on this match, though it did get the total right, tipping the under on 50.5.

Form lines and ratings pointed one way for four days of build-up. Eighty minutes at CommBank Stadium said something else entirely. The Eels controlled the footy, cut down their errors and let the Sea Eagles's ambition with ball in hand do the rest of the work for them.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 6 | 17 | 23 |
| Sea Eagles | 8 | 6 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **76%** | Completion rate | 65% |
| **1,675** | Run metres | 1,613 |
| 502 | Post-contact metres | **506** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **45** | Tackle breaks | 31 |
| **13** | Offloads | 10 |
| **86.9%** | Effective tackle % | 84.4% |
| **31** | Missed tackles | 45 |
| **14** | Errors | 17 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 548 | Kick metres | **641** |

**Model Report Card**

Eels defied the model's 70% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.7 but the actual margin was 9 points. Eels trailed 6–8 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 23–14. The model went 3/17 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (324 career games). The combined score of 37 points was 6 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Eels bucked the trend, Sea Eagles historically win 55% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 25' Try — Ronald Volkman (Eels) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 35' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 6-6 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 42' Try — Kelma Tuilagi (Eels) — 10-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 44' Try — Joey Walsh (Sea Eagles) — 10-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 52' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 14-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 70' Try — Jonah Pezet (Eels) — 20-14 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 79' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Jonah Pezet (Eels) — 23-14 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.37 (edge +0.3%) — model probability 69.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 9 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 70% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 265 ELO points clear, 1600 to 1335. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Eels.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 8.7, with the two sides combining for about 48. Sea Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Eels have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Eels took the most recent meeting 23-14 in 2026 Round 18.

On the ladder it's Eels 15th against Sea Eagles 6th.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Eels $3.13 and Sea Eagles $1.37, with the line at Eels +8.5 and the total at 50.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 17.6 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 6 · Sea Eagles 4 |
| Last meeting | Eels 23-14 |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 15th · Sea Eagles 6th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Market | Eels $3.13 · Sea Eagles $1.37 |
| Line | Eels +8.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 17.6 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Grant Atkins** — 324 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 16W–26L | 38% |
| Sea Eagles | 21W–17L | 55% |

Avg total: 43.3 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Sea Eagles have won 21 of 38 games (55%), significantly stronger than Eels's 16 from 42 (38%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Sea Eagles get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Eels's -0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 13.8pts | Avg Score | 20.8pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 13.8pts |
| -10.2pts | Avg Margin | 7.0pts |
| 1590.2m | Run Metres | 1661.2m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 334.6 | Tackles | 324.2 |
| 14.4 | Errors | 10.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | R11 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 W · R17 L | 13.8 |
| Sea Eagles | R12 W · R13 L · R14 W · R16 L · R17 W | 20.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Sea Eagles | 33 – 18 | Eels |
| 2025 | R12 | Eels | 30 – 10 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R4 | Sea Eagles | 26 – 12 | Eels |
| 2024 | R8 | Sea Eagles | 32 – 18 | Eels |
| 2024 | R3 | Eels | 28 – 24 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.8 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 4th there (1.27 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Hopoate, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.87/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.67/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.8/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 2.07/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.73/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.93/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 11th) | 1.33/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 15 | 8 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 144m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.1% | 84.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 41 | 45 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 693m/g | 759m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.1/g | 14.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.4% | 76.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 18 | 15 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 472m/g | 565m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 10.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 90.7% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.22) +5% · 2nd Rows 0.46/g (lg 0.47) -2%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.09) +78% · Centres 1.06/g (lg 0.72) +47% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.13) +46%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/15g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 25% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 3/10g | 32% | — | — |
| 3 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 4/14g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 15/37g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 19% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/16g | 20/28g | 48% | — | — |
| 6 | Ronald Volkman | 5/8 | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 19% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 7 | Jonah Pezet | HB | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/5g | 18% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | HK | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 5/16g | 26% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/25g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 3 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 3/26g | 16% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/16g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/11g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 3 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 4/25g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Tuivaiti | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Teancum Brown | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 7/15g | 6/9g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 8 in 14g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·3·0·1·2·0·1) | 4/9g | 4/7g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Clayton Faulalo | CE | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 6 in 14g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 14/15g | 8/11g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 12 in 14g | 10/10g (1·2·1·1·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 4/3g | 3/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.58 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| 6 | Joey Walsh | 5/8 | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 4 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Corey Waddell | 2R | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 1/13g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 30% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Josh Feledy | INT | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/30g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Simione Laiafi | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1335 · Sea Eagles 1600 · ELO difference: 265 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 831 | 1081 | Sea Eagles +251 |
| Backs | 824 | 1127 | Sea Eagles +303 |
| Halves | 812 | 1086 | Sea Eagles +275 |
| Hooker | 827 | 1109 | Sea Eagles +282 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-05 05:54 UTC (latest tip update)