# Dragons v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 18 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 24 – 10 Wests Tigers

_Dragons breathe fire on Wests Tigers._

Half time: 6 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 41% / Wests Tigers 59% · St George Venues Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah · Sat, 04 July, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (20' Tipped ⚡), Valentine Holmes (69' Tipped ⚡), Valentine Holmes (72' Tipped ⚡), Mathew Feagai (77' Tipped ⚡) · Wests Tigers: Adam Doueihi (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Adam Doueihi (48' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 59% | Lost |
| Dragons | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.8 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 18 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 1 July 2026, 08:08 am · Last updated: 4 July 2026, 07:22 pm_

Dragons 24–10 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 18 at St George Venues Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eight minutes shy of the hour, Wests Tigers were up 8-6 and looking every bit the side the ratings said they'd be. Then Valentine Holmes happened twice in the space of three minutes, at the 68th and 71st, and the Dragons turned a two-point deficit into a ten-point buffer before Mathew Feagai piled on at 76 to make it a rout. That's the whole match, really: one team level or in front for most of the night, then a burst nobody saw coming that put it out of reach.

Dragons won 24-10 at St George Venues Jubilee Stadium, having led just 6-4 at the break. The shape of the contest was set early. Clinton Gutherson was sin binned in just the 2nd minute for his own side, and the Dragons had to play the rest of that period a man down. Adam Doueihi got Wests Tigers moving in the 8th, and Tyrell Sloan hit back at 19 to level it at 4-4 before the Dragons nudged ahead by half-time. Doueihi's second try in the 47th put Wests Tigers back in front, 8-6, and that's roughly where the game sat until the home side found another gear.

The stat sheet doesn't scream dominance from the Dragons, and that's the point. Wests Tigers had more of the footy, 52% to 48%, completed better at 76% to 71%, and out-gained them on the ground, 1,808 running metres to 1,736. By raw volume, this should have been a Wests Tigers night. It wasn't, because the Dragons did more with less: five line breaks to two, 28 tackle breaks to 18, and 11 offloads to just three.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 6 | 18 | 24 |
| Wests Tigers | 4 | 6 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 71% | Completion rate | **76%** |
| 1,736 | Run metres | **1,808** |
| 623 | Post-contact metres | **644** |
| **5** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **28** | Tackle breaks | 18 |
| **11** | Offloads | 3 |
| **94.5%** | Effective tackle % | 88.3% |
| **18** | Missed tackles | 28 |
| 17 | Errors | **14** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 408 | Kick metres | **501** |

**Model Report Card**

Dragons defied the model's 59% prediction for Wests Tigers, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.8 but the actual margin was 14 points. Dragons led 6–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 6/17 on this match. Dragons covered the 5.5-point line. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (111 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 12 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Sin Bin — Clinton Gutherson (Dragons) — 0-0 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 8' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 19' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 47' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 6-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 68' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 10-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 71' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 76' Try — Mathew Feagai (Dragons) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.55 (edge -2.2%) — model probability 59.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 3 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wests Tigers are the call at 59%, but Dragons stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wests Tigers sit 186 ELO points clear, 1385 to 1199. Form leans Wests Tigers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Dragons.

Wests Tigers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 2.8, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Wests Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dragons have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Dragons took the most recent meeting 24-22 in 2026 Round 24.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 3-9 at home this year. Wests Tigers are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Dragons 17th against Wests Tigers 11th.

The market has Wests Tigers favourites, Dragons $2.46 and Wests Tigers $1.55, with the line at Dragons +5.5 and the total at 48.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 15.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.8 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 7 · Wests Tigers 3 |
| Last meeting | Dragons 24-22 |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons at home | 3-9 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 17th · Wests Tigers 11th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Wests Tigers 0% |
| Market | Dragons $2.46 · Wests Tigers $1.55 |
| Line | Dragons +5.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 15.0 pens/g · 0.8 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Todd Smith** — 111 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 2W–11L | 15% |
| Wests Tigers | 1W–7L | 13% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Dragons 2W–11L (15%) and Wests Tigers 1W–7L (13%). Games average 46.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Dragons get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Wests Tigers's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 27.2pts | Avg Conceded | 32.0pts |
| -9.2pts | Avg Margin | -14.8pts |
| 1681.0m | Run Metres | 1534.0m |
| 2.2 | Line Breaks | 2.6 |
| 362.2 | Tackles | 374.8 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | R12 L · R13 W · R14 L · R16 L · R17 L | 18.0 |
| Wests Tigers | R13 W · R14 L · R15 W · R16 L · R17 L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dragons lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Wests Tigers | 22 – 24 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R9 | Wests Tigers | 34 – 28 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R14 | Dragons | 56 – 14 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R6 | Wests Tigers | 12 – 24 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R21 | Dragons | 18 – 14 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 11th-ranked left edge attack (1.27 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 12th there (1.53 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Skelton, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.27/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.2/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.53/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 0.47/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 8th) | 1.53/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.07/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.67/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.47/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 11 | 12 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 155m/g | 228m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 84.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 56 | 31 · 43 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 661m/g | 693m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.2/g | 14.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 73.3% | 75.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 12 | 12 · 15 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 554m/g | 527m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.8/g | 11.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.2% | 91.9% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.24/g (lg 0.16) +50% · Fullbacks 0.6/g (lg 0.41) +46% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.27) +37%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.22) +50% · Fullbacks 0.59/g (lg 0.41) +44% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.47) +34%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at St George Venues Jubilee Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/18g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Setu Tu | WG | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 65% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Mathew Feagai | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 6 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 13/14g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' 72' |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | 5/8 | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 27% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Emre Guler | RES | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (1·1·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 4 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 3 | Heamasi Makasini | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 9% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jock Madden | 5/8 | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Doueihi | HB | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 32% | 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 18% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 48' |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Tony Sukkar | 2R | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Sione Fainu | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Josese Lanyon | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Bunty Afoa | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Latu Fainu | RES | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1199 · Wests Tigers 1385 · ELO difference: 186 in favour of Wests Tigers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 719 | 852 | Wests Tigers +133 |
| Backs | 696 | 884 | Wests Tigers +187 |
| Halves | 699 | 875 | Wests Tigers +176 |
| Hooker | 686 | 899 | Wests Tigers +213 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dragons |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-04 09:22 UTC (latest tip update)