# Sea Eagles v Storm — NRL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 30 – 4 Storm

_Sea Eagles put Storm to the sword._

Half time: 24 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 68% / Storm 32% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sat, 27 June, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Haumole Olakau'atu (6' 1st), Haumole Olakau'atu (11' 1st), Jason Saab (30' Tipped ⚡), Tolutau Koula (34' Tipped ⚡), Ben Trbojevic (67') · Storm: Will Warbrick (50' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 68% | Won |
| Storm | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.7 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sea Eagles vs Storm Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 17, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 June 2026, 07:59 pm · Last updated: 27 June 2026, 09:22 pm_

Sea Eagles 30–4 Storm in NRL Round 17 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model backed the Sea Eagles at 68% and had them winning by 8.7, with a combined total of 44. The Sea Eagles won by 26, and the total finished at 34. Get the winner right, miss the shape of the game by a mile. That's roughly how this one played out for the model, and roughly how it played out for Storm.

The scoreline was 30-4, built almost entirely inside the first 34 minutes. Haumole Olakau'atu opened it in the 5th, then again in the 10th, and by the half the Sea Eagles led 24-0 without Storm troubling the board once. Jason Saab and Tolutau Koula added tries either side of the half-hour mark. Whatever Storm's last five games suggested about this team, none of it showed up in that first half.

And that's the strange part. Storm arrived with the better recent form, four wins from five against the Sea Eagles' three, a healthier average margin at plus-10.8, more metres and fewer errors per game across that stretch. On paper it should have been closer than 8.7. Instead the Sea Eagles' positional edges, ahead in forwards, backs, halves and hooker, showed up exactly where you'd expect: in field position and in who was doing the ball-playing when it counted.

Storm did get on the board through Will Warbrick in the 49th, making it 24-4 and at least giving the second half a pulse. Joey Walsh went to the bin for the Sea Eagles seven minutes later, which should have been Storm's window. They didn't take it. Ben Trbojevic finished the contest in the 67th, and Trent Toelau's sin bin five minutes after that was just a footnote on a game already decided.

The stat sheet backs up what the clock showed. The Sea Eagles ran 59% of the possession and completed at 95% to Storm's 78%, which is the sort of gap that lets one side dictate territory all day. They kicked for 932 metres against 529, six line breaks to three, and ground out 760 post-contact metres to 526. Storm missed 37 tackles to the Sea Eagles' 25, and that's before you factor in five penalties conceded against one.

Storm weren't hopeless everywhere. They actually posted the better effective tackle percentage, 90.0% to 86.4%, and out-offloaded the Sea Eagles 11 to 6, hinting at some ambition when they did have the ball. Problem was they didn't have it often enough, and when they did, nine errors to the Sea Eagles' five kept undoing the work.

So the model's read on the winner held up fine. The margin call is the one to file away: an 8.7-point expectation against a 26-point beating, and a 6/17 mark on the match overall shows it wasn't just the headline number that went astray. The under 48.5 landed, and the Sea Eagles covering 7.5 was never in doubt after the first quarter. Everything else about this one was written by half-time, Storm just hadn't been told yet.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 24 | 6 | 30 |
| Storm | 0 | 4 | 4 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| **59%** | Possession | 41% |
| **95%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **1,876** | Run metres | 1,511 |
| **760** | Post-contact metres | 526 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| 6 | Offloads | **11** |
| 86.4% | Effective tackle % | **90.0%** |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| **5** | Errors | 9 |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **932** | Kick metres | 529 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.7 but the actual margin was 26 points. The model went 6/17 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 7.5-point line. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (389 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 10 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Sea Eagles bucked the trend, Storm historically win 62% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 10' Try — Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 29' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 34' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 49' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 24-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 56' Sin Bin — Joey Walsh (Sea Eagles) — 24-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 67' Try — Ben Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 30-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 72' Sin Bin — Trent Toelau (Storm) — 30-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.48 (edge +3.9%) — model probability 68.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 9 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 68% to see off Storm. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 35 ELO points clear, 1565 to 1529. Form leans Storm's way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Sea Eagles.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 8.7, with the two sides combining for about 44. Sea Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 6th against Storm 11th.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Sea Eagles $1.48 and Storm $2.66, with the line at Sea Eagles -7.5 and the total at 48.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 13.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 5 · Storm 5 |
| Last meeting | Storm 42-20 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 6-6 this season |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 6th · Storm 11th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Storm 0% |
| Market | Sea Eagles $1.48 · Storm $2.66 |
| Line | Sea Eagles -7.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 13.2 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Ashley Klein** — 389 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 19W–20L | 49% |
| Storm | 41W–25L | 62% |

Avg total: 43.6 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Storm hold a 13-point edge: 41W–25L (62%) vs Sea Eagles's 19W–20L (49%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 29.2pts |
| 16.6pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| 7.4pts | Avg Margin | 10.8pts |
| 1738.0m | Run Metres | 1800.8m |
| 6.4 | Line Breaks | 6.0 |
| 327.6 | Tackles | 317.4 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | R11 W · R12 W · R13 L · R14 W · R16 L | 24.0 |
| Storm | R11 W · R12 L · R13 W · R14 W · R16 W | 29.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Storm | 42 – 20 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R20 | Storm | 16 – 18 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R5 | Sea Eagles | 24 – 48 | Storm |
| 2024 | R12 | Sea Eagles | 26 – 20 | Storm |
| 2023 | R17 | Storm | 24 – 6 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.64 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 13th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Hopoate, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.2 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 5th there (1.36 conceded/game). Key man: Faalogo, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.64/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.87/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.86/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2.2/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.21/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.47/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 6 | 14 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 157m/g | 232m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.3% | 84.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 22 | 43 · 42 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 759m/g | 700m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.1/g | 17.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.7% | 74.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 11 | 10 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 561m/g | 503m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.4/g | 10.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.8% | 91.7% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.38/g (lg 1.28) +8% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.72) -4% · 2nd Rows 0.38/g (lg 0.47) -19%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.22) +5% · 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.47) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | 6 in 7g | 8/10g (2·0·0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 2/12g | 44/63g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 69% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 7 in 13g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·0·1·2·0) | 7/7g | 25/45g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 80% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 5/5g | 25/41g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' |
| 4 | Josh Feledy | CE | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 9% | — | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 12 in 13g | 12/10g (2·1·2·1·1·1·1·0·1·2) | 0/3g | 13/24g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.65 AI 84% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 8/36g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 3/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/54g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/24g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 6/43g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 20/45g | 28% | — | 🏉 6' 11' |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 11/41g | 26% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 18/103g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Joey Walsh | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/27g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Simione Laiafi | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Aaron Schoupp | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 13 in 15g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 48% | — | — |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 14 in 15g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·1·3) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.83 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 50' |
| 4 | Joe Chan | CE | 2 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 5 | Moses Leo | WG | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 4/15g | 1/6g | 20% | 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tyran Wishart | HB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Cooper Clarke | 2R | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Ativalu Lisati | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 15 | Jack Hetherington | Replacement | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Josiah Pahulu | RES | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| 17 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1565 · Storm 1529 · ELO difference: 35 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1086 | 1001 | Sea Eagles +85 |
| Backs | 1088 | 1016 | Sea Eagles +72 |
| Halves | 1058 | 1032 | Sea Eagles +27 |
| Hooker | 1037 | 1010 | Sea Eagles +27 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-27 11:22 UTC (latest tip update)