# Raiders v Dragons — NRL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 24 – 16 Dragons

_Raiders roar back to ransack Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 77% / Dragons 23% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sun, 28 June, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Hudson Young (20'), Xavier Savage (45' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Savage (56' Tipped ⚡), Tom Starling (75') · Dragons: Tyrell Sloan (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Setu Tu (30' Tipped ⚡), Tyrell Sloan (71' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 77% | Won |
| Dragons | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.1 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 June 2026, 07:59 pm · Last updated: 28 June 2026, 03:52 pm_

Raiders 24–16 Dragons in NRL Round 17 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Raiders edged out the Dragons 24–16 at GIO Stadium, but it wasn't a straightforward win. Tyrell Sloan got the Dragons on the board early, scoring within eight minutes. By half-time, the Dragons led 10–6, putting the Raiders on the back foot. However, the Raiders turned the tables in the second half, with Xavier Savage scoring twice to shift the momentum.

The Raiders' forwards were a dominant force, racking up 1,875 run metres compared to the Dragons' 1,603. They also managed 584 post-contact metres, showcasing their physicality. This strength was complemented by 11 offloads, allowing them to keep the ball moving and apply pressure. The Dragons, despite breaking the line twice to the Raiders' once, couldn't match this physicality.

In terms of possession, the Raiders held a slight edge with 52%, which helped them maintain control. Their halves and hooker were rated higher going into the match, and it showed in their organised play. The Dragons, however, had the upper hand in kicking, with 741 kick metres compared to the Raiders' 555. This territorial advantage wasn't enough to secure the win.

Discipline was a mixed bag. The Dragons conceded only two penalties, showing composure under pressure. Yet, the Raiders found ways to capitalise on their opportunities, despite conceding four penalties themselves. Missed tackles were a problem for the Dragons, with 31 compared to the Raiders' 26, which proved costly as the game wore on.

Xavier Savage was instrumental in the Raiders' second-half comeback, scoring twice to level and then take the lead. Tom Starling sealed the deal with a try in the 75th minute. The Dragons couldn't withstand the pressure, and their defence faltered at crucial moments.

Alphr's model had predicted a Raiders win with 77% confidence, expecting a 13.1-point margin. The actual eight-point margin was close, and the predicted total score of 44 was just four points off the final 40. The model's accuracy was decent, getting six out of 17 calls right for this match.

In the end, the Raiders' second-half surge was decisive. They chased down the Dragons and secured the win. The numbers backed up the result, with the Raiders' physicality and possession play proving too much for the Dragons to handle. That's how the game unfolded.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 6 | 18 | 24 |
| Dragons | 10 | 6 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 70% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| **1,875** | Run metres | 1,603 |
| **584** | Post-contact metres | 518 |
| 1 | Line breaks | **2** |
| **31** | Tackle breaks | 26 |
| **11** | Offloads | 6 |
| **89.6%** | Effective tackle % | 88.3% |
| **26** | Missed tackles | 31 |
| 16 | Errors | 16 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| 555 | Kick metres | **741** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 77% probability. The predicted margin of 13.1 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. Raiders trailed 6–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 24–16. The model went 6/17 on this match. The under 52.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (77 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 42. Raiders bucked the trend, Dragons historically win 46% of games under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski, but couldn't convert that edge today. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 13.3 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 71% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 19' Try — Hudson Young (Raiders) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 30' Try — Setu Tu (Dragons) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 45' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 10-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 55' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 70' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 18-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 75' Try — Tom Starling (Raiders) — 22-16 · win-prob swing +19 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.34 (edge +6.0%) — model probability 77.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 13 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Raiders here: 77% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 163 ELO points clear, 1377 to 1214.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Raiders by 13.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Raiders to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Raiders have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 24-16 in 2026 Round 17.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 16th against Dragons 17th.

The market has Raiders favourites, Raiders $1.34 and Dragons $3.30, with the line at Raiders -10.5 and the total at 52.5.

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski has the whistle: 16.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 7 · Dragons 3 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 24-16 |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders at home | 5-7 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 16th · Dragons 17th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 0% · Dragons 0% |
| Market | Raiders $1.34 · Dragons $3.30 |
| Line | Raiders -10.5 · total 52.5 |
| Referee | Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski · 16.2 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dragons

**Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski** — 77 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 2W–5L | 29% |
| Dragons | 6W–7L | 46% |

Avg total: 41.7 pts · Home win %: 45% · Home bias: Leans away

When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Dragons have won 6 of 13 games (46%), significantly stronger than Raiders's 2 from 7 (29%). Small sample (7 games for Raiders).

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 13.3 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7 against away. Dragons get a +-0.5 penalty advantage under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski vs Raiders's -1.1. 71% of his 38 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 16.0pts |
| 25.0pts | Avg Conceded | 28.0pts |
| -9.0pts | Avg Margin | -12.0pts |
| 1604.0m | Run Metres | 1708.4m |
| 3.4 | Line Breaks | 2.4 |
| 346.0 | Tackles | 374.4 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | R12 L · R13 W · R14 L · R15 L · R16 L | 16.0 |
| Dragons | R11 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 L · R16 L | 16.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R22 | Dragons | 18 – 12 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R18 | Raiders | 28 – 24 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R27 | Dragons | 24 – 26 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R19 | Dragons | 26 – 36 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R7 | Raiders | 20 – 14 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 11th-ranked right edge attack (1.2 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (1.79 conceded/game). Key man: Tamale, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 12th-ranked left edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 6th there (1.27 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.8/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.21/g (att 12th) · concedes 2.14/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.27/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.5/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 1.2/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.47/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.64/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.79/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 16 | 3 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 184m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.2% | 88% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 38 | 24 · 54 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 748m/g | 661m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.7/g | 13.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.8% | 73.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 13 | 6 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 528m/g | 550m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.22) +55% · Fullbacks 0.6/g (lg 0.41) +46% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.47) +34%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Centres 0.94/g (lg 0.72) +31% · Five-Eighths 0.32/g (lg 0.27) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 8 in 15g | 6/10g (2·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 15/32g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 52% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 7 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 8/15g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.69 AI 58% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 0/4g | 5/23g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/9g | 19/56g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 20/35g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.54 AI 58% ✓ Scored | 🏉 45' 56' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 12/28g | 38% | — | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 6/53g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | HK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/17g | 7% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 10/102g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/9g | 25/68g | 26% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/23g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Jayden Brailey | LK | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Tom Starling | INT | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 7/65g | 12% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 15 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/40g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/31g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Sebastian Kris | INT | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 3/8g | 24/56g | 28% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/9g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Setu Tu | WG | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 59% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| 3 | Mathew Feagai | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 3/7g | 1/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 36% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 6 in 14g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 11/14g | 7/6g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 2/2g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 71' |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | 5/8 | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 1/5g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Emre Guler | INT | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/36g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1377 · Dragons 1214 · ELO difference: 163 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 864 | 716 | Raiders +148 |
| Backs | 844 | 699 | Raiders +145 |
| Halves | 866 | 723 | Raiders +142 |
| Hooker | 880 | 715 | Raiders +164 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dragons |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Raiders predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-28 05:52 UTC (latest tip update)