# Eels v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 12 – 32 Rabbitohs

_Rabbitohs scamper past Eels._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 35% / Rabbitohs 65% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Thu, 25 June, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Brian Kelly (17' Tipped ⚡), Tallyn Da Silva (42') · Rabbitohs: Cody Walker (5' 1st), Euan Aitken (13'), Edward Kosi (47'), Tallis Duncan (52' Tipped ⚡), Cody Walker (63' 1st), Tallis Duncan (75' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 65% | Won |
| Eels | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.7 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Parramatta Eels vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 June 2026, 07:59 pm · Last updated: 25 June 2026, 09:41 pm_

Eels 12–32 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 17 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Eels were within two points of it, right when it mattered most. Tallyn Da Silva crossed in the 41st minute to make it 10-12, and for a moment CommBank Stadium looked like it might have a contest on its hands. Then South Sydney reeled off four unanswered tries and the margin blew out to 20. Final score: Rabbitohs 32, Eels 12.

Go back to the start and the pattern was already set. Cody Walker opened the scoring in the fourth minute, Euan Aitken added another by the 13th, and the Eels were already chasing a 10-point deficit before they'd found their feet. Brian Kelly's try on 17 minutes got them within striking distance at 4-12, and Da Silva's effort just before the break trimmed it further. That was the high point. Souths led 12-6 at half-time and never looked like giving it back.

The second half was one-way traffic. Edward Kosi in the 47th, Tallis Duncan twice either side of the 60-minute mark, and Walker's second on 62 minutes turned a manageable game into a rout. Duncan's second, in the 75th, was just the final word on a night the Eels had no answer for.

The stat sheet tells you why. Rabbitohs edged possession 52% to 48% but did far more with it, completing at 76% against the Eels' 65%. Eighteen errors from Parramatta compared to just 12 from Souths meant the home side kept handing back field position it couldn't afford to lose. Run metres went 1,849 to 1,587 in the visitors' favour, post-contact metres 592 to 513, and Souths broke the line six times to the Eels' three. Forty tackle breaks to 24 says the Rabbitohs forwards were doing exactly what their rating suggested they would.

That rating gap was there before kick-off and it showed up everywhere. Souths went in rated higher across the board, forwards 1030 to 837, halves 1025 to 857, hooker 1014 to 870, and on this performance every one of those edges cashed out. The Eels' defence missed 40 tackles to the Rabbitohs' 24, and against a pack that keeps finding metres after contact, that gap compounds fast.

Form lines had both sides at two wins from their last five, but Souths' average margin of plus-3.6 against the Eels' minus-5.6 was the more honest signal. Kick metres told a similar story, 517 to 417, with the Rabbitohs happy to play field position and let their forwards do the rest.

Alphr's model backed Rabbitohs at 65% and got the result right. It undercooked the gap badly though, tipping a 4.7-point win that turned into 20. The total was closer to the mark, 47 predicted against 44 actual, and the under 48.5 call landed. Four from seventeen on the night overall. The winner was never really in doubt on the data, just how far it would run away.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Rabbitohs | 12 | 20 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 65% | Completion rate | **76%** |
| 1,587 | Run metres | **1,849** |
| 513 | Post-contact metres | **592** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **40** |
| **12** | Offloads | 9 |
| 85.8% | Effective tackle % | **86.8%** |
| 40 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| 18 | Errors | **12** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 417 | Kick metres | **517** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.7 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 44, within 3 points. Rabbitohs led 6–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (372 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 58% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Rabbitohs prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Cody Walker (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 13' Try — Euan Aitken (Rabbitohs) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 17' Try — Brian Kelly (Eels) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 41' Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Eels) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 47' Try — Edward Kosi (Rabbitohs) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 51' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 12-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 62' Try — Cody Walker (Rabbitohs) — 12-26 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 75' Try — Tallis Duncan (Rabbitohs) — 12-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.54 (edge +2.9%) — model probability 64.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 5 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Rabbitohs here: 65% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Rabbitohs sit 134 ELO points clear, 1493 to 1359.

Rabbitohs own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 4.7, with the two sides combining for about 47. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Rabbitohs to win, not to win big.

Rabbitohs have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Rabbitohs took the most recent meeting 28-24 in 2026 Round 23.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Eels 14th against Rabbitohs 7th.

The market has Rabbitohs favourites, Eels $2.49 and Rabbitohs $1.54, with the line at Eels +6.5 and the total at 48.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 14.5 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 1 · Rabbitohs 9 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 28-24 |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 14th · Rabbitohs 7th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Rabbitohs 100% |
| Market | Eels $2.49 · Rabbitohs $1.54 |
| Line | Eels +6.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 14.5 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Rabbitohs

**Gerard Sutton** — 372 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 14W–24L | 37% |
| Rabbitohs | 33W–24L | 58% |

Avg total: 41.8 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Rabbitohs have won 33 of 57 games (58%), significantly stronger than Eels's 14 from 38 (37%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Eels's +0.3. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.6pts |
| -5.6pts | Avg Margin | 3.6pts |
| 1686.4m | Run Metres | 1706.0m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 328.0 | Tackles | 324.4 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | R10 W · R11 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 W | 18.0 |
| Rabbitohs | R10 W · R11 L · R12 L · R14 L · R15 W | 25.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Rabbitohs | 28 – 24 | Eels |
| 2025 | R24 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 16 | Eels |
| 2024 | R18 | Eels | 16 – 32 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R12 | Rabbitohs | 42 – 26 | Eels |
| 2023 | R12 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 36 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 7th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.15 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.93 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 19 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.93/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.93/g (def 16th (weak)) | 2.15/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.46/g (def 11th) |
| Middle | 1.86/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 2.07/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.31/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 0.93/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 10th) | 1.77/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 13 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 142m/g | 153m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.5/g | 2.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.8% | 84% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 38 | 46 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 2/g |
| Run Metres | 692m/g | 722m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.1/g | 16.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 4.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.5% | 77.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 17 | 13 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 476m/g | 586m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 89.8% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.46/g (lg 0.27) +70% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Fullbacks 0.51/g (lg 0.42) +21%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Centres 1.05/g (lg 0.72) +46% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/14g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 26% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 2/9g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| 3 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/13g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 15/36g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 19% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 14/15g | 20/27g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ronald Volkman | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/5g | 19% | — | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 20/67g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Luca Moretti | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/25g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 5 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 4/15g | 24% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 10 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/24g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 3/25g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 4/15g | 19% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 4/24g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Tuivaiti | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Teancum Brown | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Harrison Edwards | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 16% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 19 in 12g | 16/10g (1·1·1·1·2·2·3·1·0·4) | 18/16g | 9/14g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.55 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 30% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Latrell Siegwalt | CE | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 4 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/3g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' 75' |
| 5 | Edward Kosi | WG | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 34% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/14g | 7/13g | 22% | — | 🏉 5' 63' |
| 7 | Ashton Ward | HB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/14g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 4/10g | 2/6g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/9g | 20% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 2/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Jamie Humphreys | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 15% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 5% | — | — |
| 17 | John Radel | INT | 1 in 1g | 1/1g (1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 100% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1359 · Rabbitohs 1493 · ELO difference: 134 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 837 | 1030 | Rabbitohs +193 |
| Backs | 821 | 979 | Rabbitohs +158 |
| Halves | 857 | 1025 | Rabbitohs +169 |
| Hooker | 870 | 1014 | Rabbitohs +144 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-25 11:41 UTC (latest tip update)