# Dolphins v Warriors — NRL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 26 – 24 Warriors

_Dolphins outswim Warriors in a tight one._

Half time: 16 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 65% / Warriors 35% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 27 June, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Selwyn Cobbo (4' 1st Tipped 🎯), Herbie Farnworth (24' Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (38' Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (50' Tipped ⚡), Selwyn Cobbo (77' 1st Tipped 🎯) · Warriors: Jacob Laban (8'), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (18' Tipped ⚡), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (61' Tipped ⚡), Sam Healey (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 65% | Won |
| Warriors | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 June 2026, 07:59 pm · Last updated: 27 June 2026, 04:58 pm_

Dolphins 26–24 Warriors in NRL Round 17 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dolphins 26, Warriors 24. That was the score at Suncorp Stadium. But the numbers reveal a tighter tussle than the score alone suggests. The Warriors edged out possession at 51% and did better with ball control, completing 80% of their sets compared to the Dolphins’ 77%. Yet, the Dolphins’ sharper attack and defensive effort made the difference.

Selwyn Cobbo was a standout for the Dolphins, scoring twice, including the crucial try in the 77th minute. Herbie Farnworth and Jamayne Isaako, who also crossed twice, rounded out the Dolphins' scoring. On the other side, the Warriors had their moments, with Jacob Laban, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, and Sam Healey all putting points on the board.

The Dolphins made their presence known in the physical exchanges. They broke 48 tackles compared to the Warriors’ 29. Their ability to breach the Warriors’ line was also a factor, with eight line breaks to the Warriors’ five. While the Warriors missed 50 tackles, the Dolphins were more secure, missing only 30. That spelled trouble for the Warriors, who struggled to contain the opposition's aggressive advances.

Penalties didn't sway the match much, with the Warriors conceding two and the Dolphins none. In terms of attack through the boot, the Warriors kicked for 719 metres, slightly outdoing the Dolphins’ 658. Small margins, but in a tight game, every metre mattered.

The model had the Dolphins winning by a margin of 7.9 points. The actual 2-point result was a minor miss, but it nailed the 1-12 margin band call. The predicted total was 46, just 4 shy of the actual 50, landing the under 50.5 total call correctly. The game’s dynamics played out largely as expected, albeit with a closer result.

Looking at the forward battle, the Dolphins had a pre-match rating edge here, and they used it. The line breaks and tackle busts were evidence of their forward pack's strength, despite a few more errors compared to the Warriors.

The Warriors, on the other hand, had their moments, especially between the 60th and 74th minutes when Nicoll-Klokstad and Healey crossed to momentarily take the lead. But those missed tackles? Costly.

In the end, it was the Dolphins’ ability to capitalise on breaks and tackle busts that counted. They made the most of their opportunities in an often finely-balanced contest. A tight but deserved win, in a game where the Warriors had their chances but couldn't quite turn possession into points.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 16 | 10 | 26 |
| Warriors | 12 | 12 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 77% | Completion rate | **80%** |
| **1,647** | Run metres | 1,596 |
| 479 | Post-contact metres | **487** |
| **8** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **48** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **8** | Offloads | 6 |
| **90.3%** | Effective tackle % | 85.4% |
| **30** | Missed tackles | 50 |
| 14 | Errors | **12** |
| **0** | Penalties conceded | 2 |
| 658 | Kick metres | **719** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 65% probability. The predicted margin of 7.9 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 50, within 4 points. The model went 9/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (298 career games). The combined score of 50 points was 7 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Dolphins bucked the trend, Warriors historically win 48% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Dolphins's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 7' Try — Jacob Laban (Warriors) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 17' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 4-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 23' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 8-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 38' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 14-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 49' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 20-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 60' Try — Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) — 20-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 74' Try — Sam Healey (Warriors) — 20-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 77' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 24-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.45 (edge -0.3%) — model probability 65.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 8 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dolphins here: 65% to see off Warriors. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 39 ELO points clear, 1652 to 1613. Form leans Dolphins' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Warriors.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 7.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. Dolphins to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Dolphins have won 5 of the last 9 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 26-16 in 2026 Round 28.

Dolphins have won 8 straight. Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 3rd against Warriors 2nd.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dolphins $1.45 and Warriors $2.78, with the line at Dolphins -6.5 and the total at 50.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 16.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Dolphins 5 · Warriors 4 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 26-16 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWW · 110 for, 64 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-4 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 3rd · Warriors 2nd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Dolphins $1.45 · Warriors $2.78 |
| Line | Dolphins -6.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 16.0 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Adam Gee** — 298 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 5W–9L | 36% |
| Warriors | 16W–17L | 48% |

Avg total: 42.8 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Warriors hold a 12-point edge: 16W–17L (48%) vs Dolphins's 5W–9L (36%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Warriors get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dolphins's -1.3. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 37.2pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Conceded | 14.8pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Margin | 12.4pts |
| 1928.2m | Run Metres | 1700.2m |
| 7.4 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 348.8 | Tackles | 349.2 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R11 W · R12 W · R14 W · R15 W · R16 W | 37.2 |
| Warriors | R11 W · R12 W · R13 L · R15 L · R16 W | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FW1 | Warriors | 16 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2026 | R8 | Warriors | 20 – 18 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R22 | Warriors | 18 – 20 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R11 | Dolphins | 12 – 16 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R23 | Dolphins | 34 – 32 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.64 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 7th there (1.07 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 7th there (1.07 conceded/game). Key man: Watene-Zelezniak, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.5/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.36/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.71/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.71/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.21/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.64/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 7th) | 1.5/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 5 | 11 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 205m/g | 161m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 86% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 50 · 33 | 42 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 883m/g | 645m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.3/g | 14.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.2% | 78.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 9 | 17 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 513m/g | 595m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 89.2% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.84/g (lg 0.72) +17% · Fullbacks 0.48/g (lg 0.42) +14% · Wingers 1.16/g (lg 1.28) -9%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.16) +13% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.22) +9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 8 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/9g | 28/35g | 58% | — | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 12 in 14g | 9/10g (0·0·2·1·3·0·1·1·0·1) | 9/12g | 37/81g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' 50' |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 4 in 7g | 9/10g (1·4·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 11/22g | 46% | — | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 9/11g | 27/68g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 8 in 11g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·2·1·2) | 0/6g | 32/54g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.56 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 14% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' 77' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/12g | 25/87g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/7g | 5/34g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 4/61g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 5/33g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/22g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 3 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/8g | 8/34g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/20g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Max Plath | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 3/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/21g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Ray Stone | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/33g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Felise Kaufusi | RES | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 2/44g | 6% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 3 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 1/7g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 15 in 14g | 13/10g (3·2·1·1·1·2·2·0·0·1) | 6/6g | 7/18g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.82 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/3g | 30% | 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 3/12g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | WG | 7 in 7g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·4) | 0/4g | 2/11g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/8g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 4 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 3/19g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 53% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/12g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 12 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 11/39g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/15g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 6% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 15 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Marata Niukore | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/14g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1652 · Warriors 1613 · ELO difference: 39 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1160 | 1099 | Dolphins +60 |
| Backs | 1187 | 1087 | Dolphins +100 |
| Halves | 1160 | 1129 | Dolphins +32 |
| Hooker | 1185 | 1118 | Dolphins +66 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-27 06:58 UTC (latest tip update)