# Broncos v Roosters — NRL Round 17 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 18 – 24 Roosters

_Roosters fight back to rule the roost over Broncos._

Half time: 16 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 38% / Roosters 62% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 26 June, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Thomas Duffy (18'), Brendan Piakura (22'), Grant Anderson (37' Tipped ⚡) · Roosters: Billy Smith (6' 1st), Robert Toia (26' Tipped ⚡), Billy Smith (42' 1st), Sam Walker (60')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 62% | Won |
| Broncos | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.3 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 17 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 23 June 2026, 08:04 pm · Last updated: 26 June 2026, 09:53 pm_

Broncos 18–24 Roosters in NRL Round 17 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model predicted the Roosters would edge out the Broncos by 6.3 points, and the match at Suncorp Stadium played out almost exactly as expected. The Roosters secured a 24–18 victory, closely aligning with the model's forecast. While the Broncos managed to cover the 7.5-point spread, the margin and total predictions were spot on.

At half-time, the Broncos led 16–12, hinting at a potential upset against their recent poor form. However, the stats painted a different picture. The Broncos had slightly less possession at 49% and were outperformed in run metres, with the Roosters accumulating 1,729 compared to the Broncos' 1,404. The Roosters' forward pack, rated 1083 against the Broncos' 880, set a solid foundation for their performance.

Despite a strong completion rate of 84% and committing only eight errors to the Roosters' twelve, the Broncos struggled to break through the Roosters' defence, managing just two line breaks compared to the Roosters' six. Billy Smith was instrumental for the Roosters, scoring twice, including the opening try, showcasing the backline's strength rated at 1057 against the Broncos' 899.

The Broncos' kicking game was a highlight, achieving 742 kick metres to the Roosters' 484, which typically aids in gaining territory. However, their defence faltered, missing 34 tackles compared to the Roosters' 27. The Roosters' effective tackle rate of 90.1% was crucial, particularly in stifling the Broncos' attack in the second half.

Post-contact metres were another area where the Roosters excelled, gaining 586 to the Broncos' 499. Sam Walker's try in the 60th minute was pivotal, pushing the Roosters ahead and highlighting their forward pack's superior form. The Roosters maintained composure in a tight contest, controlling the game's pace when it mattered.

The Broncos entered the match with a dismal recent record, having lost their last five games. Their average of 36 points conceded per game was a statistic they couldn't overcome, even with a half-time lead. In contrast, the Roosters came in with two wins and a tighter average margin of -2.6 points, indicating their resilience in close games.

Our model held up well, predicting a Roosters win with a 62% probability. The 1-12 margin band and under 49.5 total points calls were accurate. Ultimately, the Roosters turned the game around in the second half, sticking closely to the model's projections. The Broncos' late efforts weren't enough to alter the outcome, as the numbers dictated the narrative this time.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 16 | 2 | 18 |
| Roosters | 12 | 12 | 24 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| 1,404 | Run metres | **1,729** |
| 499 | Post-contact metres | **586** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 27 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| 7 | Offloads | **11** |
| 86.6% | Effective tackle % | **90.1%** |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **27** |
| **8** | Errors | 12 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **742** | Kick metres | 484 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 62% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Roosters by 6.3 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 42, within 4 points. Roosters trailed 16–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–24. The model went 6/17 on this match. Broncos covered the 7.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (323 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 61% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 17' Try — Thomas Duffy (Broncos) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +10 pts
- 22' Try — Brendan Piakura (Broncos) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 26' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 37' Try — Grant Anderson (Broncos) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 42' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 16-16 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 60' Try — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 16-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.48 (edge -2.0%) — model probability 62.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 6 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 62%, but Broncos stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 214 ELO points clear, 1576 to 1362. Form leans Roosters' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Broncos.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 6.3, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 24-18 in 2026 Round 17.

Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four; Broncos are 2-10 at home this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Broncos 3, Roosters 5.

On the ladder it's Broncos 13th against Roosters 4th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Broncos $2.66 and Roosters $1.48, with the line at Broncos +7.5 and the total at 49.5.

Broncos come in fresher, 15 days between games against 5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 16.4 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 2 · Roosters 8 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 24-18 |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos at home | 2-10 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LLLW · 90 for, 105 against |
| Roosters away | 8-5 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 13th · Roosters 4th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 0% · Roosters 100% |
| Market | Broncos $2.66 · Roosters $1.48 |
| Line | Broncos +7.5 · total 49.5 |
| Rest gap | Broncos 15d · Roosters 5d |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 16.4 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Grant Atkins** — 323 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 23W–26L | 47% |
| Roosters | 35W–22L | 61% |

Avg total: 43.3 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Roosters hold a 14-point edge: 35W–22L (61%) vs Broncos's 23W–26L (47%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 14.2pts | Avg Score | 15.8pts |
| 36.0pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| -21.8pts | Avg Margin | -2.6pts |
| 1534.4m | Run Metres | 1731.2m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 366.8 | Tackles | 374.4 |
| 14.2 | Errors | 14.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | R10 L · R11 L · R13 L · R14 L · R15 L | 14.2 |
| Roosters | R11 L · R13 L · R14 W · R15 L · R16 W | 15.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R9 | Roosters | 38 – 24 | Broncos |
| 2025 | R6 | Broncos | 16 – 26 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R1 | Roosters | 14 – 50 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R9 | Broncos | 18 – 40 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R1 | Roosters | 20 – 10 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 9th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Walsh, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.07 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 3rd there (0.86 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.21/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.57/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.86/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.43/g (att 12th) · concedes 2.07/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.64/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.79/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2.07/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.79/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 13 | 11 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 130m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.7% | 87.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 37 | 44 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 650m/g | 743m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.7/g | 17/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.5% | 80.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 7 | 6 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 546m/g | 548m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.16) +13% · Fullbacks 0.47/g (lg 0.42) +12%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.22/g (lg 0.14) +57% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Centres 0.89/g (lg 0.72) +24%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 23/42g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 10/23g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (2·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/11g | 49/87g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Grant Anderson | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/8g | 4/14g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 27% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 2/8g | 21/56g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Thomas Duffy | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 0% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 7 | Ben Hunt | HB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 12/26g | 26/119g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Preston Riki | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 6/50g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 9/86g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 5/32g | 10% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 13/73g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Xavier Willison | LK | 4 in 14g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 8/38g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Blake Mozer | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Ben Talty | INT | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/12g | 21% | — | — |
| 16 | Aublix Tawha | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Gosiewski | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 4/22g | 12% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 5/19g | 7/21g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Billy Smith | WG | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/2g | 3/5g | 32% | — | 🏉 6' 42' |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/5g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (2·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 2/4g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (0·1·0·2·0·2·2·0·3·2) | 0/3g | 5/3g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.44 AI 80% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 27% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/20g | 6/21g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 5 in 13g | 5/10g (0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/11g | 24% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/12g | 0/14g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Nat Butcher | 2R | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 1/17g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 5/15g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 3/16g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1362 · Roosters 1576 · ELO difference: 214 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 880 | 1083 | Roosters +203 |
| Backs | 899 | 1057 | Roosters +158 |
| Halves | 889 | 1068 | Roosters +180 |
| Hooker | 896 | 1087 | Roosters +191 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Roosters predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-26 11:53 UTC (latest tip update)