# Wests Tigers v Dolphins — NRL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 22 – 36 Dolphins

_Dolphins ride the wave past Wests Tigers._

Half time: 10 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 31% / Dolphins 69% · Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 20 June, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Sione Fainu (7' 1st), Starford To'a (30' Tipped ⚡), Sione Fainu (54' 1st), Alex Seyfarth (77') · Dolphins: Herbie Farnworth (18' Tipped ⚡), Connelly Lemuelu (35'), Tevita Naufahu (43' Tipped ⚡), Trai Fuller (68'), Kodi Nikorima (72'), Jamayne Isaako (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 69% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.3 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 June 2026, 04:44 pm · Last updated: 20 June 2026, 04:55 pm_

Wests Tigers 22–36 Dolphins in NRL Round 16 at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dolphins beat Wests Tigers 36-22 at Campbelltown Sports Stadium, and the scoreboard makes it look like a comfortable away win. It wasn't, not for an hour anyway. Dolphins led by just two at the break, 12-10, and the Tigers were still very much alive deep into the second half before the visitors finally pulled clear.

Ten tries in total, and the lead changed hands four times before it settled. Sione Fainu opened the scoring in the 7th minute, Herbie Farnworth answered for Dolphins at 17', Starford To'a put the Tigers back in front at 30', and Connelly Lemuelu levelled it at 35'. Tevita Naufahu then gave Dolphins the lead again right before the break, 16-10, and it stayed a genuine arm wrestle from there. Sione Fainu grabbed his second for the Tigers at 53' to make it 14-18, and this was still a four-point game with 20 minutes left. Dolphins finally broke it open late: Trai Fuller at 67', Kodi Nikorima at 72' and Jamayne Isaako at 78' turned a tight contest into a 14-point win. Alex Seyfarth's try at 76' for the Tigers was too little, too late.

The ball-in-hand numbers explain how Dolphins got there without ever really dominating. They ran for 1,806 metres to the Tigers' 1,679, and made 589 post-contact metres to 565. Handy edges, not landslides. The Tigers actually finished with the better effective tackle rate, 89.3% to 87.8%, and matched Dolphins tackle break for tackle break at 35 apiece. Possession was split dead even, 50-50, and both sides completed at 80%.

So what actually separated them? Line breaks. Dolphins cut the line six times to the Tigers' three, and that number did more to decide this game than anything else on the stat sheet. Errors mattered too: Dolphins coughed it up 10 times to the Tigers' 13, giving themselves more shots at converting field position into points. The Tigers held the discipline edge, conceding two penalties to Dolphins' four, but it barely registered against those six line breaks.

The gap looks less surprising once you check what each side brought into the game. Dolphins rated well ahead of the Tigers across every position group: forwards 1150 to 894, backs 1157 to 890, halves 1117 to 943, hooker 1122 to 936. Form lined up the same way. Dolphins arrived on a five-game winning streak, averaging 38.8 points a game and conceding just 13.6. The Tigers had won two of their last five and were leaking 40.4 points a game on average. On those numbers, a tight first half was arguably the upset, not the final margin.

Alphr's model had Dolphins as 69% favourites and picked the margin at 10.3 points against an actual result of 14, close enough to call it a sharp read. Dolphins covered the 8.5-point line. It's the kind of result where the ledger says routine and the game itself said otherwise, at least until the last quarter arrived and the gap in class finally showed up on the scoreboard.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 10 | 12 | 22 |
| Dolphins | 12 | 24 | 36 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 80% | Completion rate | 80% |
| 1,679 | Run metres | **1,806** |
| 565 | Post-contact metres | **589** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 35 | Tackle breaks | 35 |
| **8** | Offloads | 6 |
| **89.3%** | Effective tackle % | 87.8% |
| 35 | Missed tackles | 35 |
| 13 | Errors | **10** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **556** | Kick metres | 524 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 69% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Dolphins by 10.3 vs the actual margin of 14 points. Dolphins led 10–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 6/17 on this match. Dolphins covered the 8.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (76 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 17 points above Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 41. Dolphins's victory aligns with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's historical trend, Dolphins have a 50% win rate under this referee. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 13.3 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 71% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Sione Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 17' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 30' Try — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 35' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 42' Try — Tevita Naufahu (Dolphins) — 10-16 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 53' Try — Sione Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 14-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 67' Try — Trai Fuller (Dolphins) — 16-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 72' Try — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 16-28 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 76' Try — Alex Seyfarth (Wests Tigers) — 20-30 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 78' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 22-34 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.39 (edge +0.7%) — model probability 69.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 10 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dolphins here: 69% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 219 ELO points clear, 1638 to 1419. Form leans Dolphins' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Wests Tigers.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 10.3, with the two sides combining for about 50. Dolphins to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Dolphins have won 3 of the last 5 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 36-22 in 2026 Round 16.

Dolphins have won 8 straight; Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 10th against Dolphins 4th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Wests Tigers $3.03 and Dolphins $1.39, with the line at Wests Tigers +8.5 and the total at 52.5.

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski has the whistle: 16.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 5) | Wests Tigers 2 · Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 36-22 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWW · 110 for, 64 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 10th · Dolphins 4th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Dolphins 100% |
| Market | Wests Tigers $3.03 · Dolphins $1.39 |
| Line | Wests Tigers +8.5 · total 52.5 |
| Referee | Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski · 16.0 pens/g · 0.3 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski** — 76 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 6W–9L | 40% |
| Dolphins | 0W–0L | 50% |

Avg total: 41.5 pts · Home win %: 46% · Home bias: Leans away

Dolphins hold a 10-point edge: 0W–0L (50%) vs Wests Tigers's 6W–9L (40%). Small sample (0 games for Dolphins).

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 13.3 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7 against away. Wests Tigers get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski vs Dolphins's -2.0. 71% of his 38 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 38.8pts |
| 40.4pts | Avg Conceded | 13.6pts |
| -22.0pts | Avg Margin | 25.2pts |
| 1384.6m | Run Metres | 1706.0m |
| 3.2 | Line Breaks | 9.0 |
| 300.0 | Tackles | 305.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 5.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | R10 L · R11 L · R13 W · R14 L · R15 W | 18.4 |
| Dolphins | R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R14 W · R15 W | 38.8 |

### H2H History (Last 4) — Tied 2-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R3 | Dolphins | 18 – 30 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R11 | Wests Tigers | 12 – 24 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R5 | Dolphins | 26 – 16 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R25 | Wests Tigers | 24 – 23 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.38 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 6th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.69 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 15th there (1.62 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 11 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 10th) | 1.38/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.15/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.69/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.23/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.69/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.38/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.62/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.69/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 10 | 7 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 230m/g | 206m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 3.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 87.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 30 · 38 | 46 · 32 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 696m/g | 881m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.6/g | 19.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.5/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76% | 83.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 13 | 7 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 529m/g | 523m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.4/g | 7.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 91.3% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.16) +13% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.16) +56% · Fullbacks 0.61/g (lg 0.42) +45% · Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Campbelltown Sports Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/11g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 3/6g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 18% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Taylan May | CE | 6 in 7g | 8/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 25% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Patrick Herbert | CE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 5 | Starford To'a | WG | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 3/9g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 22% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jock Madden | HB | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 6/15g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/14g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Tony Sukkar | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Sione Fainu | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/9g | 4% | — | 🏉 7' 54' |
| 13 | Alex Seyfarth | LK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 1/19g | 14% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 14 | Josese Lanyon | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Bunty Afoa | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Mavrik Geyer | RES | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Charlie Murray | RES | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trai Fuller | FB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 11 in 13g | 9/10g (1·0·0·2·1·3·0·1·1·0) | 1/9g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.54 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 79' |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 4 in 6g | 10/10g (1·1·4·0·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | WG | 2 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.61 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/13g | 0/3g | 28% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 8 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 1/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 20% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | HB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Gilbert | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Ray Stone | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1419 · Dolphins 1638 · ELO difference: 219 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 894 | 1150 | Dolphins +256 |
| Backs | 890 | 1157 | Dolphins +267 |
| Halves | 943 | 1117 | Dolphins +174 |
| Hooker | 936 | 1122 | Dolphins +186 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-20 06:55 UTC (latest tip update)