# Storm v Raiders — NRL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 42 – 20 Raiders

_Storm whip up a storm against Raiders._

Half time: 20 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 73% / Raiders 27% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Sun, 21 June, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Will Warbrick (21' Tipped ⚡), Ativalu Lisati (24'), Cameron Munster (28'), Will Warbrick (40' Tipped ⚡), Will Warbrick (59' Tipped ⚡), Moses Leo (68' Tipped ⚡), Sualauvi Faalogo (71'), Trent Toelau (78') · Raiders: Savelio Tamale (2' 1st Tipped 🎯), Owen Pattie (8'), Xavier Savage (17' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Timoko (36')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 73% | Won |
| Raiders | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.8 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 June 2026, 04:44 pm · Last updated: 21 June 2026, 05:59 pm_

Storm 42–20 Raiders in NRL Round 16 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifty-eight missed tackles. That's the number that undid Canberra, and Storm made them pay for every one of them on the way to a 42-20 win at AAMI Park.

It didn't look like that story early. The Raiders scored three tries inside 16 minutes, Savelio Tamale opening the account before Owen Pattie and Xavier Savage piled on, and Canberra led 14-0 before Storm had touched the ball in attack that mattered. Will Warbrick got the home side moving in the 21st minute, Ativalu Lisati and Cameron Munster followed inside the next six, and by the 27th minute it was 16-16. Matthew Timoko restored a Raiders lead at 20-16, but Warbrick's second try levelled it again just before the break. Twenty-all at half-time, and anyone's game.

Then it stopped being anyone's game. Storm didn't cross again until the 59th minute, but from there it was one-way traffic: Warbrick's hat-trick try, then Moses Leo, Sualauvi Faalogo and Trent Toelau in the space of 19 minutes turned a tied match into a 22-point rout. Canberra had nothing left to answer with.

The missed tackles explain why. Storm's defence wasn't flawless either, 39 missed of its own, but Canberra's line simply couldn't hold shape, and Storm's 56 tackle busts to 36 tell you they kept finding the same soft edges over and over. Seven line breaks to two is the number that turns busted tackles into points, and Storm cashed in on nearly every meaningful one.

Storm also just did more with the ball. Fifty-four per cent possession, an 84% completion rate against Canberra's 75%, and only five errors to the Raiders' nine. That's the difference between a side that got to play the game it wanted and one that kept handing back field position through its own mistakes. The 544 post-contact metres, well clear of Canberra's 413, back up the eye test: Storm's forwards were finishing carries, not just making them.

Oddly enough, the Raiders won a few of the effective-tackle and offload columns, 84.3% effective tackling against 81.9%, and 21 offloads to 9. Individually those numbers look decent. Collectively they didn't matter, because you can offload all you like when you're not making the tackles that stop the other side scoring in the first place. Kick metres were dead even, 434 to 430, so field position wasn't the tale of this one. Execution was.

The pre-match read had Storm favourites at 73% with a projected margin of 10.8 from ratings of 1503 to 1404, built on clear edges in the backs (1042 to 900) and halves (990 to 912). Fair read on the winner, short on the margin: the actual gap came in at 22, more than double the model's number, and Storm's four wins from five heading in against Canberra's one made the form line look every bit as lopsided as the final score.

Storm covered the 8.5-point line comfortably in the end. The Raiders led for a good chunk of this game and still lost by 22. That's a fairly blunt way of saying which side had the legs when it counted.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 20 | 22 | 42 |
| Raiders | 20 | 0 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,761** | Run metres | 1,390 |
| **544** | Post-contact metres | 413 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **56** | Tackle breaks | 36 |
| 9 | Offloads | **21** |
| 81.9% | Effective tackle % | **84.3%** |
| **39** | Missed tackles | 58 |
| **5** | Errors | 9 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 430 | Kick metres | **434** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 10.8 was reasonable against the actual 22-point result. The model went 7/16 on this match. Storm covered the 8.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (109 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 16 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Storm's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Storm have a 69% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 8' Try — Owen Pattie (Raiders) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 16' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -13 pts
- 21' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 23' Try — Ativalu Lisati (Storm) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Try — Cameron Munster (Storm) — 16-16 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 35' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 16-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 39' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 20-20 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 59' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 24-20 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 67' Try — Moses Leo (Storm) — 28-20 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 70' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 34-20 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 78' Try — Trent Toelau (Storm) — 40-20 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.38 (edge +4.3%) — model probability 73.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 11 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 73% to see off Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 100 ELO points clear, 1503 to 1404. Form leans Storm's way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Raiders.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Storm by 10.8, with the two sides combining for about 48. Storm to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 42-20 in 2026 Round 16.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games. Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Storm 11th against Raiders 13th.

The market has Storm favourites, Storm $1.38 and Raiders $3.09, with the line at Storm -8.5 and the total at 51.5.

Storm come in fresher, 15 days between games against 7.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 15.4 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 6 · Raiders 4 |
| Last meeting | Storm 42-20 |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm at home | 7-5 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 11th · Raiders 13th |
| Finals odds | Storm 0% · Raiders 0% |
| Market | Storm $1.38 · Raiders $3.09 |
| Line | Storm -8.5 · total 51.5 |
| Rest gap | Storm 15d · Raiders 7d |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 15.4 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Todd Smith** — 109 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 9W–4L | 69% |
| Raiders | 7W–9L | 44% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Todd Smith officiates, Storm have won 9 of 13 games (69%), significantly stronger than Raiders's 7 from 16 (44%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Storm get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Raiders's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 29.6pts | Avg Score | 15.6pts |
| 17.6pts | Avg Conceded | 22.6pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Margin | -7.0pts |
| 1705.0m | Run Metres | 1742.6m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 300.0 | Tackles | 300.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | R10 W · R11 W · R12 L · R13 W · R14 W | 29.6 |
| Raiders | R10 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 L · R15 L | 15.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R7 | Raiders | 26 – 22 | Storm |
| 2025 | R9 | Storm | 18 – 20 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R17 | Storm | 16 – 6 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R24 | Storm | 48 – 2 | Raiders |
| 2022 | R26 | Storm | 20 – 28 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.14 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 13th there (1.93 conceded/game). Key man: Faalogo, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 14th there (1.43 conceded/game). Key man: Tamale, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.86/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 13th (weak)) | 0.71/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 2.14/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.29/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.93/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.29/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.43/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.21/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 6 | 9 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 234m/g | 187m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.4/g | 5.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.7% | 84.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 38 · 39 | 27 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 695m/g | 753m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.6/g | 19.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.6% | 77.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 16 | 10 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 501m/g | 537m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 8.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Centres 0.95/g (lg 0.72) +32% · Five-Eighths 0.31/g (lg 0.27) +15%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.37/g (lg 1.27) +8% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.72) -4% · 2nd Rows 0.39/g (lg 0.47) -17%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 12 in 14g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 9/16g | 47% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 11 in 14g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 19/32g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.52 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' 40' 59' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/24g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Joe Chan | CE | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/22g | 6% | — | — |
| 5 | Moses Leo | WG | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/0g | 3/6g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 3/18g | 36/108g | 16% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 3 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/15g | 33/75g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 1/21g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | INT | 6 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/7g | 21/54g | 36% | 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/12g | 7/53g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Cooper Clarke | 2R | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 17% | — | — |
| 12 | Ativalu Lisati | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/11g | 17% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 5/53g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 3% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/38g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Hetherington | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 8 in 14g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 1/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (2·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 57% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 2' |
| 3 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·0) | 1/6g | 1/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 65% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 1/4g | 26% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 38% | — | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | INT | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/20g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/4g | 28% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Jayden Brailey | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 15 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1503 · Raiders 1404 · ELO difference: 100 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 980 | 931 | Storm +49 |
| Backs | 1042 | 900 | Storm +142 |
| Halves | 990 | 912 | Storm +77 |
| Hooker | 988 | 896 | Storm +92 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Storm |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Storm predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-21 07:59 UTC (latest tip update)