# Roosters v Sharks — NRL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 27 – 8 Sharks

_Roosters crow over Sharks._

Half time: 14 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 64% / Sharks 36% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 21 June, 06:15 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Lindsay Collins (15' 1st), Robert Toia (28' Tipped ⚡), Billy Smith (34'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (63' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (78' Tipped ⚡) · Sharks: Ronaldo Mulitalo (39' Tipped ⚡), Sione Katoa (43' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 64% | Won |
| Sharks | 36% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.3 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 June 2026, 06:30 pm · Last updated: 21 June 2026, 08:05 pm_

Roosters 27–8 Sharks in NRL Round 16 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nine penalties to four. That's the number that decided this one, and it's why Roosters left Allianz Stadium with a 27-8 win that looked tighter on paper than it ever felt on the field.

Sharks gave away more than double the penalty count of the home side, and every one of those errors in judgement handed Roosters another crack at field position. It showed up everywhere else too. Roosters kicked for 706 metres to the Sharks' 496, and with that much territory to work with, the tries came in bursts.

Lindsay Collins got it rolling in the 14th minute, Robert Toia followed in the 27th, and Billy Smith made it three from three in the 34th. Roosters were 12-0 up before Sharks had troubled the scoreboard, and by half-time it was 14-4. Sharks hit back hard either side of the break through Ronaldo Mulitalo in the 38th and Sione Katoa four minutes later, and at 14-8 there was a genuine sniff of a contest.

That sniff didn't last. Mark Nawaqanitawase crossed in the 63rd minute to push the margin to 12, Daly Cherry-Evans slotted a one-point field goal in the 71st, and Nawaqanitawase came back for his second in the 78th to turn a manageable gap into a 19-point beating. Two tries in six minutes from the same man, right when Sharks needed a stop, not a green light.

The forward battle tells its own story. Roosters ran for 1,618 metres to 1,443, and their 557 post-contact metres against 452 suggests a pack that kept legs driving through the tackle. Add 18 offloads to the Sharks' 10 and you've got a side that kept the ball alive after first contact far more often, which matters when your kicking game is putting the other team under that much pressure.

Sharks were tidier with the footy itself, no argument there. They completed at 83% against 82% and coughed up just 9 errors to the Roosters' 12. But clean hands mean nothing if you're also gifting field position through the penalty count, and Sharks did exactly that.

The formbook made this a trickier read than the final margin suggests. Sharks came in with the stronger positional ratings across forwards, backs, halves and hooker, and their last-five form had them winning four of five at an average of 24.4 points a game to the Roosters' 16. Alphr's model still leaned Roosters, rating them 1536 to the Sharks' 1594 but calling a 64% win probability and an expected margin of 5.3. The winner call landed. The margin didn't, not by half, with the actual gap blowing out to 19. The under 49.5 total, though, came in exactly as tipped.

Roosters did the damage where it mattered most: discipline, go-forward, and two second-half tries from Nawaqanitawase that turned a form upset into a comfortable night.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 14 | 13 | 27 |
| Sharks | 4 | 4 | 8 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| 82% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| **1,618** | Run metres | 1,443 |
| **557** | Post-contact metres | 452 |
| 3 | Line breaks | 3 |
| 20 | Tackle breaks | **21** |
| **18** | Offloads | 10 |
| 89.2% | Effective tackle % | **89.3%** |
| 21 | Missed tackles | **20** |
| 12 | Errors | **9** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| **706** | Kick metres | 496 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 64% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.3 but the actual margin was 19 points. Roosters led 14–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 19. The model went 6/17 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (388 career games). The combined score of 35 points was 9 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Roosters's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Roosters have a 60% win rate under this referee. Roosters's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 14' Try — Lindsay Collins (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 34' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +11 pts
- 38' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 42' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 14-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 63' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 20-8 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 71' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Daly Cherry-Evans (Roosters) — 21-8 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 78' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 25-8 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.52 (edge +1.9%) — model probability 64.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 64%, but Sharks stay live at 36%. The ratings say otherwise: Sharks sit 58 ELO points clear, 1594 to 1536, so the model is backing Roosters against the ratings gap. Form leans Sharks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Roosters.

On paper Sharks shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Roosters, which says Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Roosters by 5.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 27-8 in 2026 Round 16.

Roosters have lost 4 straight; Roosters have leaked 120 in their last four. Roosters have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Roosters 6th against Sharks 5th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.52 and Sharks $2.53, with the line at Roosters -5.5 and the total at 49.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 14.9 penalties a game (whistle-happy), home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 6 · Sharks 4 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 27-8 |
| Roosters last 4 | LLLL · 68 for, 120 against |
| Roosters at home | 8-4 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | WLLW · 94 for, 100 against |
| Sharks away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 6th · Sharks 5th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Roosters $1.52 · Sharks $2.53 |
| Line | Roosters -5.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 14.9 pens/g · 0.4 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Ashley Klein** — 388 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 42W–28L | 60% |
| Sharks | 25W–32L | 44% |

Avg total: 43.6 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ashley Klein officiates, Roosters have won 42 of 70 games (60%), significantly stronger than Sharks's 25 from 57 (44%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Sharks get a +-0.5 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Roosters's -1.4.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 24.4pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| -3.2pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 2311.0m | Run Metres | 1582.0m |
| 4.0 | Line Breaks | 3.0 |
| 360.0 | Tackles | 386.0 |
| 7.0 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R10 W · R11 L · R13 L · R14 W · R15 L | 16.0 |
| Sharks | R10 L · R11 W · R13 W · R14 W · R15 W | 24.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R6 | Sharks | 22 – 34 | Roosters |
| 2025 | FW1 | Sharks | 20 – 10 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R20 | Sharks | 31 – 18 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R12 | Roosters | 42 – 16 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R11 | Sharks | 38 – 30 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 12th there (1.31 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 10 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.08 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 12th there (1.85 conceded/game). Key man: Trindall, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.85/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 8th) | 1.54/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.69/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.85/g (def 12th) | 2.08/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.77/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.23/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.31/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 7 | 14 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.9/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 172m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 88.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 40 · 32 | 32 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 747m/g | 736m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.5/g | 16.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.9% | 79.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 8 | 14 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 545m/g | 469m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.3/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.72) -3% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.22) -5%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Fullbacks 0.48/g (lg 0.42) +14% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.16) +13%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 6 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 8/18g | 28/53g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 43% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Tommy Talau | WG | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 2/6g | 34% | — | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/9g | 28% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/14g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 10 in 9g | 11/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·2·2·0·3) | 2/4g | 15/15g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.51 AI 82% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 26% ✗ Not first | 🏉 63' 78' |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/23g | 5/27g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 11/24g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/29g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/14g | 2/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/35g | 8% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 3/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 7/44g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 7/47g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | 2R | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/32g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 6 in 13g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 0/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 9 in 12g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·3·3·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 70% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 4 in 4g | 12/10g (2·3·0·2·1·0·2·0·2·0) | 8/9g | 2/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 7 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/8g | 2/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 3/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Jesse Colquhoun | PR | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/10g | 1/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·3·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 2/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Billy Burns | INT | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Oregon Kaufusi | RES | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1594 vs 1536), but the market favours Roosters (@1.52). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1536 · Sharks 1594 · ELO difference: 58 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1000 | 1093 | Sharks +93 |
| Backs | 1043 | 1061 | Sharks +18 |
| Halves | 1026 | 1125 | Sharks +99 |
| Hooker | 1042 | 1091 | Sharks +49 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Roosters predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-21 10:05 UTC (latest tip update)