# Knights v Dragons — NRL Round 16 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 22 – 20 Dragons

_Knights conquer a gallant Dragons._

Half time: 16 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 77% / Dragons 23% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Fri, 19 June, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Fletcher Sharpe (5' 1st Tipped ⚡), Fletcher Sharpe (8' 1st Tipped ⚡), Sandon Smith (54') · Dragons: Valentine Holmes (24' Tipped ⚡), Tyrell Sloan (32'), Setu Tu (61' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Egan (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 77% | Won |
| Dragons | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 14.4 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 16 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 16 June 2026, 04:48 pm · Last updated: 19 June 2026, 09:53 pm_

Knights 22–20 Dragons in NRL Round 16 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seven errors to eleven. That's the number that decided a two-point match, and it's why the Knights walked away 22-20 winners over the Dragons at McDonald Jones Stadium.

The scoreboard says arm-wrestle, and by full time that's exactly what it was, but it didn't start that way. Fletcher Sharpe crossed twice inside the first eight minutes to put the Knights out 10-0, the kind of start that should have put the game to bed against a side coming off four straight losses. It didn't. Valentine Holmes and Tyrell Sloan hit back either side of the half-hour mark and suddenly it was 12-10, Dragons very much alive. Knights led 16-12 at the break, Sandon Smith stretched it to 20-12 early in the second half, and then Setu Tu and Dylan Egan chipped away again to make it 22-20 with twenty minutes still on the clock. Knights had to survive the last quarter rather than dominate it.

Look at the raw yardage and this game should have been tighter than it was, or looser, depending which way you squint. Run metres were almost identical, 1,837 to 1,816. The Dragons actually won the collision stats that usually matter most, out-offloading the Knights 14 to 8 and generating more tackle breaks, 43 to 37. Their completion rate was better too, 90% to 89%, and their effective tackle percentage, 87.6% to 84.6%, tells you their defence held its shape more often than the Knights' did. On paper, that's a Dragons performance you can build a win around.

Except the ball. Eleven errors against seven is a heavy tax to pay in a two-point game, and the Knights made them pay for it with three line breaks to one and 654 post-contact metres to 608. When the Dragons had it, they moved it well. They just didn't hold onto it often enough, and every spilled ball was a Knights opportunity they didn't need twice.

Fletcher Sharpe's double did the early damage, Sandon Smith's try in the second half was the one that mattered most given how the finish played out. The Dragons spread their four tries across four different players, Holmes, Sloan, Tu and Egan, which speaks to a side that kept finding ways to threaten without ever getting one man on a roll.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the pre-match numbers. The Knights went into this rating 1476 to the Dragons' 1222, with halves, hooker and backline advantages that dwarfed anything the Dragons brought, and a recent record of four wins from five against one from five. Alphr's model had the Knights at 77% and got the winner right, called the total at 47 against an actual 42, close enough, and nailed the under

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 16 | 6 | 22 |
| Dragons | 12 | 8 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 89% | Completion rate | **90%** |
| **1,837** | Run metres | 1,816 |
| **654** | Post-contact metres | 608 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 37 | Tackle breaks | **43** |
| 8 | Offloads | **14** |
| 84.6% | Effective tackle % | **87.6%** |
| 43 | Missed tackles | **37** |
| **7** | Errors | 11 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 816 | Kick metres | **852** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 77% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 14.4 but the actual margin was 2 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 42, within 5 points. The model went 5/17 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (371 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Knights's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Knights have a 47% win rate under this referee. Knights's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 8' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 24' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 32' Try — Tyrell Sloan (Dragons) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 54' Try — Sandon Smith (Knights) — 20-12 · win-prob swing +14 pts
- 60' Try — Setu Tu (Dragons) — 22-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 70' Try — Dylan Egan (Dragons) — 22-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.24 (edge -0.1%) — model probability 76.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights -12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Knights 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Knights by 14 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Knights here: 77% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Knights sit 254 ELO points clear, 1476 to 1222. Form leans Knights' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Dragons.

Knights own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Knights by 14.4, with the two sides combining for about 47. Knights to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 22-20 in 2026 Round 16.

Knights have leaked 126 in their last four. Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Knights 7th against Dragons 17th.

The market has Knights favourites, Knights $1.24 and Dragons $4.10, with the line at Knights -12.5 and the total at 49.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 17.1 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.7 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 6 · Dragons 4 |
| Last meeting | Knights 22-20 |
| Knights last 4 | WLLW · 112 for, 126 against |
| Knights at home | 8-4 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 7th · Dragons 17th |
| Finals odds | Knights 100% · Dragons 0% |
| Market | Knights $1.24 · Dragons $4.10 |
| Line | Knights -12.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 17.1 pens/g · 0.7 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Knights

**Gerard Sutton** — 371 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 16W–18L | 47% |
| Dragons | 11W–23L | 32% |

Avg total: 41.8 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Knights have won 16 of 34 games (47%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 11 from 34 (32%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 64% of his 183 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 36.0pts | Avg Score | 14.0pts |
| 22.8pts | Avg Conceded | 32.4pts |
| 13.2pts | Avg Margin | -18.4pts |
| 1492.0m | Run Metres | 1576.8m |
| 9.0 | Line Breaks | 2.0 |
| 291.0 | Tackles | 300.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R13 W · R14 L | 36.0 |
| Dragons | R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 L | 14.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R10 | Dragons | 10 – 44 | Knights |
| 2025 | R13 | Dragons | 20 – 6 | Knights |
| 2024 | R5 | Knights | 30 – 10 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R27 | Dragons | 12 – 32 | Knights |
| 2022 | R6 | Dragons | 21 – 16 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (2.08 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (2.31 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 15 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.15 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 4th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.08/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.15/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.31/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.77/g (att 7th) · concedes 2.46/g (def 17th (weak)) | 0.54/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.62/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.31/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 10th) | 0.62/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 14 | 3 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 205m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 88.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 41 · 32 | 21 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 2.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 739m/g | 661m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.6/g | 12.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75% | 74.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 12 | 5 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 498m/g | 538m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 92.2% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.22) +55% · 2nd Rows 0.64/g (lg 0.46) +39% · Fullbacks 0.57/g (lg 0.42) +36%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.22) +55% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 14 in 13g | 11/10g (3·2·1·0·0·0·2·3·0·0) | 6/4g | 28/35g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.57 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/19g | 26/113g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 20/48g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 15 in 12g | 13/10g (1·0·2·0·0·3·5·1·1·0) | 7/4g | 28/35g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.47 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | FB | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/2g | 14/15g | 45% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 5' 8' |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 3/8g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/11g | 4/83g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/59g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 5 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/7g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Thomas Cant | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/48g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 10/58g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Cody Hopwood | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/13g | 1/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Setu Tu | WG | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 15/16g | 9/5g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| 5 | Mathew Feagai | WG | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | 5/8 | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 3/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 1/4g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1476 · Dragons 1222 · ELO difference: 254 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 966 | 720 | Knights +246 |
| Backs | 992 | 743 | Knights +249 |
| Halves | 1000 | 686 | Knights +314 |
| Hooker | 983 | 729 | Knights +254 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Knights |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Knights |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Knights predicted to win by 14 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-19 11:53 UTC (latest tip update)