# Wests Tigers v Titans — NRL Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 36 – 28 Titans

_Wests Tigers fight back to hunt down Titans._

Half time: 12 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 58% / Titans 42% · Leichhardt Oval, Sydney · Sun, 14 June, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Starford To'a (13' 1st Tipped ⚡), Taylan May (26' Tipped ⚡), Jarome Luai (48'), Alex Seyfarth (53'), Jarome Luai (70'), Jarome Luai (79') · Titans: Jayden Campbell (31' Tipped ⚡), Kurtis Morrin (35'), Arama Hau (37'), Beau Fermor (42'), Phillip Sami (61' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 58% | Won |
| Titans | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.5 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Titans Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 15, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 June 2026, 01:30 pm · Last updated: 14 June 2026, 05:55 pm_

Wests Tigers 36–28 Titans in NRL Round 15 at Leichhardt Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers beat the Titans 36-28 at Leichhardt Oval, and the final margin flatters the home side more than the game deserves. Titans led 18-12 at half-time and out-broke Wests Tigers on the line 6 to 4 for the match. This was not a case of one team dominating from siren to siren. For long stretches it was the visitors doing the damage, and Wests Tigers had to claw their way back into it.

The Tigers opened the scoring through Starford To'a in the 12th minute, then Taylan May extended it to 10-0 at the 26th. That was as comfortable as the home side would feel for a while. Jayden Campbell hit back for the Titans in the 30th, Kurtis Morrin followed four minutes later, and Arama Hau put the visitors in front at 36 minutes. By half-time it was 18-12 Titans' way, and Beau Fermor stretched the lead further early in the second half to make it 12-22.

From there Jarome Luai took over. He scored in the 47th minute to get Wests Tigers back within eight, and Alex Seyfarth's try in the 53rd cut it to two, 22-24. Phillip Sami restored a four-point buffer for the Titans in the 60th, but Luai struck again in the 70th to level it at 28-28, then completed his hat-trick in the 79th to put Wests Tigers in front for good at 34-28. The extra points from there took it out to the final 36-28.

The numbers behind the comeback are cleaner than the scoreline suggests. Wests Tigers completed at

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 12 | 24 | 36 |
| Titans | 18 | 10 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **90%** | Completion rate | 77% |
| **1,712** | Run metres | 1,667 |
| **524** | Post-contact metres | 428 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **42** | Tackle breaks | 39 |
| 14 | Offloads | 14 |
| **85.1%** | Effective tackle % | 84.4% |
| **39** | Missed tackles | 45 |
| **8** | Errors | 14 |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **696** | Kick metres | 577 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 58% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wests Tigers by 8.5 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 64 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 46. Wests Tigers trailed 12–18 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 36–28. The model went 7/17 on this match. Wests Tigers covered the 6.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (49 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 14 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Wests Tigers's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Wests Tigers have a 38% win rate under this referee. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 59% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 12' Try — Starford To'a (Wests Tigers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 26' Try — Taylan May (Wests Tigers) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 30' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 34' Try — Kurtis Morrin (Titans) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 36' Try — Arama Hau (Titans) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 42' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 12-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 47' Try — Jarome Luai (Wests Tigers) — 16-24 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 53' Try — Alex Seyfarth (Wests Tigers) — 22-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 60' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 24-28 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 70' Try — Jarome Luai (Wests Tigers) — 28-28 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 79' Try — Jarome Luai (Wests Tigers) — 34-28 · win-prob swing +6 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.49 (edge -5.4%) — model probability 58.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers -6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 9 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wests Tigers are the call at 58%, but Titans stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wests Tigers sit 67 ELO points clear, 1398 to 1331.

Wests Tigers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 8.5, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Wests Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Titans have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Wests Tigers took the most recent meeting 36-28 in 2026 Round 15.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year. Titans have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 10th against Titans 15th.

The market has Wests Tigers favourites, Wests Tigers $1.49 and Titans $2.63, with the line at Wests Tigers -6.5 and the total at 50.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 14.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), home sides win 59% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 4 · Titans 6 |
| Last meeting | Wests Tigers 36-28 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 10th · Titans 15th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Titans 0% |
| Market | Wests Tigers $1.49 · Titans $2.63 |
| Line | Wests Tigers -6.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 14.0 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Wests Tigers

**Wyatt Raymond** — 49 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 3W–5L | 38% |
| Titans | 2W–5L | 29% |

Avg total: 50.1 pts · Home win %: 59% · Home bias: Leans home

Wests Tigers hold a 9-point edge: 3W–5L (38%) vs Titans's 2W–5L (29%). Games average 50.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 59% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Titans).

Wests Tigers get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Titans's +0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 13.2pts | Avg Score | 14.8pts |
| 45.2pts | Avg Conceded | 25.4pts |
| -32.0pts | Avg Margin | -10.6pts |
| 1266.0m | Run Metres | 1713.0m |
| 3.0 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 426.0 | Tackles | 395.5 |
| 17.0 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R13 W · R14 L | 13.2 |
| Titans | R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R14 W | 14.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R27 | Titans | 36 – 28 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R20 | Wests Tigers | 21 – 20 | Titans |
| 2024 | R15 | Wests Tigers | 18 – 10 | Titans |
| 2023 | R15 | Titans | 28 – 12 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R1 | Wests Tigers | 10 – 22 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 15th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Pearce-Paul, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the middle: NRL's 13th-ranked middle attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 16th there (2.25 conceded/game). Key man: Campbell, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 10th) | 1.08/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.25/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.42/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.75/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 9 | 8 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 231m/g | 196m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 37 | 19 · 39 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 695m/g | 747m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.6/g | 15.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.5% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 11 | 6 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 527m/g | 480m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.4/g | 7.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.9% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.72/g (lg 0.42) +71% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · 2nd Rows 0.57/g (lg 0.46) +24%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.16) +56% · Fullbacks 0.62/g (lg 0.42) +48% · Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Leichhardt Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 7/9g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/5g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 23% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Taylan May | CE | 5 in 6g | 8/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·2·0) | 1/3g | 4/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.82 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 27% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| 4 | Starford To'a | CE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/8g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 8% ✓ Scored | 🏉 13' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/5g | 8% | — | 🏉 48' 70' 79' |
| 7 | Jock Madden | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 8% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 9 | Latu Fainu | INT | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Tony Sukkar | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 4 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Sione Fainu | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Alex Seyfarth | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/16g | 10% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 16 | Bunty Afoa | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Patrick Herbert | WG | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jensen Taumoepeau | WG | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Jaylan De Groot | CE | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 15% | — | — |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/7g | 3/3g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 6 in 12g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 7/8g | 3/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 24% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 3/5g | 1/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| 7 | Zane Harrison | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Oliver Pascoe | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 10 | Klese Haas | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Arama Hau | 2R | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 20% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 13 | Cooper Bai | LK | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 15 | Josh Patston | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jett Liu | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Adam Christensen | RES | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1398 · Titans 1331 · ELO difference: 67 in favour of Wests Tigers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 937 | 804 | Wests Tigers +132 |
| Backs | 921 | 818 | Wests Tigers +103 |
| Halves | 922 | 821 | Wests Tigers +101 |
| Hooker | 921 | 840 | Wests Tigers +81 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Titans |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Titans |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-14 07:55 UTC (latest tip update)