# Warriors v Sharks — NRL Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 8 – 10 Sharks

_Sharks survive a scare against Warriors._

Half time: 6 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 71% / Sharks 29% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Sat, 13 June, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Te Maire Martin (29') · Sharks: Jesse Ramien (25' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 71% | Lost |
| Sharks | 29% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.8 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Warriors vs Sharks Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 15, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 June 2026, 01:30 pm · Last updated: 13 June 2026, 07:22 pm_

Warriors 8–10 Sharks in NRL Round 15 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had the Warriors winning this by 8.8 points, backed by a 71% probability and a combined total near 42. None of that happened. Sharks won it 10-8 at Go Media Stadium, the total landed 24 points under what the model expected, and the margin came in at 2 instead of nearly 9 the wrong way. Call it what it is: a miss, and a clean one.

The scoring took all of four minutes to sort itself out. Jesse Ramien put the Sharks up 0-6 in the 24th minute, Te Maire Martin hit back for the Warriors four minutes later to make it 4-8, and that was the entire story of tries for the night. Sharks led 8-6 at half-time and nobody found another one after that. Eighteen points, two tries, a whole match decided by the sort of grinding detail that doesn't show up on a highlights reel.

Where the model's read actually held up was in the positional ratings. Warriors came in stronger across the backs (1128 to 1056) and marginally ahead in forwards and halves. On the stat sheet, though, none of that translated. Sharks ran for 1,535 metres to the Warriors' 1,414, added 490 post-contact metres to 423, and broke 35 tackles to the Warriors' 24. A side rated weaker on paper simply won the collisions.

Discipline with the ball told the same story. Sharks completed at 84% against the Warriors' 79%, coughed up the ball just 10 times to 14, and held 55% of the possession. Those aren't flashy numbers but they're the sort that let you control a low-scoring arm-wrestle without needing to score much.

Defensively it was just as lopsided. Sharks tackled at 92.0% effective, Warriors at 88.5%, and the missed tackle count, 24 for the Sharks against 35 for the Warriors, explains why the home side spent the night chasing field position instead of banking it. Line breaks were even at two apiece, so it wasn't a case of the Sharks slicing through. They just made fewer mistakes and finished their carries harder.

Form lines pointed to a tighter contest than the model's 8.8-point gap suggested. Both sides won four of their last five, and the Sharks arrived with better recent metreage (1,847 to 1,767) despite a lower average margin coming in. The ratings gap between the two clubs, 1617 to 1569, was real enough, but a 2-point result says the gap on this particular Saturday was closer to nothing.

For the model, it's a rough one to wear: 2 from 17 on this match, the total badly overcooked, and the Warriors backed as clear favourites when the away side had the better completion rate, the better tackle efficiency and the bigger tank of post-contact metres all night. The under on 49.5 landed, and the Sharks covered the line, so the read wasn't a total washout. Just not the version anyone wanted.

Warriors will look at 35 missed tackles and 14 errors and know exactly where the 2 points went. Sharks won the fight in the mud, not the highlight count, and that was enough.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Sharks | 8 | 2 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 79% | Completion rate | **84%** |
| 1,414 | Run metres | **1,535** |
| 423 | Post-contact metres | **490** |
| 2 | Line breaks | 2 |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **35** |
| 7 | Offloads | **10** |
| 88.5% | Effective tackle % | **92.0%** |
| 35 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| 14 | Errors | **10** |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **795** | Kick metres | 782 |

**Model Report Card**

Sharks defied the model's 71% prediction for Warriors, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 8.8 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 18 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 42. The model went 2/17 on this match. Sharks covered the 9.5-point line. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (370 career games). The combined score of 18 points was 24 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sharks's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Sharks have a 55% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Sharks prevailed. 65% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 24' Try — Jesse Ramien (Sharks) — 0-6 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 28' Try — Te Maire Martin (Warriors) — 4-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.35 (edge +0.6%) — model probability 71.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 9 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warriors here: 71% to see off Sharks. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 48 ELO points clear, 1617 to 1569.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warriors by 8.8, with the two sides combining for about 42. Warriors to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Warriors have won 6 straight; Warriors have put up 162 points in four games; Warriors are 10-2 at home this year.

On the ladder it's Warriors 2nd against Sharks 6th.

The market has Warriors favourites, Warriors $1.35 and Sharks $3.25, with the line at Warriors -9.5 and the total at 49.5.

Warriors come in fresher, 12 days between games against 6.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 16.3 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 5 · Sharks 5 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 10-8 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWWW · 162 for, 94 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-2 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | LWLL · 88 for, 108 against |
| Sharks away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 2nd · Sharks 6th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Warriors $1.35 · Sharks $3.25 |
| Line | Warriors -9.5 · total 49.5 |
| Rest gap | Warriors 12d · Sharks 6d |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 16.3 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Gerard Sutton** — 370 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 10W–16L | 38% |
| Sharks | 26W–21L | 55% |

Avg total: 41.9 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Sharks have won 26 of 47 games (55%), significantly stronger than Warriors's 10 from 26 (38%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 65% of his 182 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 29.2pts | Avg Score | 32.8pts |
| 15.2pts | Avg Conceded | 19.2pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Margin | 13.6pts |
| 1767.0m | Run Metres | 1847.0m |
| 8.5 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 331.0 | Tackles | 320.0 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R8 W · R9 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L | 29.2 |
| Sharks | R9 W · R10 L · R11 W · R13 W · R14 W | 32.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Sharks | 36 – 22 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R14 | Sharks | 10 – 40 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R26 | Sharks | 28 – 30 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R1 | Warriors | 12 – 16 | Sharks |
| 2023 | R20 | Warriors | 44 – 12 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 13th there (1.42 conceded/game). Key man: Watene-Zelezniak, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.25 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 3rd there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Trindall, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.17/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.83/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th) |
| Middle | 2.42/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2.25/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.42/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.67/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.25/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 13th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 5 | 14 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 3.1/g |
| Run Metres | 152m/g | 177m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.3% | 88.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 35 · 24 | 31 · 33 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 643m/g | 737m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.4/g | 16.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78% | 79.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 7 | 14 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 611m/g | 473m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.2/g | 7.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 90% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.1) +70% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.72) -1%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.85/g (lg 0.72) +18% · Fullbacks 0.48/g (lg 0.42) +14% · Wingers 1.16/g (lg 1.28) -9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/16g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 14 in 12g | 12/10g (0·0·3·2·1·1·1·2·2·0) | 16/19g | 23/38g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.49 AI 81% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/9g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 9/36g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 9 in 8g | 9/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·2·0·2·1) | 0/3g | 3/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.48 AI 82% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 23% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 15/31g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 3 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/9g | 2/18g | 18% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 8 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/12g | 2/37g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/32g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Marata Niukore | 2R | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 5/27g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 2/14g | 13% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/17g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Makaia Tafua | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/18g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Kayliss Fatialofa | RES | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 6/12g | 0/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 2/3g | 16% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (0·0·1·1·0·3·3·1·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 4 in 3g | 12/10g (0·2·3·0·2·1·0·2·0·2) | 9/10g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 7 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 1/8g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Niwhai Puru | HB | 1 in 2g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| 8 | Jesse Colquhoun | PR | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Jayden Berrell | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Billy Burns | 2R | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/6g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·3·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Mawene Hiroti | RES | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1617 · Sharks 1569 · ELO difference: 48 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1099 | 1071 | Warriors +28 |
| Backs | 1128 | 1056 | Warriors +72 |
| Halves | 1124 | 1106 | Warriors +18 |
| Hooker | 1090 | 1091 | Sharks +1 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sharks |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Warriors predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r15-warriors-v-sharks
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-13 09:22 UTC (latest tip update)