# Eels v Raiders — NRL Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Eels 15 – 12 Raiders

_Eels wriggle past Raiders in a tight one._

Half time: 9 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Eels 46% / Raiders 54% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 13 June, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Eels: Jordan Samrani (11' 1st Tipped 🎯), Kelma Tuilagi (24'), Kitione Kautoga (50') · Raiders: Matthew Timoko (61'), Daine Laurie (69')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 54% | Lost |
| Eels | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.4 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Eels vs Raiders Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 15, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 June 2026, 01:30 pm · Last updated: 13 June 2026, 09:21 pm_

Eels 15–12 Raiders in NRL Round 15 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eels 15, Raiders 12, and for long stretches this one didn't look like a contest at all.

Jordan Samrani opened it up in the 10th minute, then the Raiders did themselves no favours when Ethan Sanders was sent to the sin bin at the 23rd. A man down, Kelma Tuilagi crossed a minute later and Ronald Volkman slotted a field goal right on the stroke of half-time. Eels 9, Raiders 0 at the break, and Canberra had nothing to show for it.

Kitione Kautoga stretched it to 13-0 in the 49th minute and by then this had the shape of a blowout. The Raiders were the better side going forward all night by most of the ledger, more possession at 51%, a completion rate of 76% against 73%, and 615 post-contact metres to the Eels' 550. None of it was landing on the scoreboard.

Then the Raiders finally found some points. Matthew Timoko got one back in the 61st minute, Daine Laurie followed it up in the 68th, and suddenly a laugher was 15-12 with time still on the clock. Eels' shot at a comfortable win had evaporated into a genuine finish, and Canberra's form line, two wins from their last five against Parramatta's one, looked like it might count for something after all.

It didn't quite get there. The Raiders ran the ball hard all match, out-gaining Parramatta on tackle breaks 34 to 29 and offloads were about the only forward metric Parramatta won, 10 to 8. But the stuff that actually decides tight finishes went the home side's way: 11 errors to 12, and 5 penalties conceded against 6. In a three-point game those are the numbers that matter more than metres.

The Eels also just about matched a bigger, higher-rated pack. Canberra came in rated stronger everywhere on paper, forwards 904 to 796, backs 940 to 864, halves 940 to 833, hooker 967 to 853. On the stat sheet the gap barely showed. Run metres finished almost level, 1,664 to 1,636, and line breaks were shared four apiece. Whatever the numbers on the team sheet said before kick-off, Parramatta more than held their end up in the arm-wrestle that followed.

Alphr's model had Canberra favoured at 54% and predicted a 4.4-point win to the Raiders on a combined total of 45. The Eels flipped the head-to-head result, but the margin was close to the mark, 3 points instead of 4.4 the other way. The total was the bigger miss for the raw number but the right side of the line: 27 points played out against a predicted 45, comfortably clearing the under 49.5 call. Three from seventeen on this one, filed under wins and misses, all of it.

Canberra will look at those two late tries and wonder what a few more minutes would have done. Parramatta will look at 9-0 and 13-0 and know exactly how they won it: fast starts, a Sanders sin bin they made count, and just enough discipline to survive a grandstand finish.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eels | 9 | 6 | 15 |
| Raiders | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Eels | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 73% | Completion rate | **76%** |
| **1,664** | Run metres | 1,636 |
| 550 | Post-contact metres | **615** |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| 29 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| **10** | Offloads | 8 |
| 87.9% | Effective tackle % | **88.0%** |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **29** |
| **11** | Errors | 12 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 605 | Kick metres | **631** |

**Model Report Card**

Eels defied the model's 54% prediction for Raiders, a notable result. The predicted margin of 4.4 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 27 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 3/17 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (75 career games). The combined score of 27 points was 15 points below Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 42. Eels's victory aligns with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's historical trend, Eels have a 43% win rate under this referee. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 13.3 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 71% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Jordan Samrani (Eels) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 23' Sin Bin — Ethan Sanders (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 24' Try — Kelma Tuilagi (Eels) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 39' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Ronald Volkman (Eels) — 9-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 49' Try — Kitione Kautoga (Eels) — 13-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 61' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 15-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 68' Try — Daine Laurie (Raiders) — 15-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.67 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 54.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 4 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 54%, but Eels stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Raiders sit 102 ELO points clear, 1433 to 1331. Form leans Raiders' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Eels.

Raiders own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Raiders by 4.4, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Eels 16th against Raiders 14th.

The market has Raiders favourites, Eels $2.22 and Raiders $1.67, with the line at Eels +3.5 and the total at 49.5.

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski has the whistle: 19.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.7 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Eels 5 · Raiders 5 |
| Last meeting | Eels 15-12 |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels at home | 6-6 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Eels 16th · Raiders 14th |
| Finals odds | Eels 0% · Raiders 0% |
| Market | Eels $2.22 · Raiders $1.67 |
| Line | Eels +3.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski · 19.2 pens/g · 0.7 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Eels

**Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski** — 75 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | 3W–4L | 43% |
| Raiders | 2W–4L | 33% |

Avg total: 41.7 pts · Home win %: 45% · Home bias: Leans away

Eels hold a 10-point edge: 3W–4L (43%) vs Raiders's 2W–4L (33%). Small sample (6 games for Raiders).

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 13.3 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7 against away. Eels get a +3.3 penalty advantage under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski vs Raiders's -1.1. 71% of his 38 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Eels | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 17.8pts | Avg Score | 18.8pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 22.0pts |
| -10.6pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 1783.0m | Run Metres | 2082.0m |
| 5.5 | Line Breaks | 6.0 |
| 309.0 | Tackles | 339.0 |
| 9.5 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Eels | R9 L · R10 W · R11 L · R13 L · R14 L | 17.8 |
| Raiders | R9 W · R10 L · R12 L · R13 W · R14 L | 18.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R20 | Raiders | 40 – 16 | Eels |
| 2025 | R6 | Eels | 12 – 50 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R5 | Raiders | 41 – 8 | Eels |
| 2023 | R11 | Raiders | 26 – 18 | Eels |
| 2022 | R27 | Eels | 40 – 4 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 14th there (2.08 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.31 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 12th there (1.31 conceded/game). Key man: Kris, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Eels | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.92/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 16th (weak)) | 0.69/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 2.15/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.31/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.08/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.85/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.31/g (def 12th) | 1.31/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.23/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Eels | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 12 | 8 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 139m/g | 187m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.6/g | 5.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.7% | 84.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Eels | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 37 | 26 · 32 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 683m/g | 764m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.8/g | 19.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.7% | 77.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Eels | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 17 | 10 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 477m/g | 529m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Centres 0.95/g (lg 0.72) +32% · Five-Eighths 0.32/g (lg 0.27) +19%
**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Centres 1.05/g (lg 0.72) +46% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 3 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/13g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/13g | 2/8g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/12g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 11' |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 15/35g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 6/18g | 20/26g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Joash Papalii | 5/8 | 4 in 13g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/18g | 21% | — | — |
| 7 | Ronald Volkman | HB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Luca Moretti | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/24g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/14g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/23g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 2 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/24g | 12% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/14g | 14% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 3 in 13g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/18g | 4/23g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Teancum Brown | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Harrison Edwards | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 8 in 13g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | WG | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 3 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 6/9g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/1g | 24% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/6g | 1/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Daine Laurie | 5/8 | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/16g | 6% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Ata Mariota | 2R | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 1/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Jayden Brailey | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Vena Patuki-Case | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Chevy Stewart | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Eels 1331 · Raiders 1433 · ELO difference: 102 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Eels | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 796 | 904 | Raiders +109 |
| Backs | 864 | 940 | Raiders +76 |
| Halves | 833 | 940 | Raiders +106 |
| Hooker | 853 | 967 | Raiders +115 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Eels |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Raiders predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-13 11:21 UTC (latest tip update)