# Dolphins v Roosters — NRL Round 15 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 48 – 10 Roosters

_Dolphins run riot over Roosters._

Half time: 12 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 59% / Roosters 41% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 12 June, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Isaiya Katoa (14' 1st), Herbie Farnworth (18' Tipped ⚡), Trai Fuller (44'), Kodi Nikorima (49'), Jeremy Marshall-King (52'), Connelly Lemuelu (56'), Bradley Schneider (63'), Tevita Naufahu (74' Tipped ⚡) · Roosters: Rex Bassingthwaighte (60'), Toby Rodwell (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 59% | Won |
| Roosters | 41% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.7 predicted → 38 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Dolphins vs Roosters Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 15, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 June 2026, 01:30 pm · Last updated: 12 June 2026, 09:53 pm_

Dolphins 48–10 Roosters in NRL Round 15 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dolphins 48, Roosters 10. Written down like that it looks like a hiding, and by the finish it was one. But rewind to the sheets and the gap isn't nearly so obvious: 53 per cent possession, a completion rate of 86 to 80, tackle breaks almost dead even at 35 to 34. Whatever decided this game, it wasn't a side that dominated every column. It was a side that turned modest edges into eight tries.

At the break it was 12-0, Dolphins having crossed twice through Isaiya Katoa in the 13th minute and Herbie Farnworth five minutes later. Not exactly cricket score, more a lead built on doing the basics slightly better. Then the third quarter happened. Trai Fuller in the 43rd, Kodi Nikorima at 48, Jeremy Marshall-King at 52 and Connelly Lemuelu at 56: four tries in thirteen minutes turned a competitive scoreline into a laugher. Rex Bassingthwaighte got one back for the Roosters at 59, but Bradley Schneider answered three minutes later, and by the time Toby Rodwell and Tevita Naufahu traded late tries the result had been decided for the best part of half an hour.

The line break count tells you where that scoring burst came from. Dolphins broke the line ten times to four, and every one of those extra opportunities is a chance the Roosters' defensive line simply didn't get to shut down. Run metres backed it up, 2,185 to 1,604, with 655 post-contact metres doing the unglamorous work of setting up field position the Roosters never really threatened.

Discipline mattered too. Two penalties conceded against five is the kind of gap that lets a team play with structure instead of scrambling, and with Katoa and Nikorima pulling the strings in the halves, that structure showed up as eight tries rather than four.

Strip out the tries and the two sides are startlingly close. Missed tackles were 34 to 35, errors were locked at nine apiece, and effective tackle percentage was 90.3 to 89.6, hardly the gulf a 38-point margin implies. The Roosters actually won the kicking battle, 942 metres to 845, which tells you they weren't overrun for territory. They just couldn't turn field position into points, and every time the Dolphins got a sniff, they finished it.

The pre-match numbers had this as competitive. Alphr's model gave Dolphins a 59 per cent chance and pegged the margin at 5.7, with a combined total of 41. The pick was right, the shape of the game wasn't: the actual margin blew out to 38, and the total ran 17 points hot at 58. Form lines had flagged some of this: Dolphins arrived on a five-game winning streak averaging 34.8 points and a margin of 21.2, while the Roosters' 3-2 form read included two losses in their last three. The hooker rating gap, 1097 to 1055 in the Dolphins' favour, lines up neatly with Marshall-King's try and the general control the Dolphins had around the ruck.

Model went 4 from 17 on the card, and covered the 5.5-point line with room to spare. Roosters leave Suncorp having matched the competition stats far better than the scoreboard admits, which won't count for much when the ladder gets updated.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 12 | 36 | 48 |
| Roosters | 0 | 10 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 80% |
| **2,185** | Run metres | 1,604 |
| **655** | Post-contact metres | 548 |
| **10** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **35** | Tackle breaks | 34 |
| **9** | Offloads | 4 |
| **90.3%** | Effective tackle % | 89.6% |
| **34** | Missed tackles | 35 |
| 9 | Errors | 9 |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 845 | Kick metres | **942** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 59% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.7 but the actual margin was 38 points. The game's 58 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 41. Dolphins led 12–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 38. The model went 4/17 on this match. Dolphins covered the 5.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (108 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 12 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Dolphins's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Dolphins have a 73% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 13' Try — Isaiya Katoa (Dolphins) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 18' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 43' Try — Trai Fuller (Dolphins) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 48' Try — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 52' Try — Jeremy Marshall-King (Dolphins) — 28-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 56' Try — Connelly Lemuelu (Dolphins) — 34-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 59' Try — Rex Bassingthwaighte (Roosters) — 36-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 62' Try — Bradley Schneider (Dolphins) — 40-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 70' Try — Toby Rodwell (Roosters) — 42-8 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 74' Try — Tevita Naufahu (Dolphins) — 46-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.48 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 59.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 6 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 59%, but Roosters stay live at 41%. Form leans Dolphins' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Roosters.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Recent Win Rate, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Dolphins by 5.7, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 26-12 in 2026 Round 26.

Dolphins have won 7 straight. Roosters have lost 3 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Dolphins 4, Roosters 5.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 5th against Roosters 3rd.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dolphins $1.48 and Roosters $2.66, with the line at Dolphins -5.5 and the total at 51.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 14.9 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Dolphins 3 · Roosters 4 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 26-12 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWW · 106 for, 48 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-4 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | WLLL · 68 for, 107 against |
| Roosters away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 5th · Roosters 3rd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Dolphins $1.48 · Roosters $2.66 |
| Line | Dolphins -5.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 14.9 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Todd Smith** — 108 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 8W–3L | 73% |
| Roosters | 8W–6L | 57% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Todd Smith officiates, Dolphins have won 8 of 11 games (73%), significantly stronger than Roosters's 8 from 14 (57%).

Dolphins get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Roosters's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 34.8pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Conceded | 14.4pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Margin | 7.2pts |
| 1885.0m | Run Metres | 1909.5m |
| 8.5 | Line Breaks | 4.5 |
| 311.5 | Tackles | 317.5 |
| 8.0 | Errors | 9.5 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R14 W | 34.8 |
| Roosters | R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R13 L · R14 W | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Roosters | 12 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R23 | Dolphins | 12 – 64 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R9 | Roosters | 36 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R22 | Dolphins | 34 – 40 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R24 | Roosters | 30 – 14 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.83 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 2nd there (0.83 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.17 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 7th there (1.08 conceded/game). Key man: Wong, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 8th) | 0.92/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.17/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.42/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.75/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.58/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.83/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 7th) | 2.17/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 5 | 11 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 208m/g | 200m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 88.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 43 · 31 | 39 · 29 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.5/g |
| Run Metres | 866m/g | 760m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20/g | 18.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.7% | 79.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 6 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 516m/g | 545m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.1% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.16) +19% · Fullbacks 0.47/g (lg 0.42) +12%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.16) +13%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trai Fuller | FB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/12g | 21% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 11 in 12g | 10/10g (1·1·0·0·2·1·3·0·1·1) | 7/12g | 37/80g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.58 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 29% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 4 in 5g | 10/10g (0·1·1·4·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 11/21g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 67% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 26/67g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | WG | 1 in 5g | 7/10g (2·0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 4/8g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/17g | 24/86g | 24% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 4/33g | 8% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 8 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/20g | 2/43g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 1 in 4g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/32g | 22% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/21g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 7/33g | 18% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 12 | Oryn Keeley | 2R | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/18g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/10g | 10% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 15 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/20g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Gilbert | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/22g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Ray Stone | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 2/32g | 10% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Ramsey | FB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 4/5g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 17% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Billy Smith | CE | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 3/4g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Reece Foley | CE | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 4 | Egan Butcher | Replacement | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 5 | Tommy Talau | WG | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/7g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 19% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | 5/8 | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 2/4g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 29% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/20g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/15g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 9/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Salesi Foketi | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Benaiah Ioelu | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Taylor Losalu | RES | no games | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/16g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Rex Bassingthwaighte | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 60' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1590 · Roosters 1586 · ELO difference: 4 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1067 | 1065 | Dolphins +2 |
| Backs | 1081 | 1094 | Roosters +13 |
| Halves | 1105 | 1097 | Dolphins +8 |
| Hooker | 1097 | 1055 | Dolphins +42 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-12 11:53 UTC (latest tip update)