Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 80% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 68 points. The game's 68 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 43. Panthers led 0–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 68. The model went 4/17 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (320 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 25 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Panthers's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Panthers have a 66% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.9 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 67% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
20%
Panthers
80%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Panthers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 324-point ELO rating advantage (1742 vs 1418). Recent form favours Panthers with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Panthers by 9.7 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.22
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.2%
Line / Spread
Wests Tigers +13.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Panthers 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | R8W R9L R10L R11L R13W older → newer | 19.8 |
Panthers | R8W R9W R10W R11W R13W | 28.0 |
Avg Conceded
34.4
Wests Tigers
14.0
Panthers
Avg Margin
-14.6
Wests Tigers
14.0
Panthers
Run Metres
1580
Wests Tigers
1923
Panthers
Line Breaks
4.4
Wests Tigers
6.6
Panthers
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersGrant Atkins
320 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Grant Atkins officiates, Panthers have won 25 of 38 games (66%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 12 from 29 (41%).
Avg Total
43.1 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
12.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.10
SB Away %
67%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 12.9 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Wests Tigers get a +2.5 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Panthers's +1.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
80%
Panthers predicted to win by 10 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -9.7
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.