# Wests Tigers v Panthers — NRL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 0 – 68 Panthers

_Panthers put Wests Tigers to the sword._

Half time: 0 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 20% / Panthers 80% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 07 June, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: none · Panthers: Paul Alamoti (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Nathan Cleary (11'), Freddy Lussick (17'), Thomas Jenkins (20' Tipped ⚡), Isaah Yeo (26'), Brian To'o (35' Tipped ⚡), Brian To'o (51' Tipped ⚡), Jack Cogger (56'), Izack Tago (58'), Lindsay Smith (67'), Thomas Jenkins (73' Tipped ⚡), Freddy Lussick (79')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 80% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 20% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 68 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:54 pm · Last updated: 7 June 2026, 03:49 pm_

Wests Tigers 0–68 Panthers in NRL Round 14 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Panthers led 0-4 inside six minutes and never once looked like being caught. By the 26th minute it was 0-28. By half-time it was 0-36. What followed in the second half wasn't a comeback attempt from Wests Tigers, it was Panthers deciding to keep going anyway, and the final margin came out at 68.

The scoreboard pressure built early and never let up. Paul Alamoti opened it in the 6th minute, Nathan Cleary followed in the 11th, Freddy Lussick in the 17th, Thomas Jenkins in the 19th and Isaah Yeo in the 26th. That's five tries before the half-hour mark. Brian To'o added a sixth just before the break to make it 0-34, and from there the game was a formality with 40 minutes still to play.

Wests Tigers didn't get the second half start they needed either. To'o scored again in the 51st minute, Jack Cogger in the 55th and Izack Tago in the 57th, three tries inside six minutes that turned a comfortable lead into an embarrassment. Lindsay Smith and a second from Jenkins followed, then Lussick closed it out in the 78th for his second. Twelve tries to the home side's none.

The stat sheet tells you exactly how that happened. Panthers ran 2,350 metres to Wests Tigers's 900, and backed it up with 608 post-contact metres against 304. That's a side getting go-forward at will and finishing every carry with something extra. Fifteen line breaks to one and 46 tackle breaks to 11 aren't the numbers of a contest, they're the numbers of a defence that had no answer. Wests Tigers missed 46 tackles. Panthers missed 11.

Possession sat at 64% for Panthers, and they made it count by completing at 87% against Wests Tigers's 75%. Fewer errors, seven to ten, more sets, cleaner execution. The one column Wests Tigers won was kick metres, 558 to 461, which speaks to a side that had the ball rarely and used the boot to at least find some territory. It didn't matter much when the tries were coming in bunches at the other end.

None of this should have been a surprise on paper. The positional ratings had Panthers ahead everywhere that counts, forwards by 302 points, halves by 370, and the form line backed it up: five straight wins for Panthers against a Wests Tigers outfit that had lost three of five and was conceding better than 34 points a game coming in. Alphr's model had Panthers at 80% to win and picked the right team. Where it fell over was the margin, tipping Panthers by 9.7 in a game that finished 68 points clear, and the total landed at 68 against a predicted 43. Sometimes the gap between good and outclassed is bigger than any rating system wants to admit.

For Wests Tigers there's not much to salvage here. The kicking game held up, the effort in defence didn't. Panthers, on the other hand, did everything the price suggested they might, then kept doing it long after the game was decided.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Panthers | 36 | 32 | 68 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 36% | Possession | **64%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **87%** |
| 900 | Run metres | **2,350** |
| 304 | Post-contact metres | **608** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **15** |
| 11 | Tackle breaks | **46** |
| 10 | Offloads | **14** |
| 85.7% | Effective tackle % | **90.8%** |
| 46 | Missed tackles | **11** |
| 10 | Errors | **7** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **1** |
| **558** | Kick metres | 461 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 80% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.7 but the actual margin was 68 points. The game's 68 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 43. Panthers led 0–36 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 68. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (320 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 25 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Panthers's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Panthers have a 66% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 11' Try — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 17' Try — Freddy Lussick (Panthers) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 19' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 26' Try — Isaah Yeo (Panthers) — 0-28 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 35' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 0-34 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 51' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 0-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 55' Try — Jack Cogger (Panthers) — 0-46 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 57' Try — Izack Tago (Panthers) — 0-52 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 67' Try — Lindsay Smith (Panthers) — 0-56 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 73' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 0-62 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 78' Try — Freddy Lussick (Panthers) — 0-66 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.22 (edge +2.2%) — model probability 79.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 10 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 80% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 324 ELO points clear, 1742 to 1418. Form leans Panthers' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Wests Tigers.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 9.7, with the two sides combining for about 43. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 38-10 in 2026 Round 27.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 10th against Panthers 1st.

The market has Panthers favourites, Wests Tigers $4.25 and Panthers $1.22, with the line at Wests Tigers +13.5 and the total at 49.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 17.8 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 38-10 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 95 for, 54 against |
| Panthers away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 10th · Panthers 1st |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Panthers 100% |
| Market | Wests Tigers $4.25 · Panthers $1.22 |
| Line | Wests Tigers +13.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 17.8 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Grant Atkins** — 320 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 12W–17L | 41% |
| Panthers | 25W–13L | 66% |

Avg total: 43.1 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Grant Atkins officiates, Panthers have won 25 of 38 games (66%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 12 from 29 (41%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Panthers get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Wests Tigers's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 19.8pts | Avg Score | 28.0pts |
| 34.4pts | Avg Conceded | 14.0pts |
| -14.6pts | Avg Margin | 14.0pts |
| 1579.6m | Run Metres | 1923.2m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 6.6 |
| 369.6 | Tackles | 369.4 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 10.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | R8 W · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R13 W | 19.8 |
| Panthers | R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R13 W | 28.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Panthers | 38 – 10 | Wests Tigers | Panthers 77% ✓ |
| 2025 | R21 | Panthers | 36 – 2 | Wests Tigers | not priced |
| 2025 | R14 | Wests Tigers | 14 – 18 | Panthers | not priced |
| 2024 | R7 | Panthers | 22 – 6 | Wests Tigers | not priced |
| 2023 | R9 | Panthers | 8 – 12 | Wests Tigers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.55 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 1st there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Skelton, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.17 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 9th there (1.27 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 18 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.09/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 9th) | 2.17/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.64/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.82/g (def 11th) | 2.17/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.55/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.83/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 6 | 11 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 242m/g | 202m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.2/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 32 | 43 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 723m/g | 878m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.4/g | 20.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.7% | 77.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 9 | 5 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 549m/g | 524m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.5/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 90.6% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.46) +2% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.13) -8% · Fullbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.42) -17%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.42) +50% · Props 0.24/g (lg 0.16) +50% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.27) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 6 in 8g | 8/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 5/9g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 2/3g | 6/6g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Sunia Turuva | CE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 6/10g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Heamasi Makasini | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/8g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 25% | — | — |
| 5 | Faaletino Tavana | WG | 3 in 4g | 3/4g (1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 75% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Jock Madden | HB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/15g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Mavrik Geyer | 2R | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Charlie Murray | LK | 0 in 2g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Latu Fainu | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/19g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Royce Hunt | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 9 in 12g | 8/10g (2·0·1·1·1·3·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 8/20g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 18 in 12g | 14/10g (4·2·2·2·2·0·0·0·2·0) | 4/2g | 10/13g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.53 AI 69% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 73' |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 7/13g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 1/2g | 10/15g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.76 AI 51% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·1) | 2/7g | 7/18g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 61% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' 51' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/4g | 8/24g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/13g | 5/21g | 32% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/23g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Freddy Lussick | HK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 17' 79' |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/17g | 12% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 7/35g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 4/18g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 1/20g | 8% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 14 | Jack Cogger | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/8g | 4% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/16g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Henry | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Izack Tago | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 8/18g | 24% | — | 🏉 58' |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1418 · Panthers 1742 · ELO difference: 324 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 937 | 1239 | Panthers +302 |
| Backs | 906 | 1210 | Panthers +304 |
| Halves | 897 | 1267 | Panthers +370 |
| Hooker | 921 | 1222 | Panthers +301 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Panthers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Panthers predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-07 05:49 UTC (latest tip update)