NRL | Round 14

Panthers are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Panthers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 324-point ELO rating advantage (1742 vs 1418). Recent form favours Panthers with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Panthers by 9.7 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Panthers to Win @1.22

Edge

+2.2%

Line / Spread

Wests Tigers +13.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Panthers 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Wests Tigers	R8W R9L R10L R11L R13W older → newer	19.8
Panthers	R8W R9W R10W R11W R13W	28.0

Avg Conceded

34.4

Wests Tigers

14.0

Panthers

Avg Margin

-14.6

Wests Tigers

14.0

Panthers

Run Metres

1580

Wests Tigers

1923

Panthers

Line Breaks

4.4

Wests Tigers

6.6

Panthers

Referee Indicator

Favours Panthers

Grant Atkins

320 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)

Wests Tigers

12W – 17L

41%

Panthers

25W – 13L

66%

When Grant Atkins officiates, Panthers have won 25 of 38 games (66%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 12 from 29 (41%).

Avg Total

43.1 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

12.9

Sin Bins / Gm

0.10

SB Away %

67%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams6.5

vs Away Teams6.4

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Wests Tigers

+2.5

Panthers

+1.3

Grant Atkins averages 12.9 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Wests Tigers get a +2.5 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Panthers's +1.3.

H2H History (Last 5)Panthers lead 4-1

Aug 2025WST 2 - 36 PEN

Jun 2025WST 14 - 18 PEN

Apr 2024WST 6 - 22 PEN

May 2023WST 12 - 8 PEN

Jul 2022WST 16 - 18 PEN

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WST

1418Overall1742

PEN

ELO difference: -324 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

937Forwards1239

PEN +302

906Backs1210

PEN +304

897Halves1267

PEN +370

921Hooker1222

PEN +301

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WST

Stat

PEN

2.0

Wins (Last 5)

5.0

19.8pts

Avg Score

28.0pts

34.4pts

Avg Conceded

14.0pts

-14.6pts

Avg Margin

14.0pts

1579.6m

Run Metres

1923.2m

4.4

Line Breaks

6.6

369.6

Tackles

369.4

10.6

Errors

10.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Panthers

Forward Pack12.0%

Panthers

Backline Quality10.0%

Panthers

Halves Control9.0%

Panthers

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Panthers

Referee Tendency7.0%

Tigers

Venue Advantage7.0%

Tigers

Model Confidence

80%

Panthers predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -9.7

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Dylan Edwards

backFair 1.692+ 22%

$2.15

+12.5% edge

Model

59%

Market

47%

Confidence

59%

Jahream Bula

backFair 1.922+ 17%

$2.35

+9.6% edge

Model

52%

Market

43%

Confidence

52%

Faaletino Tavana

backFair 2.092+ 14%

$2.30

+4.4% edge

Model

48%

Market

43%

Confidence

48%

Thomas Jenkins

backFair 1.442+ 33%

$1.53

+4.0% edge

Model

69%

Market

65%

Confidence

69%

Brian To'o

backFair 1.632+ 25%

$1.63

+0.0% edge

Model

61%

Market

61%

Confidence

61%

Paul Alamoti

backFair 2.822+ 7%

$2.60

-3.0% edge

Model

35%

Market

38%

Confidence

35%

Jeral Skelton

backFair 2.572+ 9%

$2.30

-4.5% edge

Model

39%

Market

43%

Confidence

39%

Casey McLean

backFair 1.952+ 16%

$1.76

-5.5% edge

Model

51%

Market

57%

Confidence

51%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Jahream Bula

backFair 4.162+ 17%

$12.00

+15.7% edge

Model

24%

Market

Confidence

24%

Faaletino Tavana

backFair 4.712+ 14%

$12.00

+12.9% edge

Model

21%

Market

Confidence

21%

Jeral Skelton

backFair 6.212+ 9%

$13.00

+8.4% edge

Model

16%

Market

Confidence

16%

Dylan Edwards

backFair 7.812+ 22%

$11.00

+3.7% edge

Model

13%

Market

Confidence

13%

Thomas Jenkins

backFair 5.892+ 33%

$7.00

+2.7% edge

Model

17%

Market

14%

Confidence

17%