NRL | Round 14

Storm are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Knights. Knights are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Storm counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Recent form favours Knights with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Storm. The margin model predicts Storm by 6.1 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Storm to Win @1.63

Edge

+8.6%

Line / Spread

Storm -4.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Storm 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 50.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Storm	R9L R10W R11W R12L R13W older → newer	25.2
Knights	R8L R9W R10W R11W R13W	32.4

Avg Conceded

17.2

Storm

25.2

Knights

Avg Margin

8.0

Storm

7.2

Knights

Run Metres

1705

Storm

1691

Knights

Line Breaks

5.4

Storm

7.8

Knights

Referee Indicator

Favours Storm

Ashley Klein

387 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)

Storm

40W – 25L

62%

Knights

16W – 25L

39%

When Ashley Klein officiates, Storm have won 40 of 65 games (62%), significantly stronger than Knights's 16 from 41 (39%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Avg Total

43.5 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

1.4

Sin Bins / Gm

0.13

SB Away %

75%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams0.8

vs Away Teams0.6

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Storm

+0.0

Knights

+0.0

Ashley Klein averages just 1.4 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow.

H2H History (Last 5)Storm lead 3-2

Jul 2025MEL 32 - 14 NEW

Jun 2024MEL 36 - 28 NEW

Mar 2024MEL 12 - 14 NEW

Aug 2023MEL 18 - 26 NEW

Apr 2022MEL 50 - 2 NEW

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Knights hold the ELO advantage (1498 vs 1481), but the market favours Storm (@1.63).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

MEL

1481Overall1498

NEW

ELO difference: -17 in favour of Knights

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1016Forwards1018

Even

1004Backs982

MEL +22

999Halves983

MEL +16

997Hooker982

MEL +15

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MEL

Stat

NEW

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

4.0

25.2pts

Avg Score

32.4pts

17.2pts

Avg Conceded

25.2pts

8.0pts

Avg Margin

7.2pts

1705.0m

Run Metres

1690.8m

5.4

Line Breaks

7.8

345.8

Tackles

328.4

11.6

Errors

12.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Knights

Forward Pack12.0%

Knights

Backline Quality10.0%

Knights

Halves Control9.0%

Knights

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Knights

Referee Tendency7.0%

Storm

Venue Advantage7.0%

Storm

Model Confidence

67%

Storm predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +6.1

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Dylan Lucas

forwardFair 1.312+ 43%

$2.90

+42.1% edge

Model

77%

Market

34%

Confidence

77%

Greg Marzhew

backFair 1.162+ 59%

$1.78

+30.3% edge

Model

86%

Market

56%

Confidence

86%

Dominic Young

backFair 1.212+ 52%

$1.77

+26.0% edge

Model

82%

Market

56%

Confidence

82%

Harry Grant

hookerFair 1.662+ 24%

$2.80

+24.7% edge

Model

60%

Market

36%

Confidence

60%

Fletcher Sharpe

halfFair 1.792+ 20%

$3.00

+22.6% edge

Model

56%

Market

33%

Confidence

56%

Moses Leo

backFair 1.432+ 34%

$1.94

+18.4% edge

Model

70%

Market

52%

Confidence

70%

Fletcher Hunt

backFair 1.982+ 16%

$2.75

+14.1% edge

Model

50%

Market

36%

Confidence

50%

Will Warbrick

backFair 1.522+ 29%

$1.69

+6.8% edge

Model

66%

Market

59%

Confidence

66%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Greg Marzhew

backFair 5.092+ 59%

$9.00

+8.5% edge

Model

20%

Market

11%

Confidence

20%

Dylan Lucas

forwardFair 7.012+ 43%

$14.00

+7.1% edge

Model

14%

Market

Confidence

14%

Moses Leo

backFair 6.352+ 34%

$11.00

+6.7% edge

Model

16%

Market

Confidence

16%

Dominic Young

backFair 5.842+ 52%

$9.00

+6.0% edge

Model

17%

Market

11%

Confidence

17%

Harry Grant

hookerFair 8.262+ 24%

$13.00

+4.4% edge

Model

12%

Market

Confidence

12%