# Storm v Knights — NRL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 32 – 30 Knights

_Storm thunder past Knights in a tight one._

Half time: 14 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 67% / Knights 33% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Fri, 05 June, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Stefano Utoikamanu (7' 1st), Manaia Waitere (23'), Will Warbrick (38' Tipped ⚡), Jahrome Hughes (45'), Moses Leo (55' Tipped ⚡), Trent Loiero (69') · Knights: Fletcher Sharpe (16' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Lucas (30' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Brown (41'), Jermaine McEwen (60'), Jacob Saifiti (72')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 67% | Won |
| Knights | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.1 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:54 pm · Last updated: 5 June 2026, 07:59 pm_

Storm 32–30 Knights in NRL Round 14 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two teams, two different jobs to do. Storm wanted the ball in hand and the clock ticking over quietly. Knights wanted the game loose and willing to have a crack from anywhere. Somehow both got exactly what they asked for, and Storm still came out the other side 32-30 winners at AAMI Park.

The completion rate tells you who was actually in control. Storm finished at 90%, the Knights down at 71%, and six errors against sixteen is not a close contest of discipline. Storm held 56% of the ball and used it to grind out 618 post-contact metres and 703 in kicks, the sort of numbers that come from patience rather than heroics.

Knights didn't play patience. They played ambition, and it showed where it counts most: nine line breaks to five, 15 offloads to 12. Every time Newcastle got a sniff they tried to make something of it, and often enough it worked. Problem is, ambition without the ball is a hard way to build a lead, and the Storm made sure they didn't have it often enough.

The scoreboard captures the tug of war well enough on its own. Utoikamanu opened it inside seven minutes for Storm, and from there it was arm-wrestle stuff: Sharpe hit back for the Knights, Waitere restored the Storm's edge, Lucas levelled it again before half-time, and Warbrick's try in the 37th minute was the last word before the break, Storm up 14-12. Brown snuck one back right on halftime to put Newcastle in front 16-14, so this was never a game that settled.

The second half kept the same shape. Hughes squared it up again at 45 minutes, Leo's try just after the hour put six points between them, McEwen hauled the Knights back within four, and Loiero's try at 69 minutes looked like it might be the sealer at 30-24. It nearly wasn't. Saifiti crossed in the 72nd to make it 32-28, and the Knights were still very much alive with the clock winding down.

What got Storm home wasn't a dominant spell, it was fewer costly moments. Effective tackle percentage actually favoured Newcastle, 88.4% to 84.2%, and they missed fewer tackles too. But none of that matters much when your own ball security lets you down sixteen times. Storm's forward pack rating (1016) shaded Newcastle's (1018) by nothing at all on paper, but the completion numbers did the heavy lifting instead.

Newcastle came into this off four straight wins and averaging 32.4 points a game, and they very nearly backed that form up, finishing with 30 anyway. Storm's form read was shakier, a 3-2 last five, but the model still had them favoured by 6.1 points and got the winner right at 67% probability. A two-point margin against a projected 6.1 isn't a bad miss at all, even if the shootout nature of it, 62 points against a predicted 44, was well beyond anything the model saw coming.

Storm controlled the ball. Knights controlled the chaos. On this occasion, control of the ball won out, by two points and not a fraction more.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 14 | 18 | 32 |
| Knights | 12 | 18 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **90%** | Completion rate | 71% |
| **1,823** | Run metres | 1,717 |
| **618** | Post-contact metres | 523 |
| 5 | Line breaks | **9** |
| **36** | Tackle breaks | 33 |
| 12 | Offloads | **15** |
| 84.2% | Effective tackle % | **88.4%** |
| **33** | Missed tackles | 36 |
| **6** | Errors | 16 |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |
| **703** | Kick metres | 502 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 6.1 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 62 points came in 18 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 6/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (387 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 18 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Storm's victory aligns with Ashley Klein's historical trend, Storm have a 62% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Stefano Utoikamanu (Storm) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 16' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 22' Try — Manaia Waitere (Storm) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 29' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 37' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 14-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 40' Try — Dylan Brown (Knights) — 14-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 45' Try — Jahrome Hughes (Storm) — 18-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 55' Try — Moses Leo (Storm) — 24-18 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 60' Try — Jermaine McEwen (Knights) — 26-22 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 69' Try — Trent Loiero (Storm) — 30-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 72' Try — Jacob Saifiti (Knights) — 32-28 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.63 (edge +8.6%) — model probability 67.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 6 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 67% to see off Knights. Form leans Knights' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Storm.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Storm by 6.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Storm to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Storm have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 32-30 in 2026 Round 14.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Storm 13th against Knights 4th.

The market has Storm favourites, Storm $1.63 and Knights $2.29, with the line at Storm -4.5 and the total at 50.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 14.6 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game, home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 8 · Knights 2 |
| Last meeting | Storm 32-30 |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm at home | 7-5 this season |
| Knights last 4 | WWWL · 72 for, 53 against |
| Knights away | 9-7 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 13th · Knights 4th |
| Finals odds | Storm 0% · Knights 100% |
| Market | Storm $1.63 · Knights $2.29 |
| Line | Storm -4.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 14.6 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Ashley Klein** — 387 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 40W–25L | 62% |
| Knights | 16W–25L | 39% |

Avg total: 43.5 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ashley Klein officiates, Storm have won 40 of 65 games (62%), significantly stronger than Knights's 16 from 41 (39%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 32.4pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Margin | 7.2pts |
| 1705.0m | Run Metres | 1690.8m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 7.8 |
| 345.8 | Tackles | 328.4 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | R9 L · R10 W · R11 W · R12 L · R13 W | 25.2 |
| Knights | R8 L · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R13 W | 32.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R19 | Knights | 14 – 32 | Storm |
| 2024 | R14 | Storm | 36 – 28 | Knights |
| 2024 | R3 | Knights | 14 – 12 | Storm |
| 2023 | R21 | Knights | 26 – 18 | Storm |
| 2022 | R8 | Knights | 2 – 50 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.08 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 17th there (2.42 conceded/game). Key man: Faalogo, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.17 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 15th there (1.62 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.77/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.62/g (def 15th (weak)) | 2.17/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.08/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.42/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.31/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.46/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 4 | 5 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 231m/g | 202m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85% | 85.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 35 · 39 | 41 · 29 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 689m/g | 734m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.2/g | 20.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.1% | 74.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 13 | 11 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 493m/g | 499m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 89.9% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.22) +50% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.09) +44% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.39/g (lg 1.27) +9% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.72) -3% · 2nd Rows 0.37/g (lg 0.46) -20%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 12 in 13g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/15g | 50% | — | — |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 10 in 13g | 8/10g (4·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 18/31g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.69 AI 66% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| 4 | Manaia Waitere | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 5 | Moses Leo | WG | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2·1) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 3/13g | 36/107g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 32/74g | 26% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/20g | 4% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 6 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/5g | 21/53g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 7/52g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Cooper Clarke | 2R | 2 in 13g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 17% | — | — |
| 12 | Ativalu Lisati | 2R | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/10g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 4/52g | 6% | — | 🏉 69' |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | RES | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/37g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Hetherington | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Josiah Pahulu | RES | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 5% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 14 in 12g | 11/10g (0·3·2·1·0·0·0·2·3·0) | 5/5g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 82% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/20g | 2/10g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Fletcher Hunt | CE | 7 in 12g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·3·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 50% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 15 in 11g | 14/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·3·5·1·1) | 3/6g | 0/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 41' |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 1/4g | 2% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·2) | 2/3g | 2/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Knights hold the ELO advantage (1498 vs 1481), but the market favours Storm (@1.63). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1481 · Knights 1498 · ELO difference: 17 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1016 | 1018 | Knights +2 |
| Backs | 1004 | 982 | Storm +22 |
| Halves | 999 | 983 | Storm +16 |
| Hooker | 997 | 982 | Storm +15 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Storm |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Storm predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-05 09:59 UTC (latest tip update)