NRL | Round 14

alphr.com.au

Sun 7 June4:05pm

CROCRO

SGISGI

Mon 8 June4:05pm

CBYCBY

PARPAR

CRO

Sharks

SGI

Dragons

OCEAN PROTECT STADIUM, SYDNEY • SUNDAY 7 JUNE, 4:05 PM AEST

Win Probability

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 12.0 was reasonable against the actual 22-point result. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 46, within 3 points. Sharks trailed 6–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 34–12. The model went 9/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. 70% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Sharks firmly in control (99%)

SHA34

99%80'1%

12DRA

← Dragons momentumMomentum +13Sharks momentum →

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

73%SharksFavourite

Sharks

73%

Dragons

27%

✨

AI Match Overview

Sharks are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Sharks ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sharks carry a 328-point ELO rating advantage (1560 vs 1232). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Sharks by 12.0 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sharks to Win @1.28

Winner ✓

Edge

-1.1%

✓

Line / Spread

Sharks -11.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Sharks 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 53.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Sharks	R8L R9W R10L R11W R13W older → newer	32.8
Dragons	R8L R10L R11L R12L R13W	14.8

Avg Conceded

26.0

Sharks

38.0

Dragons

Avg Margin

6.8

Sharks

-23.2

Dragons

Run Metres

1683

Sharks

1577

Dragons

Line Breaks

5.0

Sharks

2.0

Dragons

Referee Indicator

Balanced

Liam Kennedy

65 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)

Sharks

3W – 1L

75%

Dragons

8W – 3L

73%

Both sides have a similar record under Liam Kennedy, Sharks 3W–1L (75%) and Dragons 8W–3L (73%). Games average 46.5 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (4 games for Sharks).

Avg Total

46.5 pts

Home Win %

52%

Home Bias

Neutral

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

11.0

Sin Bins / Gm

0.34

SB Away %

70%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams5.3

vs Away Teams5.8

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Sharks

+3.0

Dragons

-1.0

Sharks get a +3.0 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Dragons's -1.0. 70% of his 10 career sin bins go to away teams.

H2H History (Last 5)Sharks lead 4-1

Aug 2025CRO 14 - 22 SGI

Jun 2025CRO 30 - 18 SGI

Sep 2024CRO 38 - 10 SGI

May 2024CRO 20 - 10 SGI

Jul 2023CRO 52 - 16 SGI

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CRO

1560Overall1232

SGI

ELO difference: +328 in favour of Sharks

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1033Forwards734

CRO +299

1022Backs716

CRO +306

1068Halves764

CRO +304

1049Hooker726

CRO +323

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CRO

Stat

SGI

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

1.0

32.8pts

Avg Score

14.8pts

26.0pts

Avg Conceded

38.0pts

6.8pts

Avg Margin

-23.2pts

1683.0m

Run Metres

1576.8m

5.0

Line Breaks

2.0

332.4

Tackles

370.6

10.8

Errors

12.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Sharks

Forward Pack12.0%

Sharks

Backline Quality10.0%

Sharks

Halves Control9.0%

Sharks

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Sharks

Referee Tendency7.0%

Sharks

Venue Advantage7.0%

Sharks

Model Confidence

73%

Sharks predicted to win by 12 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: +12.0

3/4 match predictions correct6/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Ronaldo MulitaloSharks

backFair 1.172+ 58%

$1.55

+21.1% edge

Model

86%

Market

65%

Confidence

86%

Setu TuDragons

backFair 1.532+ 29%

$1.76

+8.4% edge

Model

65%

Market

57%

Confidence

65%

Braydon TrindallSharks

halfFair 2.022+ 15%

$2.35

+6.9% edge

Model

49%

Market

43%

Confidence

49%

William KennedySharks

backFair 2.272+ 12%

$2.50

+4.0% edge

Model

44%

Market

40%

Confidence

44%

Moses SuliDragons

backFair 3.662+ 4%

$3.60

-0.5% edge

Model

27%

Market

28%

Confidence

27%

Valentine HolmesDragons

backFair 2.512+ 9%

$2.45

-0.9% edge

Model

40%

Market

41%

Confidence

40%

Mathew FeagaiDragons

backFair 4.152+ 3%

$2.20

-21.4% edge

Model

24%

Market

45%

Confidence

24%

Jesse Ramien

backFair 5.942+ 2%

$2.60

-21.6% edge

Model

17%

Market

38%

Confidence

17%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Setu TuDragons

backFair 4.172+ 29%

$9.50

+13.5% edge

Model

24%

Market

11%

Confidence

24%

Ronaldo MulitaloSharks

backFair 5.882+ 58%

$8.00

+4.5% edge

Model

17%

Market

13%

Confidence

17%

Valentine HolmesDragons

backFair 8.662+ 9%

$13.00

+3.9% edge

Model

12%

Market

Confidence

12%

Moses SuliDragons

backFair 13.812+ 4%

$20.00

+2.2% edge

Model

Market

Confidence

Mathew FeagaiDragons

backFair 15.972+ 3%

$13.00

-1.4% edge

Model

Market

Confidence