# Sharks v Dragons — NRL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 34 – 12 Dragons

_Sharks rally to devour Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 73% / Dragons 27% · Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 07 June, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Ronaldo Mulitalo (24' 1st Tipped 🎯), Briton Nikora (46'), William Kennedy (49' Tipped ⚡), Samuel Stonestreet (57'), Ronaldo Mulitalo (62' 1st Tipped 🎯), Braydon Trindall (74' Tipped ⚡) · Dragons: Valentine Holmes (26' Tipped ⚡), Mathew Feagai (38' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 73% | Won |
| Dragons | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.0 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:54 pm · Last updated: 7 June 2026, 05:53 pm_

Sharks 34–12 Dragons in NRL Round 14 at Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dragons did the disciplined things right. Fewer errors than their opposition, 11 to 14. A better completion rate, 78% to 77%. Just a single penalty conceded all match. On paper, that's the profile of a side that controls a game. On the scoreboard, it's a 22-point loss.

The gap is in what happened when the ball was actually in dispute. Sharks broke the line nine times to three, ran for 1,939 metres to 1,406, and offloaded sixteen times to Dragons' six. You can complete at 78% all day, but if the other mob is finding gaps and playing off the ball in the tackle, discipline with possession only gets you so far. Dragons' 918 kicking metres to 771 says they were happy to use the boot and defend their line. That plan lasted about half the match.

Because at the break, it was working. Dragons led 12-6, with Valentine Holmes and Mathew Feagai crossing either side of the 30-minute mark to answer an early Ronaldo Mulitalo try. Given the form both sides brought in, that scoreline wasn't mad. Dragons arrived on a lone win from their last five, averaging under 15 points a game. Getting to half-time in front of a side rated over 300 points higher across the forward pack, the backline and the halves was a decent outcome in itself.

Then the roof fell in. Briton Nikora crossed in the 46th minute, William Kennedy followed two minutes later, and by the 61st minute Mulitalo had his second to make it 28-12. Braydon Trindall added a sixth Sharks try at the 74th. Four converted tries in the middle third of the second half, and the contest was done. Dragons didn't manage another point after Feagai's in the 37th.

Individually, Mulitalo was the difference with a double either side of that burst, opening the scoring and closing it out for himself in the 61st. Five different players crossed for Sharks either side of him, which tells you the attack wasn't a one-man show, it was structural. Sharks' 565 post-contact metres against Dragons' 484 back that up: go-forward everywhere, not just out wide.

For Dragons, the honest read is that the linebreak count, three to nine, is where the game actually got lost, not the completion rate or the penalty count. You can be the tidier side and still get cut apart if you can't keep the opposition in front of you. Their tackle-break tally of 30 to Sharks' 28 shows they were competitive in the collision, but it never translated into points once Sharks found their attacking rhythm after half-time.

Alphr's model had Sharks at 73% and expected them by 12. The final margin, 22, blew past that, and the 46-point total landed within three of the predicted 49. Given Sharks came in with an average margin of plus-6.8 across their last five against Dragons' minus-23.2, the pre-match numbers were pointing at exactly this kind of result. The model just didn't back itself in quite hard enough on the margin.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 6 | 28 | 34 |
| Dragons | 12 | 0 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| 77% | Completion rate | **78%** |
| **1,939** | Run metres | 1,406 |
| **565** | Post-contact metres | 484 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 28 | Tackle breaks | **30** |
| **16** | Offloads | 6 |
| **89.2%** | Effective tackle % | 87.1% |
| 30 | Missed tackles | **28** |
| 14 | Errors | **11** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **1** |
| 771 | Kick metres | **918** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 12.0 was reasonable against the actual 22-point result. Total score prediction of 49 was close to the actual 46, within 3 points. Sharks trailed 6–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 34–12. The model went 9/17 on this match. Sharks covered the 11.5-point line. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Liam Kennedy's career average of 47.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 23' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 26' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 6-6 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 37' Try — Mathew Feagai (Dragons) — 6-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 46' Try — Briton Nikora (Sharks) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 48' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 57' Try — Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — 22-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 61' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 28-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 74' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 32-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.28 (edge -1.1%) — model probability 73.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 12 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 73% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 328 ELO points clear, 1560 to 1232. Form leans Sharks' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Dragons.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sharks by 12.0, with the two sides combining for about 49. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sharks have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Dragons took the most recent meeting 24-16 in 2026 Round 23.

Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four. Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Sharks 8th against Dragons 17th.

The market has Sharks favourites, Sharks $1.28 and Dragons $3.66, with the line at Sharks -11.5 and the total at 53.5.

Liam Kennedy has the whistle: 14.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 8 · Dragons 2 |
| Last meeting | Dragons 24-16 |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks at home | 9-4 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 8th · Dragons 17th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Dragons 0% |
| Market | Sharks $1.28 · Dragons $3.66 |
| Line | Sharks -11.5 · total 53.5 |
| Referee | Liam Kennedy · 14.2 pens/g · 0.4 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Liam Kennedy** — 65 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 3W–1L | 75% |
| Dragons | 8W–3L | 73% |

Avg total: 46.5 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Liam Kennedy, Sharks 3W–1L (75%) and Dragons 8W–3L (73%). Games average 46.5 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (4 games for Sharks).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Dragons get a +1.3 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Sharks's +0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 32.8pts | Avg Score | 14.8pts |
| 26.0pts | Avg Conceded | 38.0pts |
| 6.8pts | Avg Margin | -23.2pts |
| 1683.0m | Run Metres | 1576.8m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 2.0 |
| 332.4 | Tackles | 370.6 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | R8 L · R9 W · R10 L · R11 W · R13 W | 32.8 |
| Dragons | R8 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L · R13 W | 14.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Dragons | 24 – 16 | Sharks | Sharks 80% ✗ |
| 2025 | R23 | Dragons | 22 – 14 | Sharks | not priced |
| 2025 | R15 | Sharks | 30 – 18 | Dragons | not priced |
| 2024 | R25 | Dragons | 10 – 38 | Sharks | not priced |
| 2024 | R9 | Sharks | 20 – 10 | Dragons | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was wrong in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.55 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (2.25 conceded/game). Key man: Stonestreet, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 11th-ranked left edge attack (1.08 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 12th there (1.45 conceded/game). Key man: Holmes, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.55/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.45/g (def 12th) | 1.08/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.25/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.27/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 7th) | 0.58/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.58/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.27/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.55/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.67/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 9 | 3 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 3.3/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 183m/g | 157m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.9% | 88.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 31 | 19 · 48 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 722m/g | 658m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.6/g | 12.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.6/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.2% | 74.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 9 | 5 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 464m/g | 546m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 7.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.7% | 92.3% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.35/g (lg 0.22) +59% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.46) +37% · Fullbacks 0.57/g (lg 0.42) +36%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.1) +70% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.72) -1%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ocean Protect Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/11g | 3/5g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 49' |
| 2 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 2/5g | 39% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 4 | Mawene Hiroti | CE | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 2 in 2g | 12/10g (2·0·2·3·0·2·1·0·2·0) | 5/8g | 0/1g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.55 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 17% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 24' 62' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 6 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/6g | 4/5g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 49% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' |
| 7 | Niwhai Puru | HB | 1 in 1g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 33% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jayden Berrell | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 1/4g | 26% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·3·0·0·1) | 2/9g | 5/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | RES | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Billy Burns | INT | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 3/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Jesse Colquhoun | INT | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Setu Tu | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.76 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 27% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 4 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| 5 | Mathew Feagai | WG | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 24% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | 5/8 | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1560 · Dragons 1232 · ELO difference: 328 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1033 | 734 | Sharks +299 |
| Backs | 1022 | 716 | Sharks +306 |
| Halves | 1068 | 764 | Sharks +304 |
| Hooker | 1049 | 726 | Sharks +323 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Sharks predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-07 07:53 UTC (latest tip update)