# Sea Eagles v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 28 – 14 Rabbitohs

_Sea Eagles take flight against Rabbitohs._

Half time: 10 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 65% / Rabbitohs 35% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Thu, 04 June, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Jason Saab (23' Tipped ⚡), Lehi Hopoate (29' Tipped ⚡), Clayton Faulalo (49' Tipped ⚡), Ben Trbojevic (55'), Jason Saab (72' Tipped ⚡) · Rabbitohs: Keaon Koloamatangi (12' 1st), David Fifita (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 65% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.0 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sea Eagles vs Rabbitohs Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:54 pm · Last updated: 4 June 2026, 09:36 pm_

Sea Eagles 28–14 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 14 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Koloamatangi got the Rabbitohs off the park inside 11 minutes, and for a while it looked like the away side might make a night of it at Brookvale Oval. Four minutes later Clayton Faulalo was sent to the sin bin, leaving Manly a man short, but the Sea Eagles didn't crack. Jason Saab crossed in the 22nd while still down a player, Lehi Hopoate followed six minutes later, and an 0-4 deficit became a 10-8 lead Manly carried into the sheds.

It went from tight to comfortable in a hurry after the break. Faulalo, back on the field, scored himself in the 49th, then Ben Trbojevic crossed in the 55th to make it 20-8. That's a 12-point buffer built from two tries in six minutes, and it's the stretch that decided the match. Fifita hit back for South Sydney in the 59th to make it 22-12, but Saab's second try in the 72nd put it out of reach. Final score: 28-14.

The forward numbers explain how Manly built that lead without needing anything flashy. They went in rated 1114 to 958 up front, and it showed on the ground: 1,811 run metres to 1,305, and 605 post-contact metres to just 383. That's a side getting over the top of the tackler and squeezing out the extra metre on nearly every carry. Manly also busted 37 tackles to South Sydney's 29, which lines up with the tackle-break gap coming into the game.

Curiously, the Rabbitohs were the tidier side with the ball in hand. Ten errors to Manly's 13, and a completion rate of 77% to 75%. They also won the kicking battle by a distance, 611 metres to 507. None of it counted for much, because field position and clean footy are only worth something if you can finish the set, and South Sydney missed 37 tackles to Manly's 29. That's the sort of gap that turns good territory into someone else's tries.

Manly also held the ball more, 55% to 45%, and with a forward pack and hooker rating clearly in front (1112 to 990 at hooker), that extra possession was always going to hurt South Sydney more than it helped them chase the game.

The Rabbitohs arrived with the better scoring average across their last five, 30 points a game to Manly's 25.6, but their defence had been leaking at 24.4 points conceded compared to Manly's 15.6. Tonight sat closer to that defensive line than the attacking one, and it was missed tackles rather than any shortage of ball that did the damage.

Alphr's model had Manly favourites at 65%, with a projected margin of 6 and a total of 44. The actual margin blew out to 14, but the total landed at 42, close enough to call it a fair read. The model backed the favourite and backed the under, and got both right, even if it undersold just how far Manly would eventually pull away.

Line breaks finished locked at four apiece, a reminder that this wasn't won by one dazzling piece of footwork. It was won in the collisions, over and over, until the Rabbitohs simply couldn't hold the line.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| Rabbitohs | 8 | 6 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| 75% | Completion rate | **77%** |
| **1,811** | Run metres | 1,305 |
| **605** | Post-contact metres | 383 |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **7** | Offloads | 6 |
| 88.0% | Effective tackle % | **88.8%** |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| 13 | Errors | **10** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 10 |
| 507 | Kick metres | **611** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 65% probability. The predicted margin of 6.0 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. Sea Eagles led 10–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 6/17 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 3.5-point line. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (296 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 11' Try — Keaon Koloamatangi (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 15' Sin Bin — Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 22' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 4-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 28' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 10-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 49' Try — Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — 14-8 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 55' Try — Ben Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 20-8 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 59' Try — David Fifita (Rabbitohs) — 22-12 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 72' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 26-14 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.63 (edge +6.5%) — model probability 64.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 6 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 65% to see off Rabbitohs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 108 ELO points clear, 1576 to 1469. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Rabbitohs.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 6.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. Sea Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Sea Eagles took the most recent meeting 28-14 in 2026 Round 14.

Rabbitohs have put up 140 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 5th against Rabbitohs 6th.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Sea Eagles $1.63 and Rabbitohs $2.28, with the line at Sea Eagles -3.5 and the total at 50.5.

Rabbitohs come in fresher, 11 days between games against 5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 17.1 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 3 · Rabbitohs 7 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 28-14 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 6-6 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WLWW · 140 for, 93 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 5th · Rabbitohs 6th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Rabbitohs 100% |
| Market | Sea Eagles $1.63 · Rabbitohs $2.28 |
| Line | Sea Eagles -3.5 · total 50.5 |
| Rest gap | Sea Eagles 5d · Rabbitohs 11d |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 17.1 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Adam Gee** — 296 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 16W–22L | 42% |
| Rabbitohs | 15W–18L | 45% |

Avg total: 42.8 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Sea Eagles 16W–22L (42%) and Rabbitohs 15W–18L (45%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 121 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 30.0pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 10.0pts | Avg Margin | 5.6pts |
| 1697.8m | Run Metres | 1751.0m |
| 6.4 | Line Breaks | 7.2 |
| 324.0 | Tackles | 311.0 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | R9 L · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L | 25.6 |
| Rabbitohs | R8 W · R9 L · R10 W · R11 L · R12 L | 30.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R18 | Sea Eagles | 30 – 12 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R16 | Rabbitohs | 14 – 0 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R1 | Sea Eagles | 36 – 24 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R4 | Rabbitohs | 13 – 12 | Sea Eagles |
| 2022 | R8 | Rabbitohs | 40 – 22 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.58 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 14th there (1.55 conceded/game). Key man: Hopoate, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.09 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 7th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Graham, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.58/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.83/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.91/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.08/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.42/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.27/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.17/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 7th) | 2.09/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.82/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 5 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 162m/g | 150m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.1% | 84.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 36 · 21 | 41 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 750m/g | 729m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.1/g | 16.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 4.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.8% | 76.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 9 | 10 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 558m/g | 584m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.5/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 89.3% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.47/g (lg 0.27) +74% · Hookers 0.22/g (lg 0.14) +57% · Fullbacks 0.51/g (lg 0.43) +19%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Props 0.19/g (lg 0.16) +19% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.22) +5% · 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.46) +2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Faulalo | FB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 6/15g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·0·1) | 4/7g | 23/44g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.82 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 23' 72' |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/5g | 25/40g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 42/64g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 9 in 11g | 9/10g (0·0·2·1·2·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 12/23g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/23g | 8/35g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 3/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/53g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/23g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Kobe Hetherington | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 20/44g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 10/40g | 24% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 18/102g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Brandon Wakeham | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 2/26g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Jackson Shereb | RES | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Simione Laiafi | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 15 in 10g | 15/10g (1·2·1·1·1·1·2·2·3·1) | 13/18g | 2/5g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.59 AI 80% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 25% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Latrell Siegwalt | CE | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 5/9g | 1/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Edward Kosi | WG | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 10/15g | 3/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Ashton Ward | HB | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 8% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/9g | 2/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Jamie Humphreys | RES | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 11% | — | — |
| 16 | Euan Aitken | INT | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 7/11g | 3/5g | 22% | — | — |
| 17 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/26g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1576 · Rabbitohs 1469 · ELO difference: 108 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1114 | 958 | Sea Eagles +155 |
| Backs | 1038 | 951 | Sea Eagles +87 |
| Halves | 1059 | 950 | Sea Eagles +109 |
| Hooker | 1112 | 990 | Sea Eagles +123 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-04 11:36 UTC (latest tip update)