NRL | Round 14

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 65% probability. The predicted margin of 6.0 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 42, within 2 points. Sea Eagles led 10–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 6/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Adam Gee officiated this match (296 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 14 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Sea Eagles firmly in control (99%)

SEA28

99%80'1%

14RAB

← Rabbitohs momentumMomentum +11Sea Eagles momentum →

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

65%Sea EaglesFavourite

Sea Eagles

65%

Rabbitohs

35%

✨

AI Match Overview

Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 65%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 108-point ELO rating advantage (1576 vs 1469). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Rabbitohs. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 6.0 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sea Eagles to Win @1.63

Winner ✓

Edge

+6.5%

✓

Line / Spread

Sea Eagles -3.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Margin Band

Sea Eagles 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 50.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Sea Eagles	R9L R10W R11W R12W R13L older → newer	25.6
Rabbitohs	R8W R9L R10W R11L R12L	30.0

Avg Conceded

15.6

Sea Eagles

24.4

Rabbitohs

Avg Margin

10.0

Sea Eagles

5.6

Rabbitohs

Run Metres

1698

Sea Eagles

1751

Rabbitohs

Line Breaks

6.4

Sea Eagles

7.2

Rabbitohs

Referee Indicator

Balanced

Adam Gee

296 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)

Sea Eagles

16W – 22L

42%

Rabbitohs

15W – 18L

45%

Both sides have a similar record under Adam Gee, Sea Eagles 16W–22L (42%) and Rabbitohs 15W–18L (45%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Avg Total

42.8 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

14.0

Sin Bins / Gm

0.13

SB Away %

25%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams6.5

vs Away Teams7.6

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Sea Eagles

-1.5

Rabbitohs

-4.0

Adam Gee averages 14 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.5 against home vs 7.6 against away. Sea Eagles get a +-1.5 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Rabbitohs's -4.0.

H2H History (Last 5)Rabbitohs lead 3-2

Jul 2025MAN 30 - 12 SOU

Jun 2024MAN 0 - 14 SOU

Mar 2024MAN 36 - 24 SOU

Mar 2023MAN 12 - 13 SOU

Apr 2022MAN 22 - 40 SOU

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MAN

1576Overall1469

SOU

ELO difference: +108 in favour of Sea Eagles

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1114Forwards958

MAN +155

1038Backs951

MAN +87

1059Halves950

MAN +109

1112Hooker990

MAN +123

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MAN

Stat

SOU

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

2.0

25.6pts

Avg Score

30.0pts

15.6pts

Avg Conceded

24.4pts

10.0pts

Avg Margin

5.6pts

1697.8m

Run Metres

1751.0m

6.4

Line Breaks

7.2

324.0

Tackles

311.0

12.8

Errors

11.6

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Eagles

Forward Pack12.0%

Eagles

Backline Quality10.0%

Eagles

Halves Control9.0%

Eagles

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Eagles

Referee Tendency7.0%

Eagles

Venue Advantage7.0%

Eagles

Model Confidence

65%

Sea Eagles predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +6.0

3/4 match predictions correct3/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Tallis DuncanRabbitohs

forwardFair 1.722+ 22%

$3.35

+28.3% edge

Model

58%

Market

30%

Confidence

58%

Alex JohnstonRabbitohs

backFair 1.252+ 48%

$1.59

+17.4% edge

Model

80%

Market

63%

Confidence

80%

Campbell GrahamRabbitohs

backFair 2.342+ 11%

$3.15

+11.0% edge

Model

43%

Market

32%

Confidence

43%

Clayton FaulaloSea Eagles

backFair 2.072+ 14%

$2.18

+2.4% edge

Model

48%

Market

46%

Confidence

48%

Lehi HopoateSea Eagles

backFair 1.722+ 22%

$1.62

-3.4% edge

Model

58%

Market

62%

Confidence

58%

Jason SaabSea Eagles

backFair 2.082+ 14%

$1.82

-6.8% edge

Model

48%

Market

55%

Confidence

48%

Haumole Olakau'atuSea Eagles

forwardFair 2.842+ 7%

$2.35

-7.4% edge

Model

35%

Market

43%

Confidence

35%

Tolutau KoulaSea Eagles

backFair 2.502+ 9%

$2.00

-10.0% edge

Model

40%

Market

50%

Confidence

40%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Alex JohnstonRabbitohs

backFair 3.922+ 48%

$8.00

+13.0% edge

Model

25%

Market

13%

Confidence

25%

Tallis DuncanRabbitohs

forwardFair 7.322+ 22%

$15.00

+7.0% edge

Model

14%

Market

Confidence

14%

Lehi HopoateSea Eagles

backFair 6.682+ 22%

$8.50

+3.2% edge

Model

15%

Market

12%

Confidence

15%

Clayton FaulaloSea Eagles

backFair 8.872+ 14%

$11.00

+2.2% edge

Model

11%

Market

Confidence

11%

Campbell GrahamRabbitohs

backFair 11.432+ 11%

$15.00

+2.1% edge

Model

Market

Confidence