Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 26 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 3/17 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (369 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 16 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Roosters's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Roosters have a 54% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
45%
Roosters
55%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Raiders are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 91-point ELO rating advantage (1556 vs 1464). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Raiders.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.72
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Line / Spread
Raiders +2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Roosters 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | R8L R9W R10L R12L R13W older → newer | 21.6 |
Roosters | R8W R9W R10W R11L R13L | 28.8 |
Avg Conceded
23.4
Raiders
17.6
Roosters
Avg Margin
-1.8
Raiders
11.2
Roosters
Run Metres
1709
Raiders
1832
Roosters
Line Breaks
5.0
Raiders
4.4
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersGerard Sutton
369 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Roosters hold a 8-point edge: 32W–27L (54%) vs Raiders's 19W–22L (46%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
41.9 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
5.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.07
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Gerard Sutton averages just 5.4 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Penalises home teams more, 3.1 against home vs 2.3 against away. Roosters get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Raiders's -2.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
55%
Roosters predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: -0.9
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.