NRL | Round 14

Roosters hold the advantage at 55% win probability, though Raiders are far from out of this at 45%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 91-point ELO rating advantage (1556 vs 1464). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Raiders.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Roosters to Win @1.72

Edge

+0.0%

Line / Spread

Raiders +2.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Roosters 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Raiders	R8L R9W R10L R12L R13W older → newer	21.6
Roosters	R8W R9W R10W R11L R13L	28.8

Avg Conceded

23.4

Raiders

17.6

Roosters

Avg Margin

-1.8

Raiders

11.2

Roosters

Run Metres

1709

Raiders

1832

Roosters

Line Breaks

5.0

Raiders

4.4

Roosters

Referee Indicator

Favours Roosters

Gerard Sutton

369 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)

Raiders

19W – 22L

46%

Roosters

32W – 27L

54%

Roosters hold a 8-point edge: 32W–27L (54%) vs Raiders's 19W–22L (46%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Avg Total

41.9 pts

Home Win %

56%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

5.4

Sin Bins / Gm

0.07

SB Away %

50%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams3.1

vs Away Teams2.3

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Raiders

-2.0

Roosters

+0.0

Gerard Sutton averages just 5.4 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Penalises home teams more, 3.1 against home vs 2.3 against away. Roosters get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Raiders's -2.0.

H2H History (Last 5)Raiders lead 4-1

Jun 2025CAN 26 - 24 SYD

Sep 2024CAN 14 - 12 SYD

May 2024CAN 16 - 44 SYD

Jul 2023CAN 20 - 18 SYD

Jun 2022CAN 22 - 16 SYD

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAN

1464Overall1556

SYD

ELO difference: -91 in favour of Roosters

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

957Forwards1076

SYD +119

950Backs1055

SYD +105

980Halves1057

SYD +77

999Hooker1018

SYD +19

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAN

Stat

SYD

2.0

Wins (Last 5)

3.0

21.6pts

Avg Score

28.8pts

23.4pts

Avg Conceded

17.6pts

-1.8pts

Avg Margin

11.2pts

1709.4m

Run Metres

1831.8m

5.0

Line Breaks

4.4

360.4

Tackles

337.4

10.2

Errors

13.2

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Roosters

Forward Pack12.0%

Roosters

Backline Quality10.0%

Roosters

Halves Control9.0%

Roosters

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Roosters

Referee Tendency7.0%

Raiders

Venue Advantage7.0%

Raiders

Model Confidence

55%

Roosters predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: -0.9

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Robert Toia

backFair 1.702+ 22%

$2.40

+17.0% edge

Model

59%

Market

42%

Confidence

59%

Kaeo Weekes

backFair 1.622+ 25%

$2.02

+12.4% edge

Model

62%

Market

50%

Confidence

62%

Hugo Savala

backFair 1.902+ 17%

$2.40

+11.0% edge

Model

53%

Market

42%

Confidence

53%

James Tedesco

backFair 1.802+ 20%

$1.96

+4.5% edge

Model

56%

Market

51%

Confidence

56%

Ethan Strange

halfFair 2.642+ 8%

$2.90

+3.4% edge

Model

38%

Market

34%

Confidence

38%

Savelio Tamale

backFair 2.072+ 14%

$2.02

-1.2% edge

Model

48%

Market

50%

Confidence

48%

Hudson Young

forwardFair 3.202+ 5%

$3.05

-1.6% edge

Model

31%

Market

33%

Confidence

31%

Xavier Savage

backFair 2.152+ 13%

$1.91

-5.8% edge

Model

47%

Market

52%

Confidence

47%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Kaeo Weekes

backFair 5.062+ 25%

$10.00

+9.8% edge

Model

20%

Market

10%

Confidence

20%

Xavier Savage

backFair 7.792+ 13%

$11.00

+3.7% edge

Model

13%

Market

Confidence

13%

Savelio Tamale

backFair 7.402+ 14%

$10.00

+3.5% edge

Model

14%

Market

10%

Confidence

14%

Ethan Strange

halfFair 10.282+ 8%

$15.00

+3.1% edge

Model

10%

Market

Confidence

10%

Robert Toia

backFair 9.092+ 22%

$12.00

+2.7% edge

Model

11%

Market

Confidence

11%