# Raiders v Roosters — NRL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 0 – 26 Roosters

_Roosters crow over Raiders._

Half time: 0 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 45% / Roosters 55% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Fri, 05 June, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: none · Roosters: Mark Nawaqanitawase (11' 1st), Hugo Savala (24' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (32' 1st), Reece Robson (35'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (49' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 55% | Won |
| Raiders | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.9 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Raiders vs Roosters Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:54 pm · Last updated: 5 June 2026, 10:11 pm_

Raiders 0–26 Roosters in NRL Round 14 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six line breaks to one. That's the number that tells you Canberra never had a grip on this game, and the scoreboard backed it up: Roosters 26, Raiders 0 at GIO Stadium.

The Roosters didn't need to find the line early and often, they just needed one clean crack to turn into points, and they got five of them. Mark Nawaqanitawase started the rout in the 10th minute, added a second in the 31st, then completed his hat-trick in the 48th. Hugo Savala and Reece Robson chimed in either side of the break to push it to 0-22 by half-time, and from there it was about not letting Canberra back into it rather than piling on more.

The line break count explains itself once you look at what came with it. Roosters ran for 1,910 metres to the Raiders' 1,632, and made 721 post-contact metres against 552. That's a forward pack and a backline finding soft shoulders all night, which tracks with the pre-match numbers: the Roosters forwards rated at 1,076 to Canberra's 957, and the backs at 1,055 to 950. Ratings on paper don't always show up on the field, but this time they did, almost point for point.

Territory told the same story. The Roosters kicked for 902 metres to the Raiders' 541, which meant Canberra spent most of the night starting sets deep in their own end and trying to work their way out with a completion rate of 73%. The Roosters completed at 80%. When one side controls the boot and finishes sets at a higher clip, the other side is chasing field position all night, and that's exactly what Canberra were doing.

The Raiders weren't hopeless everywhere. They actually won the discipline count, giving away four penalties to the Roosters' six, and they offloaded the ball 17 times to the Roosters' nine, a sign they were at least trying to play through the line. Their effective tackle percentage, 88.4% to 85.7%, was better too. None of it mattered without go-forward or completions, and 34 missed tackles against just 30 line break assists tells you where the tries actually came from.

Form lines had this one coming. Canberra arrived with an average margin of minus 1.8 over their last five, the Roosters at plus 11.2, and the gap on the park matched the gap on the sheet. Sydney's halves and hooker were rated stronger across the board pre-match, and it was Robson and the spine pulling the strings while Nawaqanitawase did the finishing.

Alphr's model had the Roosters winning at 55% and got the result right, but the margin read was well off, tipped at 0.9 points against an actual 26. The total was pegged at 45, and the game landed 19 points under that, which at least kept the under 49.5 call alive. Three from seventeen on the finer detail is a rough night for the model, even with the top-line pick correct. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Roosters | 22 | 4 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 73% | Completion rate | **80%** |
| 1,632 | Run metres | **1,910** |
| 552 | Post-contact metres | **721** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| **17** | Offloads | 9 |
| **88.4%** | Effective tackle % | 85.7% |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| 14 | Errors | **13** |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 541 | Kick metres | **902** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.9 but the actual margin was 26 points. The game's 26 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 45. The model went 3/17 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (369 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 16 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Roosters's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Roosters have a 54% win rate under this referee. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed. 65% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 24' Try — Hugo Savala (Roosters) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 31' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 34' Try — Reece Robson (Roosters) — 0-20 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 48' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 0-26 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.72 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 55.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 1 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 55%, but Raiders stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 91 ELO points clear, 1556 to 1464. Form leans Roosters' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Raiders.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Roosters have lost 3 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Raiders 3, Roosters 5.

On the ladder it's Raiders 12th against Roosters 3rd.

The market has Roosters favourites, Raiders $2.13 and Roosters $1.72, with the line at Raiders +2.5 and the total at 49.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 16.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.7 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 5 · Roosters 5 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 26-0 |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders at home | 5-7 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | WLLL · 68 for, 107 against |
| Roosters away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 12th · Roosters 3rd |
| Finals odds | Raiders 0% · Roosters 100% |
| Market | Raiders $2.13 · Roosters $1.72 |
| Line | Raiders +2.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 16.2 pens/g · 0.7 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Gerard Sutton** — 369 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 19W–22L | 46% |
| Roosters | 32W–27L | 54% |

Avg total: 41.9 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Roosters hold a 8-point edge: 32W–27L (54%) vs Raiders's 19W–22L (46%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Raiders get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Roosters's -1.2. 65% of his 182 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 28.8pts |
| 23.4pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| -1.8pts | Avg Margin | 11.2pts |
| 1709.4m | Run Metres | 1831.8m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 360.4 | Tackles | 337.4 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 13.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | R8 L · R9 W · R10 L · R12 L · R13 W | 21.6 |
| Roosters | R8 W · R9 W · R10 W · R11 L · R13 L | 28.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R13 | Roosters | 24 – 26 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R26 | Roosters | 12 – 14 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R12 | Raiders | 16 – 44 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R17 | Roosters | 18 – 20 | Raiders |
| 2022 | R13 | Raiders | 22 – 16 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 10th there (1.73 conceded/game). Key man: Weekes, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.09 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 7th there (1.08 conceded/game). Key man: Toia, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 10th) | 0.91/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.42/g (att 12th) · concedes 2.17/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.82/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.73/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 1.42/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 7th) | 2.09/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 14 | 11 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 189m/g | 193m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.8/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.5% | 88.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 28 | 35 · 29 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 2.4/g |
| Run Metres | 780m/g | 753m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.4/g | 18.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.1% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 10 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 520m/g | 546m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 9.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 90.7% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.27) +41% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% · Fullbacks 0.48/g (lg 0.43) +12%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.23/g (lg 0.17) +35% · Centres 0.95/g (lg 0.72) +32% · Five-Eighths 0.32/g (lg 0.27) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 8 in 12g | 7/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 15/31g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 8/14g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Daine Laurie | CE | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 19/55g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/4g | 20/34g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 12/27g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 2 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/10g | 6/52g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 7/64g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 10/101g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 25/67g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 31% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 8/22g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Jayden Brailey | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/16g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/39g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/30g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jed Stuart | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/15g | 16% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 11/19g | 5/7g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Billy Smith | WG | 2 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 32% | — | — |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 53% ✓ Scored | 🏉 24' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·2·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/24g | 3/10g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | INT | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 1/2g | 16% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 3/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1464 · Roosters 1556 · ELO difference: 91 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 957 | 1076 | Roosters +119 |
| Backs | 950 | 1055 | Roosters +105 |
| Halves | 980 | 1057 | Roosters +77 |
| Hooker | 999 | 1018 | Roosters +19 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Raiders |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Roosters predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-r14-raiders-v-roosters
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-06-05 12:11 UTC (latest tip update)