Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 58% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.2 but the actual margin was 26 points. Dolphins led 10–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 6/17 on this match. The under 55.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (48 career games). The 54-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Dolphins's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Dolphins have a 75% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
42%
Dolphins
58%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Cowboys are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Dolphins carry a 60-point ELO rating advantage (1556 vs 1496). Recent form favours Dolphins with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 2.2 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.63
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.8%
Line / Spread
Cowboys +3.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Dolphins 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 55.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | R9W R10L R11W R12W R13L older → newer | 23.6 |
Dolphins | R8L R9W R10W R11W R12W | 30.4 |
Avg Conceded
20.2
Cowboys
14.8
Dolphins
Avg Margin
3.4
Cowboys
15.6
Dolphins
Run Metres
1780
Cowboys
1795
Dolphins
Line Breaks
5.4
Cowboys
6.6
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours DolphinsWyatt Raymond
48 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Dolphins have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 2 from 4 (50%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Cowboys).
Avg Total
50.0 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.36
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Dolphins get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Cowboys's +0.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Dolphins predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: -2.2
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.