# Cowboys v Dolphins — NRL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 14 – 40 Dolphins

_Dolphins put Cowboys to the sword._

Half time: 10 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 42% / Dolphins 58% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Sat, 06 June, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Murray Taulagi (14' Tipped ⚡), Tom Chester (20'), Tom Chester (51') · Dolphins: Selwyn Cobbo (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (29' Tipped ⚡), Isaiya Katoa (33'), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (47' Tipped ⚡), Kurt Donoghoe (66'), Selwyn Cobbo (71' 1st Tipped ⚡), Thomas Flegler (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 58% | Won |
| Cowboys | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:54 pm · Last updated: 6 June 2026, 07:28 pm_

Cowboys 14–40 Dolphins in NRL Round 14 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six points separated the sides at the break, and that scoreline flattered Cowboys more than the stats did. Dolphins led 16-10 at half-time despite the hosts matching them try for try early on, and by full-time the margin had blown out to 26, Dolphins winning 40-14 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium.

The first half was actually a contest. Selwyn Cobbo opened the scoring for Dolphins inside five minutes, but Cowboys hit back through Murray Taulagi and then Tom Chester to lead 8-6 at the 19th minute mark. That was as good as it got for the home side. Jamayne Isaako levelled things at 10-10, and Isaiya Katoa's try just four minutes later put Dolphins in front for good at 16-10.

Whatever happened in that break, Cowboys had no answer for it. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow scored early in the second half to push the lead to ten, Chester grabbed his second for Cowboys to keep it within eight, and then Dolphins simply took over. Kurt Donoghoe crossed in the 66th minute, Cobbo bagged his second four minutes after that, and Thomas Flegler put the finishing touch on it in the 78th. Three tries in twelve minutes, none of them answered.

The stat sheet explains why the door stayed open the whole way. Dolphins ran for 2,050 metres to the Cowboys' 1,363, and 711 of those came after contact against just 502 for the home side. That's a forward pack doing exactly what its 1095-to-964 rating suggested it might. Dolphins broke 49 tackles to 18 and threw the ball around with 15 offloads to five, numbers that turn ordinary field position into real damage.

Defence was where it really came apart for Cowboys. They missed 49 tackles to Dolphins' 18, and an effective tackle rate of 85.0% against 91.8% tells the same story from a different angle. Seven line breaks to four is a bad gap against a side that only needs one or two to finish the set. Cowboys actually shaded the kicking game, 603 metres to 535, and matched Dolphins on errors at 11 apiece, so it wasn't a discipline problem. It was a physical one.

Individually, Cobbo was the difference with two tries, and Chester's double for Cowboys was one of the few genuine positives on the day. Everywhere else the gap in class showed, halves rated 1092 to 1018 and hookers 1047 to 980 in Dolphins' favour, and both showed up when it mattered.

Form lines pointed this way before kick-off. Dolphins arrived on a four-game winning run averaging 30.4 points a game and conceding just 14.8, while Cowboys had lost two of their last five and were leaking 20.2 a game themselves. Alphr's model had Dolphins favourites at 58% and got the winner right, but the margin call of 2.2 points wasn't close to the 26-point reality. The under on 55.5 total points landed. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 10 | 4 | 14 |
| Dolphins | 16 | 24 | 40 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| 78% | Completion rate | **83%** |
| 1,363 | Run metres | **2,050** |
| 502 | Post-contact metres | **711** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 18 | Tackle breaks | **49** |
| 5 | Offloads | **15** |
| 85.0% | Effective tackle % | **91.8%** |
| 49 | Missed tackles | **18** |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **603** | Kick metres | 535 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 58% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.2 but the actual margin was 26 points. Dolphins led 10–16 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 6/17 on this match. The under 55.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (48 career games). The 54-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Dolphins's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Dolphins have a 75% win rate under this referee. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 14' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 19' Try — Tom Chester (Cowboys) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 29' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 10-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 33' Try — Isaiya Katoa (Dolphins) — 10-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 47' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 10-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 51' Try — Tom Chester (Cowboys) — 14-22 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 66' Try — Kurt Donoghoe (Dolphins) — 14-26 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 70' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 14-32 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 78' Try — Thomas Flegler (Dolphins) — 14-38 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.63 (edge -0.8%) — model probability 57.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 2 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 58%, but Cowboys stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 60 ELO points clear, 1556 to 1496. Form leans Dolphins' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Cowboys.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 2.2, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 6 of the last 8 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 36-16 in 2026 Round 20.

Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Cowboys 3, Dolphins 5.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 9th against Dolphins 7th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Cowboys $2.28 and Dolphins $1.63, with the line at Cowboys +3.5 and the total at 55.5.

Dolphins come in fresher, 15 days between games against 6.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 12.6 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.7 sin bins a game, home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Cowboys 2 · Dolphins 6 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 36-16 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWLL · 100 for, 118 against |
| Cowboys at home | 7-5 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 9th · Dolphins 7th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Cowboys $2.28 · Dolphins $1.63 |
| Line | Cowboys +3.5 · total 55.5 |
| Rest gap | Cowboys 6d · Dolphins 15d |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 12.6 pens/g · 0.7 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Wyatt Raymond** — 48 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 2W–2L | 50% |
| Dolphins | 3W–1L | 75% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Dolphins have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 2 from 4 (50%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Cowboys).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 30.4pts |
| 20.2pts | Avg Conceded | 14.8pts |
| 3.4pts | Avg Margin | 15.6pts |
| 1779.8m | Run Metres | 1795.4m |
| 5.4 | Line Breaks | 6.6 |
| 343.4 | Tackles | 342.4 |
| 11.2 | Errors | 11.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | R9 W · R10 L · R11 W · R12 W · R13 L | 23.6 |
| Dolphins | R8 L · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W · R12 W | 30.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Dolphins | 36 – 16 | Cowboys | Dolphins 57% ✓ |
| 2025 | R20 | Dolphins | 43 – 24 | Cowboys | not priced |
| 2025 | R15 | Cowboys | 4 – 58 | Dolphins | not priced |
| 2024 | R9 | Cowboys | 26 – 28 | Dolphins | not priced |
| 2024 | R1 | Dolphins | 18 – 43 | Cowboys | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.62 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 6th there (1.09 conceded/game). Key man: Taulagi, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.91 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 8th there (1.23 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.62/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.46/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.18/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.09/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.69/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.69/g (def 10th) | 1.18/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.15/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.23/g (def 8th) | 1.91/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 13 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 217m/g | 210m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.5/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 36 · 34 | 39 · 28 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 801m/g | 854m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.9/g | 19.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.1% | 83.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 7 | 5 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 523m/g | 514m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 91% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.16) +19% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.29/g (lg 0.16) +81% · Five-Eighths 0.4/g (lg 0.27) +48% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 24/74g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 51% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Zac Laybutt | WG | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/4g | 4/18g | 23% | — | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 9/24g | 40% | — | — |
| 4 | Tom Chester | CE | 4 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 4/13g | 29% | — | 🏉 20' 51' |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 9 in 8g | 11/10g (0·2·2·0·2·1·1·0·3·0) | 5/4g | 35/54g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| 6 | Liam Sutton | 5/8 | 2 in 5g | 2/5g (0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 40% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Clifford | HB | 5 in 13g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 12/34g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Mikaele | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/22g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 3/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/57g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Heilum Luki | 2R | 7 in 13g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 12/35g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Sam McIntyre | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/29g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/48g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Soni Luke | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Griffin Neame | INT | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/53g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Matthew Lodge | RES | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 8/57g | 8% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 4/4g | 12/26g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 47' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 10 in 11g | 9/10g (0·1·1·0·0·2·1·3·0·1) | 12/15g | 8/6g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.68 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 4 in 4g | 11/10g (1·0·1·1·4·0·2·1·1·0) | 5/4g | 4/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 74% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 1/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.95 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·2·1) | 2/6g | 2/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 65% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 71' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/20g | 1/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 8% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 9 | Max Plath | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/22g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/17g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 1 in 3g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 15 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 8% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 16 | Tom Gilbert | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/25g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Ray Stone | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1496 · Dolphins 1556 · ELO difference: 60 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 964 | 1095 | Dolphins +131 |
| Backs | 969 | 1021 | Dolphins +53 |
| Halves | 1018 | 1092 | Dolphins +75 |
| Hooker | 980 | 1047 | Dolphins +67 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-06 09:28 UTC (latest tip update)