AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
62%
Eels
38%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 2 of 7 key factors including Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 6.4 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.52
Edge
-0.9%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -5.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | R9L R10L R11L R12W R13L older → newer | 17.2 |
Eels | R8L R9L R10W R11L R13L | 19.0 |
Avg Conceded
30.4
Bulldogs
32.2
Eels
Avg Margin
-13.2
Bulldogs
-13.2
Eels
Run Metres
1723
Bulldogs
1642
Eels
Line Breaks
4.6
Bulldogs
4.2
Eels
Referee Indicator
Favours EelsTodd Smith
107 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Eels hold a 12-point edge: 9W–7L (56%) vs Bulldogs's 4W–5L (44%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.3
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Bulldogs get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Eels's -1.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +6.4
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.