# Bulldogs v Eels — NRL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 14 – 12 Eels

_Bulldogs muzzle a gallant Eels._

Half time: 0 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 62% / Eels 38% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Mon, 08 June, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Sitili Tupouniua (48' 1st), Stephen Crichton (50' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Tallyn Da Silva (59'), Joash Papalii (62')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 62% | Won |
| Eels | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.4 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Bulldogs vs Eels Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 14, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:54 pm · Last updated: 8 June 2026, 05:58 pm_

Bulldogs 14–12 Eels in NRL Round 14 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nil-all at the break at Accor Stadium. Nothing in it, nothing on the board, and if you'd wandered off for a pie you'd have missed the entire contest up to that point.

Then the second half started and the Bulldogs decided to actually play footy. Sitili Tupouniua opened it up in the 47th minute, Stephen Crichton followed three minutes later, and just like that it was 10-0 and the Eels were staring at a hole they hadn't seen coming. Final score: Bulldogs 14, Eels 12. Tight in the ledger, not so tight in how it actually felt for most of the second half.

The Eels didn't just fold, to their credit. Tallyn Da Silva got one back in the 59th, Joash Papalii followed two minutes later, and suddenly it was 12-10 with the game wide open again. But the Bulldogs had banked enough in that opening burst to hold on, and hold on they did.

Look at the pack numbers and the result stops being a surprise. Despite the Eels rating higher for forwards coming in, 868 to 829, it was the Bulldogs doing the damage where it counts: 2,006 run metres to 1,518, and 675 post-contact metres to 507. That's not a form line, that's blokes getting over the advantage line and then dragging defenders another five metres for good measure.

The line break count tells the same story, 6 to 4 in the Bulldogs' favour, and the tackle bust numbers are where it gets ugly for Parramatta: 54 to 29. Add 12 offloads to the Eels' 6 and you've got a Bulldogs outfit that kept the ball alive and kept the line moving, while the Eels' defence missed 54 tackles to the Bulldogs' 29. That's the sort of differential that turns a nil-all arm-wrestle into a double-figure margin inside twenty minutes.

Completion rate favoured the home side too, 76% to 73%, with fewer errors, 12 to 14, and only a single penalty conceded against the Eels' three. Discipline and ball control, unglamorous stuff, but it's why the Bulldogs were able to build phases and eventually cash them in.

The one column the Eels won clearly was territory. Kicking for 955 metres to the Bulldogs' 749, Parramatta controlled field position for long stretches. Didn't matter much when the sets that counted kept ending in Bulldogs tries.

Alphr's model had this one right in shape if not quite in size, tipping the Bulldogs at 62% with a predicted margin of 6.4. The actual margin was 2, so the pick landed and the ballpark wasn't far off either. The total was where it missed badly, tipping 46 combined points against an actual 26, a defensive arm-wrestle the model didn't quite see coming given both sides' form lines sat around the high teens and thirty-plus conceded. Overall the model went 4 from 17 on this one, but it nailed the margin band and got the under 50.5 total right. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 0 | 14 | 14 |
| Eels | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **76%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| **2,006** | Run metres | 1,518 |
| **675** | Post-contact metres | 507 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **54** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **12** | Offloads | 6 |
| **89.5%** | Effective tackle % | 83.3% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 54 |
| **12** | Errors | 14 |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 3 |
| 749 | Kick metres | **955** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 6.4 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 26 points came in 20 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 4/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (107 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 20 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Bulldogs bucked the trend, Eels historically win 56% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 47' Try — Sitili Tupouniua (Bulldogs) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 50' Try — Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 59' Try — Tallyn Da Silva (Eels) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 61' Try — Joash Papalii (Eels) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.52 (edge -0.9%) — model probability 61.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 6 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 62%, but Eels stay live at 38%.

On paper Eels shade it, ahead on 2 of 7 factors including Forward Pack and Referee Tendency. The model still sides with Bulldogs, which says Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Bulldogs by 6.4, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Eels are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 14th against Eels 15th.

The market has Bulldogs favourites, Bulldogs $1.52 and Eels $2.53, with the line at Bulldogs -5.5 and the total at 50.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 12.3 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 5 · Eels 5 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 14-12 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 7-5 this season |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 14th · Eels 15th |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 0% · Eels 0% |
| Market | Bulldogs $1.52 · Eels $2.53 |
| Line | Bulldogs -5.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 12.3 pens/g · 0.3 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Eels

**Todd Smith** — 107 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 4W–5L | 44% |
| Eels | 9W–7L | 56% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Leans home

Eels hold a 12-point edge: 9W–7L (56%) vs Bulldogs's 4W–5L (44%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Eels get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Bulldogs's -1.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 17.2pts | Avg Score | 19.0pts |
| 30.4pts | Avg Conceded | 32.2pts |
| -13.2pts | Avg Margin | -13.2pts |
| 1722.6m | Run Metres | 1641.8m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 364.2 | Tackles | 321.6 |
| 10.2 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 W · R13 L | 17.2 |
| Eels | R8 L · R9 L · R10 W · R11 L · R13 L | 19.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R7 | Eels | 38 – 20 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R14 | Bulldogs | 30 – 12 | Eels |
| 2025 | R3 | Eels | 8 – 16 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R14 | Bulldogs | 22 – 18 | Eels |
| 2024 | R1 | Eels | 26 – 8 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.17 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (2 conceded/game). Key man: Kiraz, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 5th-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 12th there (1.92 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.17/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 10th) | 1/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.33/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.92/g (def 12th) | 2/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 2.33/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.42/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 11th) | 0.92/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.42/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 8 | 8 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 252m/g | 136m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88% | 81.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 36 | 26 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 823m/g | 679m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.2/g | 14.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.4% | 77% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 7 | 6 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 461m/g | 484m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.5% | 88.4% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.1) +70% · Centres 1.05/g (lg 0.72) +46% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Wingers 1.37/g (lg 1.28) +7% · Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.44/g (lg 0.46) -4%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 6 in 8g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 2/8g | 12/34g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jethro Rinakama | RES | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 4/6g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 46% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/6g | 6/26g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/15g | 19/35g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| 5 | Enari Tuala | WG | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/6g | 5/15g | 32% | — | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 16/41g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 6/14g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 1/41g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Sitili Tupouniua | 2R | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 6/18g | 26% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 12 | Jaeman Salmon | 2R | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/34g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Harry Hayes | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/26g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Jed Reardon | RES | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Underhill | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Curran | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 5/25g | 14% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 3 in 5g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 5/13g | 3/6g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/6g | 1/5g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 10/9g | 24/34g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.74 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Joash Papalii | 5/8 | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 7 | Ronald Volkman | HB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 1/1g | 21% | — | — |
| 8 | Luca Moretti | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 10 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/21g | 0/21g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/21g | 8/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Harrison Edwards | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1354 · Eels 1352 · ELO difference: 2 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 829 | 868 | Eels +39 |
| Backs | 848 | 859 | Eels +11 |
| Halves | 838 | 833 | Bulldogs +5 |
| Hooker | 849 | 865 | Eels +16 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Eels |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-08 07:58 UTC (latest tip update)