Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 6.4 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 26 points came in 20 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (107 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 20 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Bulldogs bucked the trend, Eels historically win 56% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
62%
Eels
38%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 2 of 7 key factors including Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 6.4 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.52
Winner ✓
Edge
-0.9%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | R9L R10L R11L R12W R13L older → newer | 17.2 |
Eels | R8L R9L R10W R11L R13L | 19.0 |
Avg Conceded
30.4
Bulldogs
32.2
Eels
Avg Margin
-13.2
Bulldogs
-13.2
Eels
Run Metres
1723
Bulldogs
1642
Eels
Line Breaks
4.6
Bulldogs
4.2
Eels
Referee Indicator
Favours EelsTodd Smith
107 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Eels hold a 12-point edge: 9W–7L (56%) vs Bulldogs's 4W–5L (44%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.3
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Bulldogs get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Eels's -1.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +6.4
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.