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NRL | Round 14

alphr.com.au

BRI
Broncos
VS
GLD
Titans
SUNCORP STADIUM, BRISBANE • SATURDAY 6 JUNE, 7:35 PM AEST

AI Win Probability

66%BroncosFavourite

Broncos

66%

Titans

34%

AI Match Overview

Broncos are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Broncos ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Broncos carry a 147-point ELO rating advantage (1444 vs 1297). Recent form favours Broncos with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Titans. The margin model predicts Broncos by 11.0 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Broncos to Win @1.44

Edge

-0.1%

Line / Spread

Broncos -7.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Broncos 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 50.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Broncos
R8W
R9L
R10L
R11L
R13L

older → newer

19.6
Titans
R7L
R9L
R10L
R11L
R12L
13.2

Avg Conceded

30.8

Broncos

26.4

Titans

Avg Margin

-11.2

Broncos

-13.2

Titans

Run Metres

1388

Broncos

1656

Titans

Line Breaks

4.2

Broncos

4.6

Titans

H2H History (Last 5)Broncos lead 3-2
Apr 2026BRI 26 - 12 GLD
Jul 2025BRI 26 - 14 GLD
Jun 2025BRI 44 - 14 GLD
Aug 2024BRI 18 - 46 GLD
May 2024BRI 34 - 36 GLD
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

BRI
1444Overall1297
GLD
ELO difference: +147 in favour of Broncos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

979Forwards808
BRI +170
956Backs761
BRI +195
905Halves802
BRI +103
910Hooker814
BRI +96

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

BRI
Stat
GLD
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
19.6pts
Avg Score
13.2pts
30.8pts
Avg Conceded
26.4pts
-11.2pts
Avg Margin
-13.2pts
1387.8m
Run Metres
1656.4m
4.2
Line Breaks
4.6
352.2
Tackles
365.0
12.0
Errors
14.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Broncos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Broncos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Broncos
4
Halves Control9.0%
Broncos
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Broncos
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Broncos
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Broncos

Model Confidence

66%

Broncos predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: +11.0

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays
AJ Brimson
backFair 3.242+ 5%
$3.45
+1.8% edge
Model
31%
Market
29%
Confidence
31%
Jojo Fifita
backFair 2.542+ 9%
$2.50
-0.6% edge
Model
39%
Market
40%
Confidence
39%
Phillip Sami
backFair 2.512+ 9%
$2.03
-9.4% edge
Model
40%
Market
49%
Confidence
40%
Kotoni Staggs
backFair 2.922+ 7%
$2.07
-14.0% edge
Model
34%
Market
48%
Confidence
34%
Reece Walsh
backFair 2.362+ 11%
$1.68
-17.2% edge
Model
42%
Market
60%
Confidence
42%
Keano Kini
backFair 7.112+ 1%
$3.00
-19.3% edge
Model
14%
Market
33%
Confidence
14%
Josiah Karapani
backFair 2.722+ 8%
$1.68
-22.8% edge
Model
37%
Market
60%
Confidence
37%
Jesse Arthars
backFair 2.572+ 9%
$1.61
-23.1% edge
Model
39%
Market
62%
Confidence
39%
Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays
Jojo Fifita
backFair 7.262+ 9%
$14.00
+6.6% edge
Model
14%
Market
7%
Confidence
14%
Phillip Sami
backFair 7.162+ 9%
$11.00
+4.9% edge
Model
14%
Market
9%
Confidence
14%
AJ Brimson
backFair 9.872+ 5%
$17.00
+4.2% edge
Model
10%
Market
6%
Confidence
10%
Reece Walsh
backFair 6.852+ 11%
$8.00
+2.1% edge
Model
15%
Market
13%
Confidence
15%
Kotoni Staggs
backFair 8.972+ 7%
$11.00
+2.1% edge
Model
11%
Market
9%
Confidence
11%