AI Win Probability
Broncos
66%
Titans
34%
AI Match Overview
Broncos are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Broncos ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Broncos carry a 147-point ELO rating advantage (1444 vs 1297). Recent form favours Broncos with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Titans. The margin model predicts Broncos by 11.0 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.44
Edge
-0.1%
Line / Spread
Broncos -7.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Broncos 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | R8W R9L R10L R11L R13L older → newer | 19.6 |
Titans | R7L R9L R10L R11L R12L | 13.2 |
Avg Conceded
30.8
Broncos
26.4
Titans
Avg Margin
-11.2
Broncos
-13.2
Titans
Run Metres
1388
Broncos
1656
Titans
Line Breaks
4.2
Broncos
4.6
Titans
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Broncos predicted to win by 11 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: +11.0
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.