# Broncos v Titans — NRL Round 14 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 23 – 28 Titans

_Titans hit back to muscle past Broncos._

Half time: 12 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 66% / Titans 34% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 06 June, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Brendan Piakura (20' 1st), Kotoni Staggs (22' Tipped ⚡), Jesse Arthars (57' Tipped ⚡), Grant Anderson (67') · Titans: Kurtis Morrin (30'), Phillip Sami (37' Tipped ⚡), Jayden Campbell (48'), Jayden Campbell (54'), Keano Kini (76' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 66% | Lost |
| Titans | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 11.0 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 14 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:54 pm · Last updated: 6 June 2026, 09:27 pm_

Broncos 23–28 Titans in NRL Round 14 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Titans beat Broncos 28-23 at Suncorp Stadium, and on the raw scoreline that looks like a five-point arm-wrestle. Look at the stat sheet and it reads like a hiding the other way. Broncos ran 1,916 metres to 1,800, broke the line eight times to five, busted 37 tackles to 29, and completed at 84% against Titans' 74%. They still lost.

The shape of the game explains how. Broncos raced out through Brendan Piakura in the 19th minute and Kotoni Staggs three minutes later, up 10-0 before Titans had troubled the scoreboard. Kurtis Morrin and Phillip Sami hit back either side of the 30-minute mark, and Titans went to the break down just 12-10, a manageable margin for a side that had done far less of the heavy lifting. Then the second half turned into a different contest entirely.

Jayden Campbell scored twice in five minutes, in the 48th and 53rd, and suddenly Titans led 12-20 having barely had the ball. Broncos hit back through Jesse Arthars and Grant Anderson to get within two, and Adam Reynolds' field goal in the 72nd minute nudged them in front, 23-22. Keano Kini answered four minutes later, and that was the game, Titans home 23-28.

The numbers say Broncos should have won this by more than a converted try. Their forward pack rated 979 to Titans' 808 pre-match, the backs 956 to 761, and it showed everywhere except the scoreboard: more post-contact metres, 692 to 612, more offloads, 8 to 5, and more territory off the boot, 764 metres to 642. Broncos also conceded more penalties, 5 to 2, and that discipline gap gave Titans field position they didn't earn through general play. Titans missed 37 tackles to Broncos' 29 and still found four try-scorers in the back half of the game. When the chances came, they took them. Broncos, for all the front-foot footy, didn't cash in often enough when it counted.

Form lines make the upset sharper. Titans arrived on a five-game losing run, LLLLL, averaging 13.2 points a game and conceding 26.4.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 12 | 11 | 23 |
| Titans | 10 | 18 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **84%** | Completion rate | 74% |
| **1,916** | Run metres | 1,800 |
| **692** | Post-contact metres | 612 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **8** | Offloads | 5 |
| **89.9%** | Effective tackle % | 86.8% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| **764** | Kick metres | 642 |

**Model Report Card**

Titans defied the model's 66% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 11.0 but the actual margin was 5 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 51, within 3 points. Titans trailed 12–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 23–28. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 19' Try — Brendan Piakura (Broncos) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 22' Try — Kotoni Staggs (Broncos) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 29' Try — Kurtis Morrin (Titans) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 37' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 48' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 12-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 53' Try — Jayden Campbell (Titans) — 12-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 56' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 16-22 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 66' Try — Grant Anderson (Broncos) — 20-22 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 72' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Adam Reynolds (Broncos) — 23-22 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 76' Try — Keano Kini (Titans) — 23-26 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.44 (edge -0.1%) — model probability 66.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 11 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Broncos here: 66% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 147 ELO points clear, 1444 to 1297. Form leans Broncos' way: 1 from their last 5, against 0 for Titans.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Broncos by 11.0, with the two sides combining for about 48. Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Broncos have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Titans took the most recent meeting 28-23 in 2026 Round 14.

Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four; Broncos are 2-10 at home this year. Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Broncos 3, Titans 3.

On the ladder it's Broncos 11th against Titans 16th.

The market has Broncos favourites, Broncos $1.44 and Titans $2.80, with the line at Broncos -7.5 and the total at 50.5.

Titans come in fresher, 14 days between games against 6.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 6 · Titans 4 |
| Last meeting | Titans 28-23 |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos at home | 2-10 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 11th · Titans 16th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 0% · Titans 0% |
| Market | Broncos $1.44 · Titans $2.80 |
| Line | Broncos -7.5 · total 50.5 |
| Rest gap | Broncos 6d · Titans 14d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 13.2pts |
| 30.8pts | Avg Conceded | 26.4pts |
| -11.2pts | Avg Margin | -13.2pts |
| 1387.8m | Run Metres | 1656.4m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 352.2 | Tackles | 365.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 14.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | R8 W · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R13 L | 19.6 |
| Titans | R7 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L · R12 L | 13.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R5 | Titans | 12 – 26 | Broncos | Broncos 63% ✓ |
| 2025 | R19 | Titans | 14 – 26 | Broncos | not priced |
| 2025 | R14 | Broncos | 44 – 14 | Titans | not priced |
| 2024 | R22 | Titans | 46 – 18 | Broncos | not priced |
| 2024 | R12 | Broncos | 34 – 36 | Titans | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 10th there (1.82 conceded/game). Key man: Walsh, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1.09 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 7th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.08/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 7th) | 1.09/g (att 10th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.67/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.92/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.09/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.82/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.83/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.82/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 11 | 6 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 135m/g | 191m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 87.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 30 | 17 · 36 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 627m/g | 738m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.5/g | 15.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79% | 79.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 6 | 6 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 542m/g | 474m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90% | 90.5% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.73/g (lg 0.42) +74% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.17) +29% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.27) +26%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.22/g (lg 0.13) +69% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Centres 0.92/g (lg 0.72) +28%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·2·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 23/41g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.68 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 10/22g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.68 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·2·1·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 48/86g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| 4 | Grant Anderson | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 3/13g | 28% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/8g | 20/55g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.61 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' |
| 6 | Thomas Duffy | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/19g | 12/65g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Preston Riki | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/49g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 9/85g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/31g | 10% | — | 🏉 20' |
| 12 | Jack Gosiewski | 2R | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 4/21g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Xavier Willison | LK | 4 in 12g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 8/37g | 24% | — | — |
| 14 | Ben Hunt | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 13/29g | 26/118g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Ben Talty | INT | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 3/11g | 22% | — | — |
| 16 | Va'a Semu | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Aublix Tawha | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/7g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 14% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| 2 | Jensen Taumoepeau | WG | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 7/6g | 2/8g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/12g | 6/15g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/13g | 6/16g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 40% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/9g | 32% | — | 🏉 48' 54' |
| 7 | Zane Harrison | HB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 0/21g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Oliver Pascoe | HK | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 4/15g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Arama Hau | 2R | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 19% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 5/13g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Cooper Bai | LK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 17% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/5g | 14% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 15 | Josh Patston | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Chris Randall | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/10g | 3/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/10g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1444 · Titans 1297 · ELO difference: 147 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 979 | 808 | Broncos +170 |
| Backs | 956 | 761 | Broncos +195 |
| Halves | 905 | 802 | Broncos +103 |
| Hooker | 910 | 814 | Broncos +96 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Broncos predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-06 11:27 UTC (latest tip update)