# Wests Tigers v Bulldogs — NRL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 22 – 16 Bulldogs

_Wests Tigers hold off a fast-finishing Bulldogs._

Half time: 16 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 61% / Bulldogs 39% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 30 May, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Jeral Skelton (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Faaletino Tavana (17' Tipped ⚡), Jahream Bula (28' Tipped ⚡), Jeral Skelton (56' 1st Tipped 🎯) · Bulldogs: Jacob Kiraz (36' Tipped ⚡), Enari Tuala (47'), Lachlan Galvin (69' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 61% | Won |
| Bulldogs | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.7 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Bulldogs Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 13, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:41 pm · Last updated: 2 June 2026, 11:07 pm_

Wests Tigers 22–16 Bulldogs in NRL Round 13 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers walked off at half-time with a 16-6 lead built on three tries in 28 minutes: Jeral Skelton opened the account in the 9th minute, Faaletino Tavana added one in the 16th, and Jahream Bula crossed in the 28th. Jacob Kiraz got the Bulldogs on the board just before the break, but the first 40 belonged almost entirely to Wests Tigers.

The second half didn't flip the result, but it did narrow the gap. Enari Tuala scored in the 47th minute to bring Canterbury back within six, and for a stretch the margin looked shaky given both sides came into the game averaging an identical minus 16 points across their last five outings. Skelton's second try, his brace for the day, arrived in the 55th minute and pushed the lead back out, but Lachlan Galvin's four-pointer in the 68th minute kept the Bulldogs within striking distance right to the end. Wests Tigers closed it out 22-16 at CommBank Stadium, a final margin a touch under their half-time buffer but enough to get the job done.

Look past the scoreboard and the stat sheet tells a more even story. The Bulldogs held 53% of possession, ran for 1,922 metres to Wests Tigers's 1,579, broke the line six times to four, and busted 56 tackles to 39. That's a real edge in the collision stuff, and it tracks with the pre-match numbers: Canterbury's forward pack was rated only just behind Wests Tigers's (886 to 921), and their carries backed that up all night.

Where Wests Tigers actually won the game was in the areas that don't jump off the page. They completed at 89% against the Bulldogs' 84%, gave away fewer penalties (4 to 6), and kicked for 907 metres compared to just 569, which bought them field position even while conceding the bulk of the ball. Their backline rating, 937 to Canterbury's 822 going in, showed up where it counted too, with Skelton's double and the finishes from Tavana and Bula doing the damage behind a stronger hooker number as well, 940 to 891.

Defensively, it wasn't clean. Wests Tigers missed 56 tackles to the Bulldogs' 39, and their effective tackle rate of 83.6% against 85.0% points to a side that spent long stretches under the pump and had to outscore its way out of trouble rather than shut it

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 16 | 6 | 22 |
| Bulldogs | 6 | 10 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| **89%** | Completion rate | 84% |
| 1,579 | Run metres | **1,922** |
| 555 | Post-contact metres | **593** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 39 | Tackle breaks | **56** |
| 13 | Offloads | **14** |
| 83.6% | Effective tackle % | **85.0%** |
| 56 | Missed tackles | **39** |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **907** | Kick metres | 569 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 61% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Wests Tigers by 6.7 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The model went 10/17 on this match. Wests Tigers covered the 4.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 6 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 16' Try — Faaletino Tavana (Wests Tigers) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 28' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 36' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 16-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 47' Try — Enari Tuala (Bulldogs) — 16-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 55' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 20-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 68' Try — Lachlan Galvin (Bulldogs) — 22-14 · win-prob swing -3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.56 (edge +0.4%) — model probability 61.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Wests Tigers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Wests Tigers by 7 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wests Tigers are the call at 61%, but Bulldogs stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Wests Tigers sit 63 ELO points clear, 1418 to 1354.

Wests Tigers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Wests Tigers by 6.7, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Wests Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 10th against Bulldogs 13th.

The market has Wests Tigers favourites, Wests Tigers $1.56 and Bulldogs $2.44, with the line at Wests Tigers -4.5 and the total at 48.5.

Peter Gough has the whistle: 17.5 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.8 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 5 · Bulldogs 5 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 32-0 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 10th · Bulldogs 13th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Bulldogs 0% |
| Market | Wests Tigers $1.56 · Bulldogs $2.44 |
| Line | Wests Tigers -4.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Peter Gough · 17.5 pens/g · 0.8 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Peter Gough** — 183 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 9W–16L | 36% |
| Bulldogs | 10W–19L | 34% |

Avg total: 44.2 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Peter Gough, Wests Tigers 9W–16L (36%) and Bulldogs 10W–19L (34%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Wests Tigers get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Bulldogs's -0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.4pts | Avg Score | 16.4pts |
| 35.4pts | Avg Conceded | 32.4pts |
| -16.0pts | Avg Margin | -16.0pts |
| 1640.0m | Run Metres | 1681.6m |
| 4.8 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 300.0 | Tackles | 300.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 1W–4L | 19.4 |
| Bulldogs | 1W–4L | 16.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Bulldogs | 32 – 0 | Wests Tigers |
| 2025 | R22 | Wests Tigers | 28 – 14 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R9 | Bulldogs | 22 – 14 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R3 | Bulldogs | 26 – 22 | Wests Tigers |
| 2022 | R15 | Bulldogs | 36 – 12 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 11th there (1.27 conceded/game). Key man: Pearce-Paul, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the middle: NRL's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.36 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 12th there (1.9 conceded/game). Key man: Galvin, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 8th) | 1.09/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.36/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.7/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.9/g (def 12th) | 1.36/g (att 12th) · concedes 2/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.5/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.7/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.45/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 7th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 5 | 7 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 254m/g | 252m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 88.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 30 | 15 · 32 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 727m/g | 812m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.2/g | 14.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 78.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 9 | 9 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 548m/g | 458m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.2/g | 6.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.6% | 91% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Wingers 1.34/g (lg 1.27) +6% · Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.45/g (lg 0.46) -2%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.24/g (lg 0.16) +50% · Fullbacks 0.62/g (lg 0.43) +44% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.27) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 5 in 7g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 1/2g | 4/8g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.81 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 25% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' |
| 2 | Jeral Skelton | WG | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 4/5g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.82 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 15% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 9' 56' |
| 3 | Sunia Turuva | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/9g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Heamasi Makasini | CE | 1 in 6g | 2/7g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 29% | — | — |
| 5 | Faaletino Tavana | WG | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 67% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/13g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jock Madden | HB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/14g | 1/14g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Sione Fainu | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Latu Fainu | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/18g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Royce Hunt | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Charlie Murray | RES | 0 in 1g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacob Kiraz | FB | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 3/5g | 3/9g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 36' |
| 2 | Jethro Rinakama | WG | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 25% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Enari Tuala | WG | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/10g | 1/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/11g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 69' |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Kurt Mann | HK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 3/10g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Sitili Tupouniua | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 2/10g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaeman Salmon | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/12g | 10% | — | — |
| 13 | Harry Hayes | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Jed Reardon | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Underhill | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Curran | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 1/6g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1418 · Bulldogs 1354 · ELO difference: 63 in favour of Wests Tigers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 921 | 886 | Wests Tigers +34 |
| Backs | 937 | 822 | Wests Tigers +115 |
| Halves | 886 | 855 | Wests Tigers +31 |
| Hooker | 940 | 891 | Wests Tigers +50 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-02 13:07 UTC (latest tip update)