# Storm v Roosters — NRL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 18 – 4 Roosters

_Storm thunder past Roosters._

Half time: 6 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 45% / Roosters 55% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Sat, 30 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Harry Grant (26' 1st Tipped ⚡), Will Warbrick (53' Tipped ⚡), Moses Leo (62' Tipped ⚡) · Roosters: Billy Smith (35' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 55% | Lost |
| Storm | 45% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.3 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:41 pm · Last updated: 3 June 2026, 12:31 pm_

Storm 18–4 Roosters in NRL Round 13 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had this one close on paper and wrong in practice. Roosters came in rated at 1556 to Storm's 1481, installed as 55% favourites, with the margin read picking Storm by just 0.3 points and a combined total near 46. Storm won by 14, 18-4, and the game finished at 22 points, nowhere near that projected shootout. When a model misses, it's worth asking why, and this one has an answer sitting in the stat sheet.

On paper, Roosters had the better roster in every position group. Forwards rated 1077 to 971, backs 1024 to 971, halves 1047 to 949, hooker 1031 to 972. Add in recent form, Roosters winning four of their last five to Storm's two, averaging 35.6 points a game against Storm's 22.8, and the case for backing the visitors looked reasonable. None of it showed up on the field.

Storm led 6-4 at the break, built off Harry Grant's try in the 25th minute, the only score of note before Billy Smith crossed for Roosters in the 34th to make it 6-4. That was as close as Roosters got. Will Warbrick stretched it to 10-4 in the 53rd, Moses Leo made it 16-4 in the 62nd, and by the time Sam Walker was sin-binned in the 79th the contest was already decided.

The gap between the ratings and the result comes down to how each side handled the ball. Storm completed at 91% and coughed up just 9 errors. Roosters completed at 61% and gave it away 18 times, conceding twice as many penalties too, 8 to 4. You can have the better squad on paper and still hand the other side the ball back all night.

Storm also had the ascendancy in the collisions that matter for field position. Storm ran for 1,864 metres to Roosters' 1,564, broke the line seven times to three, busted 42 tackles to 20 and offloaded 14 times to Roosters' 7. Roosters' one clear win in the stat column was post-contact metres, 612 to 555, evidence they were hard to bring down individually even as the team shape fell apart around them. Their defence was the bigger issue, missing 42 tackles to Storm's 20, an effective rate of just 85.9% against Storm's 91.1%.

Storm's control with the boot rounded it out, 662 kick metres to 301, letting them dictate territory while Roosters chased field position they never really found.

The model went 6 from 17 on the various markets around this one. It called the under on the 48.5 total correctly, and Storm covered the 1.5-point line, but the head-to-head pick and the margin were both off. Ratings and recent form pointed one way.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 6 | 12 | 18 |
| Roosters | 4 | 0 | 4 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **58%** | Possession | 42% |
| **91%** | Completion rate | 61% |
| **1,864** | Run metres | 1,564 |
| 555 | Post-contact metres | **612** |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **42** | Tackle breaks | 20 |
| **14** | Offloads | 7 |
| **91.1%** | Effective tackle % | 85.9% |
| **20** | Missed tackles | 42 |
| **9** | Errors | 18 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **662** | Kick metres | 301 |

**Model Report Card**

Storm defied the model's 55% prediction for Roosters, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.3 but the actual margin was 14 points. The game's 22 points came in 24 points lower than the predicted 46. Storm led 6–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 14. The model went 6/17 on this match. Storm covered the 1.5-point line. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (319 career games). The combined score of 22 points was 21 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 25' Try — Harry Grant (Storm) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 34' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 53' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 62' Try — Moses Leo (Storm) — 16-4 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 79' Sin Bin — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 16-4 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.81 (edge +2.1%) — model probability 55.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 0 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 55%, but Storm stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 74 ELO points clear, 1556 to 1481. Form leans Roosters' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Storm.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 14-6 in 2026 Round 20.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games. Roosters have won 3 straight. Roosters have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Storm 15th against Roosters 3rd.

The market has Roosters favourites, Storm $2.04 and Roosters $1.81, with the line at Storm +1.5 and the total at 48.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 18.6 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.7 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 8 · Roosters 2 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 14-6 |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm at home | 7-5 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWW · 113 for, 67 against |
| Roosters away | 9-5 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 15th · Roosters 3rd |
| Finals odds | Storm 0% · Roosters 100% |
| Market | Storm $2.04 · Roosters $1.81 |
| Line | Storm +1.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 18.6 pens/g · 0.7 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 319 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 34W–18L | 65% |
| Roosters | 35W–21L | 63% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Storm 34W–18L (65%) and Roosters 35W–21L (63%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Storm get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Roosters's -0.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 35.6pts |
| 26.0pts | Avg Conceded | 18.8pts |
| -3.2pts | Avg Margin | 16.8pts |
| 1596.6m | Run Metres | 1891.8m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 300.0 | Tackles | 300.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 2W–3L | 22.8 |
| Roosters | 4W–1L | 35.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Roosters | 14 – 6 | Storm |
| 2025 | R26 | Storm | 10 – 40 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R21 | Roosters | 30 – 34 | Storm |
| 2024 | PF | Storm | 48 – 18 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R20 | Storm | 24 – 8 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.17 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 10th there (1.8 conceded/game). Key man: Faalogo, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.3 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 15th there (1.58 conceded/game). Key man: Toia, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 15th (weak)) | 0.9/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 2.17/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 2/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.8/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.58/g (def 15th (weak)) | 2.3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 4 | 11 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 234m/g | 194m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 88.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 38 | 34 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 2.5/g |
| Run Metres | 675m/g | 766m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.2/g | 19.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.3% | 79.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 13 | 5 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 483m/g | 549m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 10.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 91.3% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.16) +19% · Fullbacks 0.48/g (lg 0.43) +12%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.39/g (lg 1.27) +9% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.73) -3% · 2nd Rows 0.38/g (lg 0.46) -17%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 12 in 12g | 7/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 9/14g | 53% | — | — |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 9 in 12g | 7/10g (0·4·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/7g | 17/30g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 4 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/4g | 6/23g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 24% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 19/49g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Moses Leo | WG | 5 in 7g | 5/9g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 62' |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 5/21g | 36/106g | 16% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 10/17g | 32/73g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/19g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | INT | 5 in 11g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 3/10g | 20/52g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/13g | 7/51g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/36g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Ativalu Lisati | 2R | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/9g | 21% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 4/51g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | HK | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Clarke | 2R | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Josiah Pahulu | RES | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 7/23g | 4/9g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Billy Smith | WG | 1 in 2g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 52% ✓ Scored | 🏉 35' |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Cody Ramsey | WG | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/28g | 0/11g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/5g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/16g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 1/10g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 1/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/8g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1481 · Roosters 1556 · ELO difference: 74 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 971 | 1077 | Roosters +106 |
| Backs | 971 | 1024 | Roosters +52 |
| Halves | 949 | 1047 | Roosters +98 |
| Hooker | 972 | 1031 | Roosters +59 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Roosters favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-03 02:31 UTC (latest tip update)