# Sharks v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 28 – 22 Sea Eagles

_Sharks survive a scare against Sea Eagles._

Half time: 22 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 51% / Sea Eagles 49% · Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 29 May, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Niwhai Puru (9' 1st), Teig Wilton (31'), Billy Burns (36'), Billy Burns (40'), Braydon Trindall (51') · Sea Eagles: Clayton Faulalo (22' Tipped ⚡), Ben Trbojevic (47'), Jason Saab (54' Tipped ⚡), Jamal Fogarty (57')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 51% | Won |
| Sea Eagles | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.4 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:41 pm · Last updated: 2 June 2026, 07:59 pm_

Sharks 28–22 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 13 at Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sea Eagles arrived with the better recent form, four wins from their last five and a defence that had been leaking just 13.6 points a game. None of that showed up early at Ocean Protect Stadium, and by the time it did, the job was already too big.

The completion numbers tell you where it went wrong. Manly finished at 75%, coughing the ball up 15 times to the Sharks' 7. Add in 27 missed tackles and five penalties conceded, and you've got a side handing back cheap ball and cheap metres all match. Their forward pack was rated the stronger unit coming in, 1086 to 1073, and the hooker spot even more so at 1102 to 1050, but none of that paper edge showed up on the sheet where it mattered. The Sharks out-carried them 1,663 metres to 1,397, and out-kicked them for territory too, 696 metres to Manly's 730 not translating into pressure.

By half-time the Sharks led 22-4, built through Niwhai Puru opening the scoring in the 8th minute, Teig Wilton crossing at 30, and Billy Burns doubling up either side of the break at 35 and 40. Clayton Faulalo's try in between, at 21 minutes, was the only reply Manly could manage across 40 minutes of increasingly one-sided footy.

Give the Sea Eagles this much: they didn't fold. Ben Trbojevic scored at 47, Jason Saab at 54, Jamal Fogarty at 56, three tries in nine minutes that turned a laughable scoreboard into something resembling a contest. Braydon Trindall's try for the Sharks at 50 kept a gap in there, and it proved just enough. Manly's line breaks matched the Sharks four for four, and their tackle busts weren't far behind either, 23 to the Sharks' 27, so the ability to hurt them was clearly there. It just came alongside too much ball spilled at the wrong end of the ground.

The Sharks won this with the boring stuff. Just seven errors against Manly's 15, a 95% completion rate, 525 post-contact metres from bodies that kept the legs pumping after contact. Cronulla's halves were rated the stronger pairing pre-match, 1085 to 1049, and a performance that clinical with ball in hand backs that up. Possession sat at 52-48 their way too, not a landslide, but enough control to keep building scoreboard pressure while Manly chased it.

Discipline mattered as well. The Sharks gave away just three penalties to Manly's five, one more small edge in a match where none of the individual numbers were huge but all of them pointed the same way.

Alphr's model had the Sharks in front at 51% and picked a margin of 1.4 points against a combined total of 43. The actual result landed at 28-22, a six-point margin, in a match that blew well past that combined total once Manly's back end got moving.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 22 | 6 | 28 |
| Sea Eagles | 4 | 18 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **95%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,663** | Run metres | 1,397 |
| **525** | Post-contact metres | 468 |
| 4 | Line breaks | 4 |
| **27** | Tackle breaks | 23 |
| **12** | Offloads | 11 |
| 88.7% | Effective tackle % | **89.2%** |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 27 |
| **7** | Errors | 15 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| 696 | Kick metres | **730** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 51% probability. The predicted margin of 1.4 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The model went 5/17 on this match. Sharks covered the 0.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (106 career games). The 50-point combined total was right in line with Todd Smith's career average of 46. Sharks's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Sharks have a 67% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — Niwhai Puru (Sharks) — 6-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 21' Try — Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — 8-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 30' Try — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 12-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 35' Try — Billy Burns (Sharks) — 18-4 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 40' Try — Billy Burns (Sharks) — 22-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 47' Try — Ben Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 22-8 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 50' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 26-10 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 54' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 26-14 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 56' Try — Jamal Fogarty (Sea Eagles) — 26-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.87 (edge -0.1%) — model probability 51.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 1 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Sharks and Sea Eagles. The model can't split them, landing on Sharks at 51%. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Sharks.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Halves Control, Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Sharks by 1.4, with the two sides combining for about 43. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Sharks have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 48-12 in 2026 Round 21.

Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Sharks 9th against Sea Eagles 4th.

The market has Sharks favourites, Sharks $1.87 and Sea Eagles $1.98, with the line at Sharks -0.5 and the total at 46.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 15.3 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 8 · Sea Eagles 2 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 48-12 |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks at home | 9-4 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 9th · Sea Eagles 4th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Market | Sharks $1.87 · Sea Eagles $1.98 |
| Line | Sharks -0.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 15.3 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Todd Smith** — 106 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 10W–5L | 67% |
| Sea Eagles | 7W–5L | 58% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Sharks hold a 9-point edge: 10W–5L (67%) vs Sea Eagles's 7W–5L (58%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Sea Eagles get a +1.2 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Sharks's +0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 31.6pts | Avg Score | 27.8pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 13.6pts |
| 3.2pts | Avg Margin | 14.2pts |
| 1631.4m | Run Metres | 1813.8m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 7.4 |
| 300.0 | Tackles | 300.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 2W–3L | 31.6 |
| Sea Eagles | 4W–1L | 27.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Sea Eagles | 12 – 48 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R10 | Sea Eagles | 14 – 30 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R6 | Sharks | 24 – 18 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R27 | Sea Eagles | 20 – 40 | Sharks |
| 2023 | R21 | Sharks | 26 – 30 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the right edge: NRL's 9th-ranked right edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 7th there (1.18 conceded/game). Key man: Wilton, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.73 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 14th there (1.6 conceded/game). Key man: Hopoate, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.7/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.73/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.1/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2.09/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.3/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th) | 1.09/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.18/g (def 7th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 8 | 7 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 3.2/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 180m/g | 162m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.1% | 83.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 29 | 34 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 739m/g | 760m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.6/g | 13.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 4.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.4% | 76.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 8 | 10 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 456m/g | 569m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 10.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.7% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25% · Wingers 1.3/g (lg 1.27) +2% · Halfbacks 0.21/g (lg 0.22) -5%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.1) +70% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Centres 0.72/g (lg 0.73) -1%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ocean Protect Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/7g | 3/4g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 2/4g | 40% | — | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 2/3g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 10% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 2 in 1g | 13/10g (1·2·0·2·3·0·2·1·0·2) | 7/8g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 3/4g | 30% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 7 | Niwhai Puru | HB | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·3·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/3g | 24% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jesse Colquhoun | INT | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Billy Burns | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 16% | — | 🏉 36' 40' |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Faulalo | FB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| 3 | Josh Feledy | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (0·0·0·2·1·2·1·1·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 72% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 16% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Kobe Hetherington | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jackson Shereb | 2R | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Brandon Wakeham | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Simione Laiafi | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sea Eagles hold the ELO advantage (1576 vs 1560), but the market favours Sharks (@1.87). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1560 · Sea Eagles 1576 · ELO difference: 17 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1073 | 1086 | Sea Eagles +13 |
| Backs | 1093 | 1087 | Sharks +6 |
| Halves | 1085 | 1049 | Sharks +36 |
| Hooker | 1050 | 1102 | Sea Eagles +52 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sharks |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Sharks predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-02 09:59 UTC (latest tip update)