# Raiders v Cowboys — NRL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 26 – 12 Cowboys

_Raiders ransack Cowboys._

Half time: 18 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 61% / Cowboys 39% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sun, 31 May, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Sebastian Kris (12' 1st Tipped ⚡), Kaeo Weekes (15' Tipped ⚡), Tom Starling (17'), Ethan Strange (38' Tipped ⚡), Sebastian Kris (44' 1st Tipped ⚡), Xavier Savage (61') · Cowboys: Liam Sutton (26'), Heilum Luki (74' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 61% | Won |
| Cowboys | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.4 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:41 pm · Last updated: 2 June 2026, 09:04 pm_

Raiders 26–12 Cowboys in NRL Round 13 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had the Raiders as 61% favourites, tipped to win by 4.4 points with the game landing around 43 total points. They won by 14, and the two scores add up to 38. Direction right, size wrong, and the gap tells its own story about how one-sided the opening stretch actually was.

By the 16th minute Canberra had scored three tries and led 12-0. Sebastian Kris opened it, Kaeo Weekes followed two minutes later, then Tom Starling crossed to make it a procession. The Cowboys got one back through Liam Sutton in the 25th, but Ethan Strange restored the buffer before the break and the Raiders went to the sheds up 18-6. Kris added his second early in the second half to push it to 22-6, and Xavier Savage's try in the 60th made it 26-6 before Heilum Luki's four-pointer in the 74th tidied up the final margin. Canberra had built an 18-point head start inside the first 44 minutes, and the Cowboys were working uphill from there.

The pre-match ratings had Cowboys stronger in three of four key positional groups: forwards 1005 to 973, halves 1012 to 951, hooker 1007 to 961. On paper that's the kind of edge that controls a match. On the day it barely showed. Canberra ran for 2,004 metres to the Cowboys' 1,828 and put on 651 post-contact metres against 557, the sort of collision dominance you'd expect from the better forward pack, not the other way round. Seven line breaks to four and 52 tackle breaks to 45 back that up. Wherever that Cowboys forward advantage was supposed to surface, it didn't.

Where the Cowboys did hold up was with the ball in hand. They completed at 76% and coughed up just 11 errors to Canberra's 13, the tidier side by the numbers. The Cowboys also managed 535 kick metres to the Raiders' 490, so their exits weren't the problem either. Trouble was, none of that mattered much when their defence conceded 52 missed tackles to the Raiders' 45 and an effective tackle rate of 80.0% against 81.1%.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 18 | 8 | 26 |
| Cowboys | 6 | 6 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **2,004** | Run metres | 1,828 |
| **651** | Post-contact metres | 557 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **52** | Tackle breaks | 45 |
| **17** | Offloads | 15 |
| **81.1%** | Effective tackle % | 80.0% |
| **45** | Missed tackles | 52 |
| 13 | Errors | **11** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 490 | Kick metres | **535** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Raiders to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 4.4 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. The model went 6/17 on this match. Raiders covered the 3.5-point line. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 6 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Raiders's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 12' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 14' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 16' Try — Tom Starling (Raiders) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +8 pts
- 25' Try — Liam Sutton (Cowboys) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 37' Try — Ethan Strange (Raiders) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +10 pts
- 44' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 22-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 60' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 74' Try — Heilum Luki (Cowboys) — 26-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.70 (edge +4.9%) — model probability 60.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 61%, but Cowboys stay live at 39%. The ratings say otherwise: Cowboys sit 31 ELO points clear, 1496 to 1464, so the model is backing Raiders against the ratings gap. Form leans Cowboys' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Raiders.

On paper Cowboys shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The model still sides with Raiders, which says Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Raiders by 4.4, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Cowboys have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Raiders took the most recent meeting 50-30 in 2026 Round 27.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Raiders 3, Cowboys 3.

On the ladder it's Raiders 12th against Cowboys 6th.

The market has Raiders favourites, Raiders $1.70 and Cowboys $2.15, with the line at Raiders -3.5 and the total at 53.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 15.9 penalties a game (whistle-happy), home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 3 · Cowboys 7 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 50-30 |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders at home | 5-7 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWLL · 100 for, 118 against |
| Cowboys away | 6-7 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 12th · Cowboys 6th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 0% · Cowboys 100% |
| Market | Raiders $1.70 · Cowboys $2.15 |
| Line | Raiders -3.5 · total 53.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 15.9 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 386 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 24W–28L | 46% |
| Cowboys | 19W–23L | 45% |

Avg total: 43.6 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Raiders 24W–28L (46%) and Cowboys 19W–23L (45%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 30.4pts |
| 25.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.8pts |
| -3.8pts | Avg Margin | 8.6pts |
| 1671.2m | Run Metres | 1761.6m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 7.0 |
| 300.0 | Tackles | 300.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 2W–3L | 21.6 |
| Cowboys | 4W–1L | 30.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R27 | Cowboys | 30 – 50 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R4 | Cowboys | 30 – 20 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R24 | Cowboys | 42 – 4 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R15 | Raiders | 16 – 34 | Cowboys |
| 2023 | R1 | Cowboys | 19 – 18 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.36 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 6th there (1.17 conceded/game). Key man: Tamale, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 15th there (2.27 conceded/game). Key man: Drinkwater, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.73/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 11th) | 1.67/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.27/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.27/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.75/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.58/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.36/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 8th) | 1.25/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.17/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 13 | 10 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 184m/g | 219m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 5.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.8% | 89% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 28 | 36 · 30 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 770m/g | 803m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.2/g | 16.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.8% | 77.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 9 | 9 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 508m/g | 518m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.5/g | 8.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.7% | 89.6% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.29/g (lg 0.16) +81% · Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44% · Centres 0.97/g (lg 0.72) +35% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 14/30g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 8/13g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.81 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/7g | 22/55g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 44' |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 19/54g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 3 in 6g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 19/33g | 46% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 11/26g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 2 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 6/51g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 6/63g | 8% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 10/100g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/9g | 25/66g | 30% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 8/21g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Daine Laurie | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/15g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/38g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/29g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jed Stuart | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/14g | 17% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 7 in 12g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Zac Laybutt | WG | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 37% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Tom Chester | CE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 9 in 7g | 12/10g (1·0·2·2·0·2·1·1·0·3) | 3/8g | 0/2g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Liam Sutton | 5/8 | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 7 | Jake Clifford | HB | 5 in 12g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Mikaele | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 1/12g | 1/5g | 20% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/19g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Heilum Luki | 2R | 6 in 12g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/4g | 2/2g | 34% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| 12 | Sam McIntyre | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Griffin Neame | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Matthew Lodge | LK | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 1 in 12g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 1/4g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Cowboys hold the ELO advantage (1496 vs 1464), but the market favours Raiders (@1.70). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1464 · Cowboys 1496 · ELO difference: 31 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 973 | 1005 | Cowboys +32 |
| Backs | 960 | 962 | Cowboys +2 |
| Halves | 951 | 1012 | Cowboys +61 |
| Hooker | 961 | 1007 | Cowboys +46 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Cowboys |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Cowboys |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Raiders predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-02 11:04 UTC (latest tip update)