# Panthers v Warriors — NRL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 20 – 18 Warriors

_Panthers pounce on Warriors in a tight one._

Half time: 16 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 69% / Warriors 31% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 31 May, 06:15 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Casey McLean (5' 1st), Casey McLean (30' 1st), Paul Alamoti (37'), Paul Alamoti (70') · Warriors: Jacob Laban (16'), Taine Tuaupiki (54'), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 69% | Won |
| Warriors | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.1 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:41 pm · Last updated: 3 June 2026, 01:36 am_

Panthers 20–18 Warriors in NRL Round 13 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Warriors did plenty right at CommBank Stadium and still walked away with nothing to show for it. They out-broke the Panthers for tackle breaks, 40 to 34, ran for more post-contact metres than a two-point margin would suggest, and had the better completion rate on paper look closer than the ledger showed. None of it was enough. Panthers 20, Warriors 18.

Where it slipped for the Warriors was the start. Casey McLean crossed inside five minutes to put Panthers on the board, and while Jacob Laban hit back at the 16th minute to level things at 4-4, that was the last time the scoreboard read even. McLean struck again in the 29th, Paul Alamoti added his first in the 37th, and Panthers went to the break up 16-6. A ten-point buffer built off two line breaks and a completion rate, 92 percent, that let them hold the ball when it mattered.

Second half, the Warriors did exactly what a side down ten points needs to do. Taine Tuaupiki got them within six just after the hour mark, and Alofiana Khan-Pereira's try in the 58th levelled it at 16-16. For a few minutes it looked like the form of the last five weeks, an average margin of 16 points and 31.2 points scored a game, was about to overwrite the ratings gap. Then Alamoti crossed again in the 69th, and Panthers never let the lead go again.

The tackling numbers tell the real story of why the Warriors couldn't finish the job. Panthers missed 40 tackles to the Warriors' 34, which sounds like a Panthers problem until you look at what it cost them: not much, because Panthers still found six line breaks to the Warriors' four, and their forward pack rating, 1248 to 1098 coming in, showed up in 1,718 run metres against 1,638. The Warriors' defence held at 88.7 percent effective, marginally better than Panthers' 88.2, but a marginal edge in a game this tight just wasn't enough ground to make up.

Errors were level at eight apiece, penalties even at four each, so this wasn't decided by discipline. It came down to Panthers converting field position into points more often, helped by a halves rating, 1247 to 1103, and a hooker rating, 1253 to 1077, that were never seriously threatened across 80 minutes.

Alphr's model had Panthers at 69 percent to win and picked the margin at 5.1 points, with a combined total of 41. The actual margin was 2, the actual total 38, both close enough that the model's read on this one holds up. The 1-12 margin band and the under 47.5 total both landed. Across the card the model went 4 from 17, a reminder that even a sharp individual call doesn't drag the rest of the ledger with it.

For the Warriors, the shape of the loss will sting more than the scoreline. They matched Panthers stride for stride in the collisions and briefly dragged the game level at 16-16. But Panthers had the answer each time, and Alamoti's second try settled it with 11 minutes still on the clock.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 16 | 4 | 20 |
| Warriors | 6 | 12 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **92%** | Completion rate | 89% |
| **1,718** | Run metres | 1,638 |
| **599** | Post-contact metres | 595 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 34 | Tackle breaks | **40** |
| **10** | Offloads | 7 |
| 88.2% | Effective tackle % | **88.7%** |
| 40 | Missed tackles | **34** |
| 8 | Errors | 8 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **705** | Kick metres | 695 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 69% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Panthers by 5.1 vs the actual margin of 2 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 38, within 3 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (368 career games). The 38-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Panthers's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Panthers have a 53% win rate under this referee. Panthers's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 16' Try — Jacob Laban (Warriors) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 29' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 37' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 53' Try — Taine Tuaupiki (Warriors) — 16-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 58' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 16-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 69' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 20-18 · win-prob swing +7 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.64 (edge +11.5%) — model probability 69.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 5 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 69% to see off Warriors. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 124 ELO points clear, 1742 to 1617.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 5.1, with the two sides combining for about 41. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Panthers to win, not to win big.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 28-12 in 2026 Round 23.

Panthers are 11-3 at home this year.

On the ladder it's Panthers 1st against Warriors 2nd.

The market has Panthers favourites, Panthers $1.64 and Warriors $2.26, with the line at Panthers -3.5 and the total at 47.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 15.6 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 8 · Warriors 2 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 28-12 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 95 for, 54 against |
| Panthers at home | 11-3 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 1st · Warriors 2nd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Panthers $1.64 · Warriors $2.26 |
| Line | Panthers -3.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 15.6 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Gerard Sutton** — 368 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 33W–29L | 53% |
| Warriors | 10W–15L | 40% |

Avg total: 41.9 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Panthers hold a 13-point edge: 33W–29L (53%) vs Warriors's 10W–15L (40%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 28.6pts | Avg Score | 31.2pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Conceded | 15.2pts |
| 13.8pts | Avg Margin | 16.0pts |
| 1959.2m | Run Metres | 1761.6m |
| 6.4 | Line Breaks | 7.2 |
| 300.0 | Tackles | 300.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 5W–0L | 28.6 |
| Warriors | 5W–0L | 31.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R23 | Warriors | 28 – 12 | Panthers |
| 2025 | FW1 | Warriors | 8 – 24 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R16 | Warriors | 18 – 28 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R11 | Warriors | 22 – 20 | Panthers |
| 2023 | FW1 | Panthers | 32 – 6 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.36 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 3rd there (1.27 conceded/game). Key man: Edwards, 9 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.55 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 1st there (0.91 conceded/game). Key man: Clark, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.18/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.73/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.18/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.73/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.36/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.91/g (def 1st (strong)) | 2.55/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.91/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.73/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 3 | 10 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 203m/g | 150m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.8/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 85.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 39 · 17 | 33 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 875m/g | 633m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21/g | 14.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.6% | 77.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 4 | 16 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 533m/g | 616m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.1/g | 9.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.7% | 89.3% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.83/g (lg 0.72) +15% · Fullbacks 0.48/g (lg 0.42) +14% · Wingers 1.15/g (lg 1.27) -9%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.46/g (lg 0.46) +0% · Hookers 0.12/g (lg 0.14) -14% · Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.42) -19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 9 in 11g | 8/10g (0·2·0·1·1·1·3·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 8/19g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 18 in 11g | 16/10g (2·4·2·2·2·2·0·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 10/12g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.58 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 8/17g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Luke Garner | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/10g | 7/28g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/12g | 30% | — | 🏉 37' 70' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·2·0) | 2/3g | 8/23g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 0/22g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Freddy Lussick | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Henry | PR | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 7/34g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/8g | 4/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Lindsay Smith | LK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/16g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Cole | RES | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Billy Phillips | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Luron Patea | RES | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 14 in 11g | 14/10g (2·0·0·3·2·1·1·1·2·2) | 0/12g | 2/12g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 21% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 21% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 8 in 7g | 8/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·2·2·0·2) | 2/2g | 6/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 65% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 3 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/11g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 19% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 9% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/5g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Marata Niukore | INT | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/12g | 3/36g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1742 · Warriors 1617 · ELO difference: 124 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1248 | 1098 | Panthers +150 |
| Backs | 1234 | 1109 | Panthers +125 |
| Halves | 1247 | 1103 | Panthers +144 |
| Hooker | 1253 | 1077 | Panthers +175 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | — |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Panthers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Panthers predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-02 15:36 UTC (latest tip update)